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Guy,
This is sure getting spooky. Seems like a lot folks are "liking" the long
side. This scares me, always has. With that said: My conservative and eye
poppin' accurate, mechanical system triggered long positions in both the
Emini and Enasty. I hate to join large clubs, but since you are already a
member.... I just hope that the "initiation fees" are too hefty up front.
Back in the saddle again,
Steve Karnish
Cedar Creek Trading
http://www.cedarcreektrading.com
----- Original Message -----
From: Guy Tann <grt@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 6:19 PM
Subject: RE: Going Long
> Scheier
>
> Good points. With the market collapsing today and my brother in a plane
> flying down for a meeting regarding our web site, I turned off the TV,
never
> even fired up the computer and went to the mall and bought myself that new
> KitchenAid Mixer.
>
> We never know which direction the market is going to take. Like you said,
> we don't care. We're traders, period. Up, down, sideways, upside down,
> doesn't matter. As long as we have movement we're happy. We strictly
trade
> probabilities. We know, based upon the last fifteen years or so, that our
> system is right at least 70% of the time, and for the last few years at
> least 80% of the time. Our trading is built around those probabilities.
> When we make a trade, we never know whether we'll be in that trade one day
> or a month. We really don't care. As long as we maintain that 70-80%
> probability of success, we'll make money.
>
> Now, when we're early or wrong, it does get painful, but since we don't
draw
> any money out for expenses, it doesn't hurt as much. We did make an error
> entering our equity positions for this trade. We should have been going
> long the other half of our equities tomorrow morning. We still feel
pretty
> good about the trade. I think the market has factored in the Fed's
interest
> rate increase already and we're do for a bounce.
>
> Now our system is comprised of two major components. One is a home grown
> momentum signal which we couple with an overbought/oversold indicator. It
> appears to work quite well. Let's see what happens with this trade. It's
> possible that this is the one that brings our average down to 75%. :)
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of scheier
> Sent: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 3:39 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Going Long
>
> I had to laugh at your sarcasm and your point is well made. But I think
> Jean
> Jacques' original question is actually a fair one, just poorly worded.
If
> he
> had said, "Why are you buying in a downtrend" instead of using that
> debatable
> term `Bear Market', his point would have perhaps been better made.
>
> And I think the question is a good one, and fair game for any of us who
> stick
> our necks out with possible trades. For with the series of trend
> continuation
> patterns we have had in the Nasdaq off the recent high--first, the 3 day
> Gann
> Pullback, and then the A-B-C correction--the opportunities for selling
short
> and
> going with the trend have far outweighed the chances of picking the right
> stock
> to buck this--yes, let's call a spade a spade--Bear Market.
>
> As for absolutely positively knowing ANYTHING before taking a trade, that
> is, of
> course, absurdly impossible and would prevent us from ever being able to
> even
> pick up the phone to place a trade. But I'll go farther, you don't have
to
> assume you know which way the market is going before you position yourself
> with
> an order. In fact, most of the mistakes traders make come from the
> assumption
> that, in fact, they know which way the market is going when they take a
> position.
>
> Then how does one trade without such a trend opinion? You simply
identify
> behavior patterns, and position yourself around them with stops. If they
> trigger, go with the movement. If they do not, shrug your shoulders and
look
> for
> the next set up. The best traders I have ever met in the market place
> always
> have this attitude: I don't care which way it goes, and I don't need to
know
> ahead of time.
>
> When I finally arrived at a trading method that could incorporate this
> attitude,
> a HUGE weight was taken from my shoulders. Stress disappeared. And now
I
> often come back to the office in the morning not even remembering whether
I
> had
> taken a short position or a long one in a particular market from the
> previous
> day--that's how little I now think about my positions at night. If
you're
> having trouble putting the markets away at night and forgetting about your
> trading; if you find yourself fantasizing at night about how your trades
are
> going to come out and where your profits will be should your daydreams
come
> true; or if you find yourself worrying at night about your positions and
> find
> you don't sleep well because of them, then you probably took the trades
> based on
> the assumption that you knew which way the market was going to go, instead
> of
> letting the market take you with it at key points around a behavior
pattern.
>
> Just some food for thought....
>
> Scheier
>
>
> Kent Rollins wrote:
>
> > Since you're new to the list, maybe you'd like to tell us how you know
> > absolutely, positively, beyond any shadow of a doubt that we're in a
bear
> > market. While you're at it, how long will it last? Also, will the
small
> > caps, banks, foods, and drugs that have been in a bear market for the
last
> > year or so (2 years in the case of small caps) participate in this bear
> > market? If oil prices stay high, will the oil stocks turn down also or
> will
> > they remain bullish? Where will the market be when the bear market
ends?
> > What about wheat and sugar?
> >
> > Kent
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Macromnt@xxxxxxx <Macromnt@xxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Wednesday, May 10, 2000 1:02 PM
> > Subject: Re: Going Long
> >
> > I am new to this list but I wander what makes someone go long in a bear
> > market. Is it an attempt to catch the bottom (it's always a risky
attempt)
> ?
> >
> > Jean Jacques Chenier
> > Global Management
> > www.trendoscil.com
>
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