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Hi Nicolas,
>...Throw out the TA for now?
NO !!!
I think you already have a good system handy.
Just go with sell signals that follow soon your failed buys. I guess,
the latter indicate prevailing tendency down. Your system clearly says
that the market now is not tendency neutral. I would listen to it :-) .
Mind that many indicators (first and foremost, oscillators) cannot "predict"
a strength of expected move, but usually are good on its timing. So,
an oscillator (if not tuned by shifting crossover levels up/down from neutral)
may produce a buy signal in a down market, but often the most you can get
is a pause or slower for a while move downward .This is why they recommend
to use multiple-time scales combined and other TA instruments (channels,
supp/res levels, ... anything complimentary to oscillators...) to get the
happening into perspective. The very "asymmetric" behavior of your system
offers such perspective.
Again, if one sees a pattern in the markets (this is what you are saying),
one can use it for a profit.
Cheers, Vitaly
Nicholas Kormanik wrote:
> I've noticed recently that many seemingly good TA buy signals in this bear
> market are turning out to be false positives --- prices don't turn up, just
> barely hesitate before heading down to the next lower plateau.
>
> Hmmmm. Throw out the TA for now?
>
> Nicholas
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