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Dirk
All of the readings we've done over the past 40+ years have given ValueLine
credit for beating expectations, and that was why we decided to use their
selections as opposed to our own, complete amateurs in picking stocks,
trying to out-pick them.
What's really embarrassing is that I omitted one stock from my ValueLine
versus our own methodologies and this makes ValueLine look even better.
Tonight's results will include the missing Corning.
As of right now, the three portfolios are reporting the following numbers
real-time.
ValueLine $27.028
SP39 $ 6,600
Our trades $ 400
Even with the DOW down over 200, we're still ahead on all three portfolios
and on our S&P futures.
There's just no comparison when looking at ValueLine's recommendations
versus our own. I think we're seeing the approach we'll use for our next
buy signal.
I wonder how much of the DOW move is caused by the rebalancing of the S&P
500 and triple witching?
Guy
Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Dirk de Vos
Sent: Friday, June 16, 2000 8:33 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: 6-12 Buy Update - ValueLine
Guy and others. I don't use ValueLine, but it is regarded very highly.
Believe
it or
not one of the "kings" of the random markets theory (Malkiel, A Random Walk
Down Wall Street), who does not believe in TA (thinks it's all
luck/coincidence), says
ValueLine is one of his only exceptions. Says ValueLine has consistently
exceeded
random performance in the market for a long time. Mind you, ValueLine is
probably
mainly fundamentals based, but it gives an edge, esp if you use technicals
on it
like Guy..
Guy Tann wrote:
> List,
>
> Well, here's my latest update on our 6/12/00 buy signal. It's alternating
> between our SP39 selection process and the original ValueLine 1-1 picks.
As
> you can see, MY selections are still in last place and I'm hearing about
it
> from various members of the family (in good humor). Actually, my brother
> knows that when trying something new, not everything works the way you
would
> want it to work, and like me, never throws stones. We both know that the
> next foul-up will belong to the other. :)
>
> It still looks like ValueLine is an excellent place to start in terms of
the
> initial selection process. And, no we don't get any referral fee from
> ValueLine. :) I'm sure they don't know of our existance. After 3 days,
our
> SP39 has taken a slight lead and my brilliant idea is still in last place.
> My recommendation would be to try your ideas and don't be afraid. Worse
> case is you'll lose a few bucks. Best case, you'll discover a new trading
> technique for yourself. I would like to emphasize paper trading before
> risking your own money. We didn't do that here, unfortunately, but since
> our selection process in scaling down the ValueLine list has always been
> "seat of pants" for the past six months or so, and we were sticking with
> ValueLine's recommendations, we felt our risk would be small, as long as
our
> buy signal is correct. If, on the other hand, the signal is wrong, we'd
> lose money anyway.
>
> PERCENT RETURN ON 6-12 BUY SIGNAL
> NUMBER 6/13/00 6/14/00 6/15/00
> OF STOCKS
> ValueLine Picks 35 4.91% 1.95% 3.06%
> SP39 Selection 11 3.64% 1.78% 3.48%
> Actual Trades 15 3.61% 0.01% 1.30%
>
> Anyway, I'm just passing on our thought process in selecting our stock
> portfolio for our buy signals. We're working on developing something for
> our sales as well.
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
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