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Guy, not sure about Dow other than earnings jitters (though VIX was looking
"overbought" to me--ie. market too complacent). Your mention of Corning shows
just how good ValueLine is. Corning (GLW) just came out with stellar upside
earnings suprise just this week (even for a company in the high growth fiber
optics market), and the rumor is they might be looking to buy SDL. Makes me
think that one aspect of ValueLine's method is to look for upside earnings
surprises in growth sectors or high relative strength stocks. Whatever they do,
they are good and current, because this news is very recent.
Regards,
Dirk
Guy Tann wrote:
> Dirk
>
> All of the readings we've done over the past 40+ years have given ValueLine
> credit for beating expectations, and that was why we decided to use their
> selections as opposed to our own, complete amateurs in picking stocks,
> trying to out-pick them.
>
> What's really embarrassing is that I omitted one stock from my ValueLine
> versus our own methodologies and this makes ValueLine look even better.
> Tonight's results will include the missing Corning.
>
> As of right now, the three portfolios are reporting the following numbers
> real-time.
>
> ValueLine $27.028
> SP39 $ 6,600
> Our trades $ 400
>
> Even with the DOW down over 200, we're still ahead on all three portfolios
> and on our S&P futures.
>
> There's just no comparison when looking at ValueLine's recommendations
> versus our own. I think we're seeing the approach we'll use for our next
> buy signal.
>
> I wonder how much of the DOW move is caused by the rebalancing of the S&P
> 500 and triple witching?
>
> Guy
>
> Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of Dirk de Vos
> Sent: Friday, June 16, 2000 8:33 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: 6-12 Buy Update - ValueLine
>
> Guy and others. I don't use ValueLine, but it is regarded very highly.
> Believe
> it or
> not one of the "kings" of the random markets theory (Malkiel, A Random Walk
> Down Wall Street), who does not believe in TA (thinks it's all
> luck/coincidence), says
> ValueLine is one of his only exceptions. Says ValueLine has consistently
> exceeded
> random performance in the market for a long time. Mind you, ValueLine is
> probably
> mainly fundamentals based, but it gives an edge, esp if you use technicals
> on it
>
> like Guy..
>
> Guy Tann wrote:
>
> > List,
> >
> > Well, here's my latest update on our 6/12/00 buy signal. It's alternating
> > between our SP39 selection process and the original ValueLine 1-1 picks.
> As
> > you can see, MY selections are still in last place and I'm hearing about
> it
> > from various members of the family (in good humor). Actually, my brother
> > knows that when trying something new, not everything works the way you
> would
> > want it to work, and like me, never throws stones. We both know that the
> > next foul-up will belong to the other. :)
> >
> > It still looks like ValueLine is an excellent place to start in terms of
> the
> > initial selection process. And, no we don't get any referral fee from
> > ValueLine. :) I'm sure they don't know of our existance. After 3 days,
> our
> > SP39 has taken a slight lead and my brilliant idea is still in last place.
> > My recommendation would be to try your ideas and don't be afraid. Worse
> > case is you'll lose a few bucks. Best case, you'll discover a new trading
> > technique for yourself. I would like to emphasize paper trading before
> > risking your own money. We didn't do that here, unfortunately, but since
> > our selection process in scaling down the ValueLine list has always been
> > "seat of pants" for the past six months or so, and we were sticking with
> > ValueLine's recommendations, we felt our risk would be small, as long as
> our
> > buy signal is correct. If, on the other hand, the signal is wrong, we'd
> > lose money anyway.
> >
> > PERCENT RETURN ON 6-12 BUY SIGNAL
> > NUMBER 6/13/00 6/14/00 6/15/00
> > OF STOCKS
> > ValueLine Picks 35 4.91% 1.95% 3.06%
> > SP39 Selection 11 3.64% 1.78% 3.48%
> > Actual Trades 15 3.61% 0.01% 1.30%
> >
> > Anyway, I'm just passing on our thought process in selecting our stock
> > portfolio for our buy signals. We're working on developing something for
> > our sales as well.
> >
> > Guy
> >
> > Paranoia...you only have to be right once to make it all worthwhile!
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