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This reminds me of the Hurst technique developed in his 1971 book where,
rather than projecting the moving average, he projected future price.
The projection was based on the first turn of a lagged MA coupled with
doubling the measurement of price/MA at the turning point.
Furthermore, if you were collecting time cycles as he suggested, you could
experience a cascade of MA projections based on the achievement of the first
objective.
Your overriding trend of larger cycles could help you estimate whether
objectives might be reached in an early or later part of the cycle.
Pardo had programmed all this in DOS back in the 1980's but I have never
seen any talk about this famous Hurst System in the windows conversations.
Paul Rabrich, also of Chicago, wrote fascinating DOS systems based on
combining various numerical studies and using no graphics at all. Likewise I
have never heard of any windows software being offered by him.
I do note that the Hurst book is back in print...at a high price, as it
should; however I have never seen anything published for sale by Paul
Rabrich.
Hurst's breakthrough was the half-span MA. (half the time of the dominant
time cycle) His next discovery was to lag the MA and make a price projection
at its turning point.
Early chart services of the Hurst method did incorporate a MA
projection....which was a human estimate based on underlying, and longer
cycles. It was plotted as a midpoint line in a channel, if I recall
correctly. I do not recollect the dimensions of the channel, or exactly how
it was conceived; but on the chart it was just an estimate of the computer
determined channel width for the past data.
Very interesting work in cycles, Fourier analysis, half-span MAs and price
projection techniques, published in 1971.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Martin" <clarke2@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 14, 2000 12:34 PM
Subject: Crystal Ball Gazing
> Just a thought,
>
> Can you make an exploration which looks into the future by using
> ref(c,+1) in the expression?
> or is there another way to project, say a moving average into the future
> based on its recent performance, that is within metastock, not taking it
> out into excel. Just trying to stay ahead of the crowd.
>
>
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