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Are you refering to "Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach to Technical
Analysis " by J. M. Hurst or another Hurst?
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Robb" <mlrobb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 14, 2000 3:51 PM
Subject: Project moving average
> This reminds me of the Hurst technique developed in his 1971 book where,
> rather than projecting the moving average, he projected future price.
>
> The projection was based on the first turn of a lagged MA coupled with
> doubling the measurement of price/MA at the turning point.
>
> Furthermore, if you were collecting time cycles as he suggested, you could
> experience a cascade of MA projections based on the achievement of the
first
> objective.
>
> Your overriding trend of larger cycles could help you estimate whether
> objectives might be reached in an early or later part of the cycle.
>
> Pardo had programmed all this in DOS back in the 1980's but I have never
> seen any talk about this famous Hurst System in the windows conversations.
>
> Paul Rabrich, also of Chicago, wrote fascinating DOS systems based on
> combining various numerical studies and using no graphics at all. Likewise
I
> have never heard of any windows software being offered by him.
>
> I do note that the Hurst book is back in print...at a high price, as it
> should; however I have never seen anything published for sale by Paul
> Rabrich.
>
> Hurst's breakthrough was the half-span MA. (half the time of the dominant
> time cycle) His next discovery was to lag the MA and make a price
projection
> at its turning point.
>
> Early chart services of the Hurst method did incorporate a MA
> projection....which was a human estimate based on underlying, and longer
> cycles. It was plotted as a midpoint line in a channel, if I recall
> correctly. I do not recollect the dimensions of the channel, or exactly
how
> it was conceived; but on the chart it was just an estimate of the computer
> determined channel width for the past data.
>
> Very interesting work in cycles, Fourier analysis, half-span MAs and price
> projection techniques, published in 1971.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Martin" <clarke2@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, July 14, 2000 12:34 PM
> Subject: Crystal Ball Gazing
>
>
> > Just a thought,
> >
> > Can you make an exploration which looks into the future by using
> > ref(c,+1) in the expression?
> > or is there another way to project, say a moving average into the future
> > based on its recent performance, that is within metastock, not taking it
> > out into excel. Just trying to stay ahead of the crowd.
> >
> >
>
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