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This is from another bulletin board:
Seasonal Patterns Suggest a Rally in Soybeans
Today I’d like to share some of the highlights of a very interesting article
about soybeans. The article was written for Agriculture Online by a
farmer/analyst named Roy Smith.
Mr. Smith says that soybean futures could rally substantially during the
next month. In fact, he maintains that the seasonal price pattern for the
next few weeks is the most reliable pattern of the year.
According to Mr. Smith, soybean prices tend to find a bottom around August
18 and rally until about September 12. The rally is usually related to the
possibility that an early frost could damage the crops.
Mr. Smith says that in 17 of the past 21 years soybean prices have gone up
between August 18 and September 12, with an average price increase of 18
cents per bushel.
The biggest increase occurred in 1983 when prices rallied $1.00.
The biggest loss occurred in 1993 when prices fell 35 cents.
In the years that prices went up, the average increase was 28 cents.
In the years prices fell, the average decline was 24 cents.
After September 12, the soybean seasonal turns bearish. In 17 of the last 21
years, prices have been lower on February 28 than they were on September 12.
Although the bean and corn price trends are usually in sync, Mr. Smith says
that the August-September period does not tend to be bullish for corn. "In
most years the best thing that happens is that prices don’t get any worse."
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