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Jeff, keep your posts coming we don't need to be all in full agrement over a
system.
Thanks & good trading.
G.G.
Jeff wrote:
> Michael:
>
> You do not say in your post what you tested the system on or what the return
> generated was. My purpose in making my posts has been to generate
> discussion of a system that I have been successful in using. It may be that
> some individuals are not psychologically suited to trade this system.
>
> The system is a trend follower that appears to get you in at the early in a
> trend. If the trend breaks down for any reason, the system seems to take
> you out with relatively little pain, and there is a relatively high
> percentage of losing trades (usually around 50%). Therefore, the system
> seems to perform best on issues that are prone to make prolonged moves. The
> trick is to find those issues. I do admit that the system is not perfect;
> for instance, it is my belief that the exit could be improved on winners to
> preserve more profit. However, I've been unable to develop an alternative
> exit that improves the system return.
>
> I've posted the results of this system that have been generated over the
> past two months and believe they speak for themselves. The results
> should've, at least, been interesting enough to generate a little more
> discussion than they have up until now. I've been trading this system
> myself for about a year and have had good results. Even in the
> April-September period when everything seemed to stall and move sideways, I
> was, at least able to hold my own and maintain my capital until the October
> break-aways started to occur. For awhile, until I got bored with it, I
> phantom traded this system in the Yahoo Investment Challenge. I typically
> made about 20% a month using the system in that venue.
>
> At any rate, I take it from your comments that you are not thrilled with the
> system. That's OK. If the general feeling of the group is such that they
> would rather not see my posts, that's OK too. Just let me know and I'll
> quietly crawl back into my hole. But in case you, or anyone else is
> interested, the following is the system as I use it.
>
> Buy
>
> n :=opt2{Time periods};
>
> BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,n) - LLV(HIGH,n))/2 + LLV(HIGH,n);
>
> Cross(CLOSE,bullfear) AND
> DX(10) > opt1
>
> Sell
>
> n :=opt2{Time periods};
>
> BearFear := (HHV(LOW,n) - LLV(LOW,n))/2 + LLV(LOW,n);
>
> CLOSE < bearfear
>
> Optimize the time periods from 10 to 50 in increments of 1 while testing the
> DX from 5 to 30 in increments of 5 (you can do it in increments of 1 but it
> takes longer). Once the Optimal time period is determined in this manner,
> then retest with the determined optimal time period and the DX in increments
> of 1. Note that this system is intended to be a stop and reverse system and
> you can use it to go short as well if you'd like to.
>
> Well, that's about all I have to say on the subject.
>
> Good trading
> Jeff
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: michael arnoldi <marnoldi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: A METASTOCK GROUP <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, November 27, 1999 12:50 PM
> Subject: bull/bear fear- tested
>
> >i hope that the formula is wrong, this is what i used, and did a test
> >using opt1 instead of n:
> >BUY
> >BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,opt1) - LLV(HIGH,opt1))/2 + LLV(HIGH,opt1);
> >Cross(CLOSE,BullFear)
> >
> >SELL
> >BearFear := (HHV(LOW,opt1) - LLV(LOW,opt1))/2 + LLV(LOW,opt1);
> >Cross(BearFear,CLOSE)
> >
> >opt1=10 to 30 with 1 point increments
> >
> >result 7 trades with 11 losses.
> >
> >not a system i would use.
> >comments are welcome.
> >
> >mike arnoldi
--
--End--
A bus station is where a bus stops. A train station is where a train
stops. On my desk, I have a work station...GO FIGURE! ;-)
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