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<DIV><FONT size=2> All,
<P><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"></SPAN> This weeks
pick is Ameritrade (AMTD), which is an Internet discount stockbroker.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>AMTD <SPAN
style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">lets you buy and sell by phone, fax, and
Internet. The company has four subsidiaries: Ameritrade and Accutrade provide
online, phone, and fax trading; Advanced Clearing provides clearing services;
and AmeriVest offers discount brokerage to financial institutions. It is
increasing its visibility via alliances with online services (America Online and
Yahoo!) and through agreements to provide brokerage services to credit
unions.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It is also launching
OnMoney Financial Services, an online personal finance program. Chairman Joe
Ricketts and his family own about 75% of Ameritrade.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The firm is forming an online investment
bank with Charles Schwab and TD Waterhouse.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>For more information check out its web
site: </SPAN><A
href="http://www.ameritradeholding.com/";>www.ameritradeholding.com</A><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>AMTD at 24 ½ just
bounced off the bottom of its current Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC).<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The top of the STUTC is at 33 ¾ and the
bottom is at 23 ¼.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Looking back,
AMTD hit an all time high of 62.79 on 04/14/99 then started an Intermediate Term
Down Trend Channel (ITDTC) that made a double bottom at 16 in September 1999 and
again in early November 1999.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>From
the second bottom, it started the current STUTC and broke out of the ITDTC on
11/16/99.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>After the breakout, it
pulled back to the bottom of the STUTC and now appears to be trying to bounce of
the bottom of the STUTC.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>That
should provide a fairly low risk entry point with the stop just under the bottom
of the STUTC.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The Tema Binary Wave
is positive and growing.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The
StochRSI 21 has fallen with the pullback to the bottom of the channel, but is
also still positive.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The
fundamentals are good for an Internet stock.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>While the price/sales is high at 16.03,
the debt/equity is great at 0.17, the revenue growth is over a 60% annual rate,
and the earnings are estimated to turn positive and grow at a 37% annual rate
over the next five years.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I’m going
to open a position Monday with the target just under the April high at 24 and
the stop just under the bottom of the STUTC at 22 ¾.</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt"> See a chart
at <A
href="http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/";>http://www.geocities.com/jimginva/</A></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN
style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt">JimG</SPAN></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Nov 27 16:49:43 1999
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From: "Jeff" <jcob3@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: bull/bear fear- tested
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 1999 17:50:07 -0500
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Status:
Michael:
You do not say in your post what you tested the system on or what the return
generated was. My purpose in making my posts has been to generate
discussion of a system that I have been successful in using. It may be that
some individuals are not psychologically suited to trade this system.
The system is a trend follower that appears to get you in at the early in a
trend. If the trend breaks down for any reason, the system seems to take
you out with relatively little pain, and there is a relatively high
percentage of losing trades (usually around 50%). Therefore, the system
seems to perform best on issues that are prone to make prolonged moves. The
trick is to find those issues. I do admit that the system is not perfect;
for instance, it is my belief that the exit could be improved on winners to
preserve more profit. However, I've been unable to develop an alternative
exit that improves the system return.
I've posted the results of this system that have been generated over the
past two months and believe they speak for themselves. The results
should've, at least, been interesting enough to generate a little more
discussion than they have up until now. I've been trading this system
myself for about a year and have had good results. Even in the
April-September period when everything seemed to stall and move sideways, I
was, at least able to hold my own and maintain my capital until the October
break-aways started to occur. For awhile, until I got bored with it, I
phantom traded this system in the Yahoo Investment Challenge. I typically
made about 20% a month using the system in that venue.
At any rate, I take it from your comments that you are not thrilled with the
system. That's OK. If the general feeling of the group is such that they
would rather not see my posts, that's OK too. Just let me know and I'll
quietly crawl back into my hole. But in case you, or anyone else is
interested, the following is the system as I use it.
Buy
n :=opt2{Time periods};
BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,n) - LLV(HIGH,n))/2 + LLV(HIGH,n);
Cross(CLOSE,bullfear) AND
DX(10) > opt1
Sell
n :=opt2{Time periods};
BearFear := (HHV(LOW,n) - LLV(LOW,n))/2 + LLV(LOW,n);
CLOSE < bearfear
Optimize the time periods from 10 to 50 in increments of 1 while testing the
DX from 5 to 30 in increments of 5 (you can do it in increments of 1 but it
takes longer). Once the Optimal time period is determined in this manner,
then retest with the determined optimal time period and the DX in increments
of 1. Note that this system is intended to be a stop and reverse system and
you can use it to go short as well if you'd like to.
Well, that's about all I have to say on the subject.
Good trading
Jeff
-----Original Message-----
From: michael arnoldi <marnoldi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: A METASTOCK GROUP <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, November 27, 1999 12:50 PM
Subject: bull/bear fear- tested
>i hope that the formula is wrong, this is what i used, and did a test
>using opt1 instead of n:
>BUY
>BullFear := (HHV(HIGH,opt1) - LLV(HIGH,opt1))/2 + LLV(HIGH,opt1);
>Cross(CLOSE,BullFear)
>
>SELL
>BearFear := (HHV(LOW,opt1) - LLV(LOW,opt1))/2 + LLV(LOW,opt1);
>Cross(BearFear,CLOSE)
>
>opt1=10 to 30 with 1 point increments
>
>result 7 trades with 11 losses.
>
>not a system i would use.
>comments are welcome.
>
>mike arnoldi
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