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Al and Steve
Good points being made.
I have not jumped in since we are still long our S&P futures and I had no
earth shaking recommendations to add (and are losing money on these
positions). Again, we trade our system the same way you guys trade yours.
I was surprised to find that Steve uses the same contrarian methodology we
use, in that, in order for us to go long, we need a down day the day of the
signal or in some cases the day before or after, and vice versa.
We do have one situation where that down day is not required, but I like to
think of that signal as a point discontinuity. :)
There are a lot of theoretical systems that make a lot of money (on paper).
Unfortunately, it's hard to convert them to a 'real' trading system. Even
with a 'good' system, some of us still have a problem second guessing
ourselves. I know my brother and I are guilty of this.
I do know that the money managements discussions helped us immensely. We've
been trading for decades and for some reason never got into that aspect of
trading. Following discussions in this forum, we bought some texts and
discovered that our trading methodology guaranteed us a 100% risk of ruin
(and we've proven that, moreover than not). Now, we're trading using some
money management rules we've developed that keeps our 'risk of ruin' down
around 4% or under.
Anyway, with Steve, Al, JimG all adding their perspective, we're able to
take a second look at our own direction before pulling the trigger. I know
that my brother, for instance, started unloaded his portfolio yesterday (not
going short, but just taking profits) because our systems have given us an
ITSS (Intermediate Term Sell Signal). We're now waiting for a confirming
short term sell signal to go short.
Anyway, that's my $.02. I like seeing what other traders are really doing.
It forces me to review my trades when we're getting ready to place an order
and JimG and Steve are going in the other direction.
Regards,
Guy
Fax (630) 604-1589
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Al Taglavore
Sent: Thursday, October 07, 1999 11:37 AM
To: MetaStock List Group
Subject: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Gwenn,
If I may, allow me to put my 2 cents worth into this discussion. Steve is
a trader. He has a methodology. He acts, then shares (talks) what he has
done. Win or lose, he tells it.
You write: ".... what you do displaying your sugar trades is no different
from debating
about the direction of rates, currencies, and asset valuations or is
it?...." Well, Gwenn, that was the message in his original post: Taking
action as opposed to having rhetorical discussions. A trader steps up to
the plate and swings the bat. A theorist sits at the table and discusses
the why, what, and ifs. Lots of difference. When you see the volume bar
on your charts, that represents people that took action....made a trade.
Think of it as playing in the game or watching the game on TV.
I made a post yesterday regarding the opening of a position in BKS at
26.06. It got killed this morning on an analyst downgrade. I made an exit
at 24.08. I lost money, but I did follow my plan and can come back and
trade again. I read my chart pattern, the market told me I was wrong, and
I exited the position and took the loss. When you analyze system results
and see a 75% win factor and think it is so great, well, this is just part
of the 25% that failed.
Another point Steve was making is that he has no clue about the
commodity...he is simply reading his charts and acting on a methodology
that has a mathematical probability of success. Whenever one places a
trade one has a 50% chance of success: it will either go up or down.
Certain chart patterns will have a high probability of predictability. But
the fact still remains that when the trade is placed, only two things are
likely to happen: either up or down.
I feel as though I have used my 2 cents worth of time. No anger or ire
here, just seconding Steve's attempt to have trades discussed and shared so
that we can all profit from what someone else observers. To make money:
that is the reason one trades, is it not?
Al Taglavore
> Hi Steve, why such anger? Different people different interests! In
> addition
> > > >
> > I have traded sugar myself and even made money in it, but really I have
no
> > clues about it, why it should do this or that, I just looked at
patterns I
> used
> > in stocks and hence stay quiet on this. But I don't tell the others to
> stop
> > talking about sugar. On the contrary, if you want to share your
knowledge
> about
> > what makes this market tick I am all ears... Maybe I can learn
something
> there.
> >
> > Gwenn
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