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edu (¥€$) : How to detect "'fruitfull'" market Lows(below) or Highs(mirror image)
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying and
note the new address change. Also for my Homepage
http://home.planet.nl/~anthmaas
----- Original Message -----
From: Jeff Walker
To: <subscribers>
Sent: donderdag 19 augustus 1999 7:00
Subject: Walker Market Letter 8/18/99
>
>
>
> ...............................................
>
> W A L K E R M A R K E T L E T T E R
>
> 8 / 18 / 99
>
> <http://www.lowrisk.com>
> <http://www.investormap.com>
>
> ...............................................
>
>
> // -- FROM THE EDITOR -- //
>
> It was great meeting all of you who stopped by our booth at the
> Seattle Money Show. We hope to do more of these in the future. We
> will let you know when plans are firmed up.
>
> We now have over 22,000 subscribers to the Walker Market Letter. The
> primary way that we grow is word of mouth. If you find this
> newsletter to be of value, please forward it to your friends and
> associates. Subscription instructions are at the bottom of this
> newsletter. Or tell them to go to http://lowrisk.com/wml.htm and
> subscribe.
>
> In our last issue, I mentioned a great book for everyone interested
> in marketing a web site. We got some very enthusiastic "thank you"
> notes for pointing this site out, but a few people had some trouble
> with the link we provided, so here is an alternate one:
>
> http://invest.sitesell.com . This is a tremendous resource, if you
> have any interest in internet marketing you will be glad if you
> check it out.
>
> Finally, look for a special announcement later this week from the
> Walker Market Letter...
>
>
>
> // -- MODEL UPDATE -- //
>
> Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 8 (on a scale
> of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)
>
> ***
> Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% in stocks since 4/21/94
> Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 8/16/99
> Timing Strategy - 0% stocks, 100% money markets as of 8/5/99
> SuperBear Strategy - 100% in money markets as of 12/14/98
>
>
>
>
> --------- A message from our sponsor ----------
>
> Don't miss our next Flash Update! Upgrade your subscription to the
> Walker MarketEdge, and get all the issues you have been missing. Act
> now, the price is going up soon! Order today via our secure web site
> at: http://lowrisk.com/marketedge-sub.htm
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> // -- COMMENTARY -- //
>
> The market is at a very interesting juncture here. After declining
> steadily for more than three weeks, the market bottomed last Tuesday
> (8/10/99). At the bottom, the SP500 was down 10.7%, the Nasdaq was
> down 15.0%. The Dow was the strongest of the indexes, down only
> 6.2%. At that bottom on August 10th, the market was extremely oversold.
> Some of our internals indicators were approaching the oversold levels
> of last October. The market was due a strong bounce (in fact, on
> 8/8/99 we published an update to our Walker MarketEdge subscribers
> that the market was due a bounce "in the next few days"), and that
> is what we have seen.
>
> The rally was very powerful, with the SP500 recouping half its
> losses. The Nasdaq rallied almost 10% off its lows, and the Dow
> moved within 0.8% of its all time closing high. Now the question is
> whether this is a bear market rally that will quickly fade into
> another round of selling, or did we see an intermediate term bottom
> on August 10th? Let's take a look...
>
> First off, let's go back to those internals indicators at the bottom
> on August 10th. We follow a large number of internals indicators
> that are derived from the advancing and declining issues, up and
> down volume, and new highs and new lows. These indicators are like a
> rubber band, when they get stretched into a very oversold condition,
> they are ready to snap back. With last week's rally, they snapped
> back very sharply. However, there was something very significant in
> those extremely oversold levels last week...they confirmed the
> market's lows. In other words, when the market made its lows on
> 8/10/99, all of our internal indicators were making lows right along
> with the various stock indexes. *Usually* before we see a
> significant market bottom, we see a bullish divergence in these
> indicators. To put in such a bottom, the market will go down to make
> lower lows (or retest prior lows) in the price indexes while the
> internals indicators make a higher low. Now this isn't the case
> *every* time, but it is the pattern we usually see...and we didn't
> see it last week. The lack of any bullish divergences implies
> another down leg ahead in this correction.
>
> Now the market rally has been powerful, but it has been on very
> light volume. The trading in the last week has been anemic. It is
> the nature of "bear market rallies" to be very convincing...they are
> sharp and just powerful enough to get everyone wondering whether
> this is the real deal. It still remains to be seen if we are in a
> bear market, but the August 10th bottom was not terribly convincing.
> If this rally does continue and at least some of the indexes go up
> to new highs (the Dow is the number one candidate right now) it will
> most likely be a sickly looking new high. It will almost surely be
> greeted with across the board bearish divergences on our internals
> indicators. This could spell serious problems in the coming months.
>
> On the other hand, if the market turns down from here (and it may
> have already started the next leg down on Wednesday) then we might
> see a good bottom with bullish internals divergences. If the market
> does head down, we will be watching the prior lows (especially 1267
> to 1277 on the SP500) for support. A break of those lows could lead
> to an acceleration to the downside.
>
> Like we said up at the top, a very interesting juncture for the
> market. It almost looks like the market needs to go down some to put
> in a healthy bottom. If it just runs higher from here, watch out
> down the road.
>
> So the big question is...what does the model have to say about this
> market? The Signal Strength has been bouncing all over the place,
> but mostly going lower. It is currently at 8 (on a scale of 1 to 20,
> with 20 being most bullish). That reading of 8 has our strategies
> mostly on the sideline, which pretty much matches up with our read
> on the market. Several components are sitting on the fence, so it
> looks like the model could move in either direction pretty quickly.
>
> With the speed the market is moving these days, you might want to
> consider a subscription to the Walker MarketEdge...we have put out
> several Flash Updates and Special Updates since our last issue of
> the Walker Market Letter. And it doesn't look like things will be
> slowing down in the market soon. Subscribe today so you don't miss
> any more updates http://lowrisk.com/marketedge-sub.htm .
>
>
>
>
> --------- A message from our sponsor ----------
>
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> best internet marketing resource at a tenth the price of the
> competition. This is what one internet market expert said:
>
> "No matter how big or small your company, no matter how
> sophisticated (or not) you may be, MYSS is worth 100 times
> more than its absurdly low price!"
>
> Read this and 25 other wildly enthusiastic testimonials from
> reviewers and readers at: http://invest.sitesell.com/
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> // -- WEB SITE UPDATE -- //
>
> With all this volatility, we have updated our "99 Crash" page once
> again. Check it out at: http://www.lowrisk.com/99crash.htm
>
> We have lots of free offers for investors to some great
> publications. They are all at: http://lowrisk.com/freeoffers.htm
>
>
> NEXT ISSUE: the week of August 30th
>
> Good luck,
> Jeff
>
>
> ===========================
> To SUBSCRIBE: email to < wml-request@xxxxxxxxxxxx > with
> "subscribe" in message body. Or stop by
> http://www.lowrisk.com/wml-sub.htm
> ----
> To UNSUBSCRIBE: email to < wml-request@xxxxxxxxxxxx > with
> "unsubscribe" in the message body.
> ===========================
> Copyright (c) 1999 by Jeff Walker, Lakewood, CO
>
> Disclaimer:
> The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
> performance does not guarantee future performance. The
> foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
> purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
> sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
> research and data believed reliable, but there is no
> guarantee that future results will be profitable.
>
> ***************************
> InvestorMap.com- THE investing directory http://investormap.com
> Lowrisk.com- making sense of the market http://www.lowrisk.com
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