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 Mark,
   Great post! Actually looking at Wheat itself  (see attached chart) I =
would say it is premature (on my part)
 to claim a  great bull has started (although my weekly trend has turned =
up) for the following reasons:
1. Wheat has been in a long term channel since Sep-Oct of last year.
2. I will wait for a confirmation of breaking the 305-308 resistance =
range.
3. The price has hit resistance of the center tine of the fork, if the =
price falls back down, I will look for
    support around the lower tine before going back up. If the lower =
support fails then the up trend is invalid.

 For these reasons if I was analyzing wheat itself....I wouldn't be that =
excited, but what added to my
wheat (and other markets) enthusiasm is the fact that the CRB index has =
broken above its resistance
and could be breaking away from a "Double Bottom". Of course If the CRB =
falls back to or below this
so called double bottom, I will wonder how I could have ever thought in =
such a way <grin>. I do like the
way you said:
                  "to let the market tell me which way it wants"
This is a GREAT attitude and I can see you position yourself wisely in =
that regard......I hope to learn
more from you in this manner.

  Later,
           Adam



=20


----- Original Message -----=20
From: Valhalla Futures <scheier@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, August 05, 1999 10:44 AM
Subject: Re: Wheat........


> Hey Adam, thought I'd throw in a few cents worth on this one too, =
FWIW.
> Understand your thinking on the grains, pretty good argument that an =
impulse
> move might have gotten started here, too bad all the weather scare =
might be
> clouding our judgement.   One thing of interest that has me shorting =
wheat at
> yesterday's close and today just after open is the current chart =
pattern.
> DiNapoli calls in Railroad Tracks in the Country.   If you saw how it =
topped
> Silver last May, Sugar last June, and Rice two days ago, you'll =
recognize the
> power of the directional change is suggests.   To counter this =
thinking, and get
> right again with the trend if in fact it is the beginning of a =
runnaway bull,
> I've buy-stopped the Dec Corn high signal-reversal of two days ago.  =
And I've
> got a tight stop on my wheat short on the assumption that it either is =
this
> DiNapoli pattern or it is not, and doesn't need a big stop thereby.   =
In this
> fashion I'm positioned, I hope, to let the market tell me which way it =
wants,
> and not my forecasts, nor even the weatherman's forecasts.   I don't =
know about
> his track record, but strickly speaking for myself, my track record is =
perfect:
> I've never actually been right.    ....but I do pretty good in the =
markets
> anyway. <g>   Good luck with your decisions.
>=20
> Mark S.
>=20
> Von Hef wrote:
>=20
> >  Steve and Claud,
> >
> >  I also appreciate the contributions you guys make to the list.
> > I guess I should learn to exercise more patience like you Claud,
> > but inevitably I find myself in and out with the momentum indicators
> > in the direction of the trend. Perhaps if I can learn to trust a =
system
> > such as Steve's, I can feel a little more confident going against =
the
> > trend. I have also been watching wheat for weeks and at this stage
> > of speculation, believe this could be a big move to the upside.
> >  Later,
> >              Adam
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Claud Baruch <ClaudB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 04, 1999 5:29 PM
> > Subject: Re: Wheat........
> >
> > > Steve,
> > >
> > > I waited many months for what's happening now in wheat. I'm not an =
in and
> > out
> > > trader
> > > but exercise patience to initiate positions. (long or short). =
Happy to see
> > the
> > > money
> > > you made with the calls. I have quite a few myself and while I =
too,
> > thought
> > > Tuesday's
> > > action was a near term top, I'll sit it out through the =
correction. I
> > think
> > > there's much
> > > more coming.
> > >
> > > I've had the wheat chart posted at my little website for quite a =
while now
> > and
> > > things
> > > seem to be falling (rising) into place.
> > >
> > > Thanks for your comments.
> > >
> > > Claud
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish wrote:
> > >
> > > > Adam and Claud,
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/
> > >
> > >
>=20

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<HTML><HEAD>
<META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" =
http-equiv=3DContent-Type>
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2614.3401" name=3DGENERATOR>
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<BODY>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;Mark,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp; Great post! Actually looking at Wheat=20
itself&nbsp; (see attached chart) I would say it is premature (on my=20
part)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;to claim a</FONT><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp; great =
bull has=20
started (although my weekly trend has turned up) for the following=20
reasons:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>1. Wheat has been in a long term channel since =
Sep-Oct of last=20
year.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>2. I will wait for a confirmation of breaking the =
305-308=20
resistance range.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>3. The price has hit resistance of the center tine =
of the=20
fork, if the price falls back down, I will look for</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; support around the lower tine =
before going=20
back up. If the lower support fails then the up trend is =
invalid.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;For these reasons if I was analyzing wheat =
itself....I=20
wouldn't be that excited, but what added to my</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>wheat (and other markets) enthusiasm is the fact =
that the CRB=20
index has broken above its resistance</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>and could be breaking away from a "Double Bottom". =
Of course=20
If the CRB falls back to or below this</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>so called double bottom, I will wonder how I could =
have ever=20
thought in such a way &lt;grin&gt;. I do like the</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>way you said:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbs=
p;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
"to let the market tell me which way it wants"</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>This is a GREAT attitude and I can see you position =
yourself=20
wisely in that regard......I hope to learn</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>more from you in this manner.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp; Later,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT =
size=3D2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
Adam</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><IMG align=3Dbaseline alt=3D"" border=3D0 hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:005201bedfb0$d3ccb900$d4d1fed0@xxxxxxxxxx";></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>From: Valhalla Futures &lt;<A=20
href=3D"mailto:scheier@xxxxxxxxx";>scheier@xxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>To: &lt;<A=20
href=3D"mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;</=
FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Sent: Thursday, August 05, 1999 10:44 =
AM</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Subject: Re: Wheat........</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT size=3D2>&gt; Hey Adam, thought I'd throw in a few =
cents=20
worth on this one too, FWIW.<BR>&gt; Understand your thinking on the =
grains,=20
pretty good argument that an impulse<BR>&gt; move might have gotten =
started=20
here, too bad all the weather scare might be<BR>&gt; clouding our=20
judgement.&nbsp;&nbsp; One thing of interest that has me shorting wheat=20
at<BR>&gt; yesterday's close and today just after open is the current =
chart=20
pattern.<BR>&gt; DiNapoli calls in Railroad Tracks in the =
Country.&nbsp;&nbsp;=20
If you saw how it topped<BR>&gt; Silver last May, Sugar last June, and =
Rice two=20
days ago, you'll recognize the<BR>&gt; power of the directional change =
is=20
suggests.&nbsp;&nbsp; To counter this thinking, and get<BR>&gt; right =
again with=20
the trend if in fact it is the beginning of a runnaway bull,<BR>&gt; =
I've=20
buy-stopped the Dec Corn high signal-reversal of two days ago.&nbsp; And =

I've<BR>&gt; got a tight stop on my wheat short on the assumption that =
it either=20
is this<BR>&gt; DiNapoli pattern or it is not, and doesn't need a big =
stop=20
thereby.&nbsp;&nbsp; In this<BR>&gt; fashion I'm positioned, I hope, to =
let the=20
market tell me which way it wants,<BR>&gt; and not my forecasts, nor =
even the=20
weatherman's forecasts.&nbsp;&nbsp; I don't know about<BR>&gt; his track =
record,=20
but strickly speaking for myself, my track record is perfect:<BR>&gt; =
I've never=20
actually been right.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ....but I do pretty good in the=20
markets<BR>&gt; anyway. &lt;g&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp; Good luck with your=20
decisions.<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; Mark S.<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; Von Hef =
wrote:<BR>&gt;=20
<BR>&gt; &gt;&nbsp; Steve and Claud,<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;&nbsp; I =
also=20
appreciate the contributions you guys make to the list.<BR>&gt; &gt; I =
guess I=20
should learn to exercise more patience like you Claud,<BR>&gt; &gt; but=20
inevitably I find myself in and out with the momentum indicators<BR>&gt; =
&gt; in=20
the direction of the trend. Perhaps if I can learn to trust a =
system<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; such as Steve's, I can feel a little more confident going against=20
the<BR>&gt; &gt; trend. I have also been watching wheat for weeks and at =
this=20
stage<BR>&gt; &gt; of speculation, believe this could be a big move to =
the=20
upside.<BR>&gt; &gt;&nbsp; Later,<BR>&gt;=20
&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nb=
sp;&nbsp;=20
Adam<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; ----- Original Message -----<BR>&gt; &gt; =
From:=20
Claud Baruch &lt;<A=20
href=3D"mailto:ClaudB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>ClaudB@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;<BR>&gt;=
 &gt; To:=20
&lt;<A=20
href=3D"mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>&gt;<B=
R>&gt;=20
&gt; Sent: Wednesday, August 04, 1999 5:29 PM<BR>&gt; &gt; Subject: Re:=20
Wheat........<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; Steve,<BR>&gt; &gt; =
&gt;<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt; I waited many months for what's happening now in wheat. I'm =
not an in=20
and<BR>&gt; &gt; out<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; trader<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; but =
exercise=20
patience to initiate positions. (long or short). Happy to see<BR>&gt; =
&gt;=20
the<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; money<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; you made with the calls. I =
have=20
quite a few myself and while I too,<BR>&gt; &gt; thought<BR>&gt; &gt; =
&gt;=20
Tuesday's<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; action was a near term top, I'll sit it out =
through=20
the correction. I<BR>&gt; &gt; think<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; there's =
much<BR>&gt; &gt;=20
&gt; more coming.<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; I've had the wheat =
chart=20
posted at my little website for quite a while now<BR>&gt; &gt; =
and<BR>&gt; &gt;=20
&gt; things<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; seem to be falling (rising) into =
place.<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; Thanks for your comments.<BR>&gt; &gt; =
&gt;<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt; Claud<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; Steve Karnish =
wrote:<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Adam and Claud,<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; =
&gt;<BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; --<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt; =
<A=20
href=3D"http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/";>http://pw1.netcom.com/~claudb/</A=
><BR>&gt;=20
&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; </FONT></BODY></HTML>

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