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Part 1/2 - Text
(for accompanying Gif see part 2/2)
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Retracements for DowIndu :
- The ATH 11131 (May,1999 and in general) is the UpTrend's Turning Point (Pivot)
- To the downside the (minus) -1/3 Fractal Retracement (-33.3% support) is 10454
with the 1/8 Fractal Retracement (-12.5% support) 10877 now for ST-Resistance
- To the upside the (plus) +1/3 Fractal Retracement (+33.3% resistance) is 11808
with the 1/8 Fractal Retracement (+12.5% resistance) 11385 now for ST-Support
Trading Range targets:
The DowIndu broke the Pivot (old ATH 11130.70) with a new ATH @ 11139.60 last friday.
Therefore, the new 1/3 now-to-the-upside Fractal Retracement (+33.3%) can be
calculated (11807.66) and applied (in general and valid when this breakout also proves
to be substantial).
At the same time, this is also the upper part of a new very short term Horizontal Trend Channel
(=Trading Range), eg for the previous small Trading Range's bottom halve (11131 - 10454) is
now collapsed of the UpTrend's previous horizontal Resistance (11131), to form the new upper
halve(11808 - 11131).
Patterns targets:
The making of a Diamond's Ascending Triangle-pattern (=bullish in an uptrend, eg the pattern
formed/ing in the lower halve of the Trading Range), with a re-test of the Triangle-pattern's rising
support line (currently @ 10550), is also <for Price's future next moves> to be considered optionaly,
as well as the now very well on Chart showing <and with a breakout thus at the moment valid>
Flag-pattern (=bullish in an uptrend) and the Price has broken out of this Flag-pattern (Flag-2).
Also showing on Chart is a H+Ss pattern in an uptrend(=bullish), formed last May-June1999, for
which at the moment an almost certain right-shoulder has formed(or will be formed by a correction
move down to Triangle's rising support line @ +/- 10800). This pattern is also a Tripple Bottom with
the above mentioned Pivot for its up-side-down Valley's breakpoint.
This added to the H+Ss pattern, formed last July-December1998 (and in an uptrend(=bullish)), which
pattern was also mentioned in my previous mailings, will have the following targets to be in sight :
Targets to the Upside:
------------------------------
Ascending Triangle : same 11808-target applies as for the (above mentioned <upper>) Trading Range
H+Ss (ST) pattern : eg the Tripple Bottom, with for target the same 11808 that applies for the Trading Range
and Ascending Triangle
1/3 Retracement : 11808
H+Ss (LT) pattern : eg included the Double Bottom pattern formed last July-December (1998) and
for target 11896, collapsed of neckline
1/2 Retracement : 12147
3/4 Retracement : 12655
Flag Breakout : Diamond's Flag-2 breakout target 12763
Targets to the Downside:
----------------------------------
Rising Median Line : Divisor Line in both tiled Rising UpTrend Channels (now @ around 10730)
Flag Breakout : Diamond's Flag-2 breakout 10731, now support
Ascending Triangle : (also Tripple Bottom's) in time Rising Support Line (now currently @ around 10550)
1/3 Retracement : 10454 = also the 3x (!!!) tripple tested valid support (Tripple Bottom)
Downside Pivot : 10409
1/2 Retracement : 10115
Channel Support : Lower Rising UpTrend Channel's Support Line (now @ around 9950)
Neckline Support : Breakout Support (now @ around 9750)
3/4 Retracement : 9607
//////////////////////////////////////////
My system signals:
>From the Dow Theory's "angle" point of view:
The system here signalled "Positive" as of last Friday (07/02/1999) for the DowTrans.
The AEX returned to "Negative" (07/02/1999), but I think this signal lags (a bit) the AEX's
strong move Up(+9points), made last Thursday, to 570.46 (was 561.19).
The "system signals" Table per 07/02/1999 is:
Index - Old - Current
------- -------- -------------
10yr/yield ECB-Euro € Rate - (before 990507)Negative -unchanged, Negative
10yr/yield Japan Yen Rate - 990617 -Negative -unchanged, Negative
10yr/yield US $ Rate - 990616 -Negative -unchanged, Negative
AEX - 990603 -Positive -990702 -Negative
AEX-Volume - 990615 -Positive -990629 -Negative
DAX 35 - 990614 -Positive -unchanged, Positive
DJ EURO STOXX 50 - 990609 -Positive -unchanged, Positive
Dow Indu - 990625 -Negative -990628 -Positive
Dow Transp - 990521 -Negative -990702 -Positive
Dow Utils - (before 990507)Positive -990624 -Negative
HangSeng - 990609 -Positive -unchanged, Positive
Nikkei 225 - 990609 -Positive -unchanged, Positive
SP500 - 990616 -Positive -unchanged, Positive
//////////////////////////////////////////
For the archive search:
See also previous mails with for Subject lines:
"Re: Faster MS Win 6.5 Explorations Using Cache???"
(sent 19990701(printed below), 19990626, 19990624 and 19990620)
"Re: Warning: Dow at top of channel." (sent 19990415 + 19990417)
"Diamonds - Dow(19990613)" (sent 19990613)
"Re: re:gann" (sent 19990517)
"Re: re:gann (part-1)" (sent 19990521)
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
==================================================
----- Original Message -----
From: A.J. Maas
To: Metastock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: donderdag 1 juli 1999 1:03
Subject: Re: Faster MS Win 6.5 Explorations Using Cache???
> > The system here doesn't usualy jump from signal to signal (that) so soon, but the latest positive
> > signal for the Dow Indu has already been reversed to negative:
> > Dow Indu -990524 -Negative
> > 990617 -Positive
> > 990622 -Negative
> > (from this, either it is building up strength for a powerfull break(to the upside), or it was a weak
> > and to (soon) premature break to the upside (and for the moment)..........
>
> As of 990628 the signal changed to Positive again.
> Will this than be the longawaited signal (true when the ATH @ 11181 gets taken out)
> for the DowIndu's final trip (blow-off) to 11896 or should we see a re-test of the former
> Low @ 10,400 (eg the 10,000 for 'rounded' level) first, before any entering on new record
> teritory will be made possible (from the for the next (2) few months stablising and/or
> higher bonds/lower rates markets) ?
>
> See previous mails which also had for subjects:
> "Re: Warning: Dow at top of channel." (sent 19940415 + 17)
> "Diamonds - Dow(19990613)"
>
> Regards,
> Ton Maas
> ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
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