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<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> A good week for my portfolio even if
I did have a lot of portfolio changes! Now we need two or three more great
weeks to get back to where we were <G>. After closing my SCH, NEON,
and NETA positions and adding EWJ, EWM, and AOL I was left with 10%
cash; stock positions in AOL, CMED, CPU, DELL, EWJ, EWM, FLC, and MSFT;
and LEAP calls on ABT and DELL. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> It's really looking to me like
the low a week ago Friday is a short term market low and Guy's signal switch to
the buy side was a good one. The indices I watch all are all moving up
strongly although most of them are still in Horizontal Channels (HCs) and
haven't broken out to give buy signals yet. Maybe this week if we are
lucky <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I want to commit the
remaining cash to a new position this week which will put me 100% invested
for the first time in quite a while. Hope that's not a contrarian
indicator <G>. I was really tempted to go back into NEON.
Opening a position in AOL this last week looks like a good call, but closing
NEON to do it may have been a mistake. NEON's Short Term Up Trend Channel
(STUTC) held and it reversed to the upside nicely last Thursday. However,
looking at my portfolio, I don't have any positions in Financial Services which
is a group that looks like its trying to recover. I do have high tech
and Internet positions. Therefore, to keep my portfolio better balanced, I
decided to open a position in Providian Financial (PVN).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> PVN at 89 broke out of a Short Term
Down Trend Channel (STDTC) on good volume Friday. It hit a new all time
high of 138 on 4/22/99 and then started the STDTC it just broke when the entire
Financial Services Group corrected. It set a low of 71 3/4 on 6/4/99 with
a wide box on the Candle Volume chart. A wide box on a volume chart
usually signals a direction change and that was true in this case. It went
on up then corrected to a higher low of 77 Monday before jumping again to break
out of the STDTC. There isn't much data to use to construct a new STUTC,
but I did construct one using the MetaStock standard deviation channel function
from the 6/4/99 low to Friday's close. I set the deviation at 1 so I could
use the bottom of the STUTC for my stop. The Tema Binary wave and Qstick
are both negative but rising. The Binary Wave looks like it set a negative
peak a week ago and the Qstick looks like it set a negative peak
Wednesday. Negative peaks are usually good entry points for long
positions. The fundamentals are good except that the price/sales are on
the high side at 13.5. Debt/Equity is 1.02 which is about half the
Financial Services Industry average, and growth is excellent with
revenue growth at 98% annually and earnings growth at 100% annually. I'm
going to set a buy stop at 90 1/8 which is just above Friday's high. If I
get the position, I'll set my target just below the old high at 135.
I'll set my initial stop at 80 3/4 which is just below the STUTC.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I'm sending a PVN.GIF chart to
everyone on my chart email list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Jun 19 13:21:23 1999
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Date: Sat, 19 Jun 1999 16:00:51 EDT
Subject: Re: Bill Williams
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The only two that I've been able to do in Metastock are the 5/30-day average
and MFI. I, also, would like to see some of Bill's other indicators available
in Metastock. The Metastock library sells his books, it would be nice if they
offered programming for his indicators as well.
Joe Nemecek
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