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An update on the Dow Diamond+Fractal Retracements(see Dow0613.gif).
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see previous mails, subject:
"Diamonds - Dow" posted May, 26th 1999
"Re: re:gann" posted May, 17th 1999
"Diamonds - US 10 year yield" posted May, 17th 1999.
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Without lifting a finger the Dow, like a biljart's snooker-ball, caramboled-hitted
the Fractal Retracement's Support Levels(and later some now Resistance Levels), as
can be seen on the Chart and in the columns below.
Alongside, it also hit the falling Trend's paralel resistance line, and looks like
the Dow is on its way to hit the falling Trend's Support line as well(both Trend
lines can be drawn using the Diamonds small Broadening Top-pattern, by first drawing
the Diamonds V-shaped support line starting at the 10,655-Low(990430) and next, by
connecting+extending it to right via the 10,741-Low(990518), than to create the
paralel(rightclick) topline and to place this at the 11,131-Top(990513) and than,
to left+right extend topline(for template) to find its proper placing in the Chart).
This will have a channel being formed, which now needs edging, by left-drawing away
(to the left) from the start(10,655-Low) to the previous 10,766-High(990419), eg
than also finishing the V-shape (that usualy marks the bottom halve of a Diamond's
pattern).
Then, the Diamond heighth(476) deducted from (10,760-476) the Price's(Dow) Diamond
fallout(10,760, fallout on 990524) left, as mentioned before in the previous mailing,
a target of 10,284.
So with Fractal 1/3 retracement(10,462) left behind us(nearly), then next up is the
Fractal 1/2 retracement(10,128).
As mentioned also on previous Chart(+in the accompanying mailing), around this level
is, apart from the Diamonds fallout target(10,284), also the LongTerm(bold)
Fractal 1/4 retracement(10,215) to be found AND coincides with the above mentioned
Trend Channel's falling Support line(currently 10,201 on 990616).
All in all, and knowing that the 10yr U$ Yield has also rised(gained) roughly 2%,
from the 4.17-Low(981005) to current 5.95 Level(990611), all this also over the past
6-8 months, and expect it to rise further to the 6.5 level in the next 6-8 months
(see previous Diamond Gif+mailing), then a 20-30% correction (2*10, 3*10)
from former High, can also be expected on the Stock-markets(eg the Dow).
Looking at both Tables, 30% will be the (current) Fractal 1/3 (33.5%) retracement
at 10,462 (for the Short-Term), and (Long-Term) Fractal 1/3 (33.5%) at 9,910
,eg a re-test of a rounded figure(10,000 see previous mailing on FRACTAL Retracements
subject: "Re: re:gann" posted May, 17th 1999).
These latter moves are also True Swings.
Fractal Retracements -ST(thin)
Decimal%(Fr) Level Peak Through Peak2 Through2
0 11,131 990513 ?
12.5 10,880 990607
25 (1/4) 10,630 990524 ?
33.5(1/3) 10,462 990527 ?
50 (1/2) 10,128 ?
66.5(2/3) 9,794 ?
75 (3/4) 9,627
87.5 9,376
100 (3/3) 9,125
Fractal Retracements -LT(bold)
Decimal%(Fr) Level Peak Through
0 11,131 990513
12.5 10,673 990524
25 (1/4) 10,215 ?
33.5(1/3) 9,910 ?
50 (1/2) 9,299
Regards,
Ton Maas
ms-irb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dismiss the ".nospam" bit (including the dot) when replying.
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