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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>JimG,
Lionel, Ton and All:</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>First,
I need to thank JimG for the kind words. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>I
should probably explain that the Sell Signal we got was on our Intermediate Term
Signal (ITS) and it's the FIRST ITSS (ITS Sell) since October of last
year. Unfortunately, the ITSS is not very good at picking tops
or bottoms, just changes in market direction. If you had traded the
Intermediate Term Signal (ITS) by itself last year, you would have made a
lot of money, but the drawdowns were horrific, even though the signal
eventually turned a profit in all trades but one and that trade lost
just 8.50 points.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>What
we have done is to tie this ITS to our Short Term Signal (STS) and require
them to be in agreement before we execute a trade. Our STS has an
excellent track record at identifying market turns. Now, when we get
our next STS Sell Signal (STSS), we want to use it to
trade some puts (in addition to our normal S&P
contracts). </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>Now
here's my problem. As I've said many times before, we know absolutely
nothing about trading puts and calls. Every time we've tried to trade them
in the past, we've lost money! How's that for an admission?
<G></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>Now,
here are our results for the last 13 months (dropping the open
trade). </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999>I have calculated the averages and means for these
trades. For those trades the median number of days in each trade
was 10 and the average number of days was 15. The median profit was
39.70 points and the average profit was 43.00 per trade. What I want
to do is use these numbers and apply them to trading puts and calls.
Being a futures trader, I lean heavily toward leverage <G>, so my first
choice would be to buy el cheapo puts, OTM in order to maximize my
return (ROI). </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>Since both the median and average number
of days in each trade is less than 30 days, my thought is to trade near months
and somewhat OTM. Again, I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing
here. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>What
would you recommend in terms of how to approach these trades? Would I
maximize my return by buying near term, OTM puts (minimizing the cost of
time) or would buying ITM puts be a better approach? How would you
actually determine this? Are there formulae to do this? In my mind,
if you pay less for these puts, then you have the possibility of gaining
significant leverage and return, as long as you're
correct. </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=330284802-07061999>Any
and all help or recommendations would be appreciated.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999>Thanks</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999>Guy</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999> </SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN
class=330284802-07061999></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, June 06, 1999 5:11 PM<BR><B>To:</B>
Metastock<BR><B>Subject:</B> Weekly Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> A much needed up week for a change,
now if we can only get a few in a row. Even with the up week, I had a lot
of portfolio rotation. I did add the MSFT position on Tuesday.
On Friday, IOM and PMRY closed below my stops so I'll close those positions
Monday morning. Looking at the indices, The DJI did bounce
nicely off the bottom of its Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel (ITUTC) and
all the other indices I follow were up for the week. Therefore there
is no reason to change my opinion that we may be starting the summer rally
and I will play it with a mix of small and large cap stocks. The only
black cloud on the horizon is Guy's short signal and he says it may be a little
early. If he's right, and he has been very accurate, we could see most of
the indices rise to test last month's highs and then retreat from the double
tops. That's not what I'm predicting, but I'll sure be on the look out for
it <G>. In the mean time, I'll proceed as planned.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> This week I'm going to add both a
small cap and a large cap if they break out. My pick for the large cap is
Schwab (SCH) and for the small cap it's Chart Industries (CTI).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> SCH at 101 is being pressed into a
corner formed by the top of its Short Term Down Trend Channel (STDTC) and the
bottom of its Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel. One or the other, has to
break and I think the better ITUTC will hold. However, just to play it
safe. I'll wait for the STDTC to break and place a buy stop just above it.
SCH hit an all time high at 155 on 4/14/99 and then fell to a low of 96 1/8
Wednesday. That's almost a 40% correction in two months and should be
enough for a strong stock like this <G>. The StochRSI
indicators look like they could be setting up for a buy signal with the 13
negative but moving up and the 55 looking like it is near a negative peak.
The fundamentals are good except for the price/sales and P/E which are
still very high at 13.54 and 94 respectively. However, this is offset by
a 30% annual revenue growth and a 54% annual
earnings growth. I'm going to enter a buy stop just above the
top of the STDTC at 108. If I don't get the position and the stock
doesn't close below the bottom of the ITUTC, I'll move my buy stop down each
day just above the top of the channel. If I do get the position, I'll
set my target just below the April high at 154 and my stop just under the bottom
of the ITUTC at 95 3/4.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> CTI at 9 5/8 looks like it is trying
to bounce off the bottom of its STUTC. The top of the MS standard
deviation STUTC (dev at 2) is at 13 1/2 and the bottom (dev at 1) is at 9
1/2. It set an all time high of 23.29 on 4/27/98, then fell to a
low of 5 1/8 on 10/09/98. It then rose and broke out of its Intermediate
Term Down Trend Channel (ITDTC) then moved sideways to form a 7 month long
Horizontal channel (HC). It broke out of the top of that HC a month ago,
pulled back into the HC then broke out again two weeks ago. It ran up for
a week then fell back to the bottom of its STUTC and the top of the old HC to
its current position. The Tema Binary Wave and QStick are both
positive indicating an up trend. I'm going to enter a buy stop at 10
which is just above Thursday's high. I'll leave that buy stop in place
until I either get the position or the stock closes below the STUTC. If I
get the position, I'll set my target just under the all time high at
23. I'll set my stop just under the bottom of the STUTC at 8
3/4. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> I'm sending SCH.GIF and CTI.GIF
charts to everyone on my email list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JimG </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Jun 07 06:26:45 1999
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Date: Mon, 07 Jun 1999 08:33:49 +0200
From: Lars Andersson <Lars.Andersson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Updatingprogram for The downloader
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I live i Sweden
Lars Andersson
Bill Bateman wrote:
> Do you live in MACON?
>
> vam2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Lars Andersson <Lars.Andersson@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, June 06, 1999 9:20 AM
> Subject: Updatingprogram for The downloader
>
> >Hi.
> >I wonder if this program from a swedish company can be of any interest for
> anyone. It read the shareprices from different webpages and update the
> downloader. http://www.frndsw.com/eborsinet.htm
> >Yours Sincerely.
> >Lars Andersson
> >
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