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Jan,
No I didn't. I use mental stops only. When GMH closed below 48 3/4
Monday, I looked at the chart and thought the channel looked too narrow and
therefore the stop was too tight. After investigating I found out that I
had screwed up. I had the right hand of the channel set just after the
01/08 high. By my methodology, it should have been set just after the
highest high which was the 01/26 high. When I did that the channel widened
and the revised stop was 45 3/4. GMH never closed below that, so I'm still
in.
JimG
-----Original Message-----
From: Jan Robert Wolansky <jrwolansky@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, February 02, 1999 8:19 PM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>Jim, did you close your position in GMH since it went below your initial
stop?
>
>Jan
>
>Jim Greening wrote:
>
>> All
>> This was an interesting week in which I added AOL, AMZN, and ATHM to
my
>> portfolio and was stopped out of AMZN and RDC. I hate to add a stock and
>> delete it in the same week like AMZN, but I guess that's the way the
system
>> works and it has been successful for me. The good news is that my
portfolio
>> is up again for the week. As long as that continues to happen I won't
>> complain -- too much <G>.
>> January is over and so is my experiment with the small cap beaten
down
>> stocks for the January effect. The only one I have left in my portfolio
is
>> MDM which is up a little over 20%. Along the way I closed COHU for a 11%
>> gain, ROW for a 10% loss, IDTI for a 6% loss, SDTI for a 80% gain, SIF
for a
>> 15% gain, SHRP for a 15% loss, and RDC for a 27% loss. That's not bad
>> overall, but we didn't have any of the triple digit gainers I was looking
>> for. Looking at the indices, it still seems that the market is favoring
the
>> large cap, solid earning, market leaders, so that's where I'll
concentrate
>> except for a few bottom fishing expeditions that I can't seem to resist
<G>.
>> For example, I'm still watching the oil stocks for their long awaited
turn.
>> I'm still a little concerned about the way the DJI is acting, as it
>> keeps falling below the bottom of its Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC)
>> and then crawls back up into the channel only to fall through the bottom
>> again. The result of this action is that it is paralleling the bottom of
>> the channel up which isn't all that bad, but I would feel better if it
would
>> climb back into the channel and stay. To offset that we have the NASD
OTC
>> Index which keeps setting new all time highs. To me, that means I should
>> continue to cautiously add long high tech momentum type plays. However,
I
>> have enough Internet exposure and wanted to look into some other high
tech
>> areas this week. I think that I've done that by finding Hughs
Electronics
>> Corp (GMH).
>> Hughes Electronics' operations are overflowing with space. This
>> publicly traded commercial electronics unit of General Motors (GM) is
>> charting the heavens to establish itself as the market leader of the
>> commercial satellite services industry. It has made almost 40% of the
>> world's commercial satellites currently in operation, transmitting
>> everything from telephone calls and video conferences to TV news reports
and
>> TV programming. Its subsidiary DIRECTV is the largest satellite-TV
>> broadcaster in the US, offering more than 185 channels of programming to
>> more than 3.6 million customers. Its equipment arm is a top supplier of
>> wireless phone networks and cellular mobile systems. It also owns 81% of
>> PanAmSat, a 17-satellite (with six more expected by late 1999) global
>> network and supplier of satellite-based business networks, and is
developing
>> SPACEWAY, a global geostationary spacecraft system providing business and
>> consumer telecommunications services. It has been divesting its other
>> electronics interests to focus on communications.
>> GMH at 49 1/4 is in a well defined STUTC. I constructed the STUTC
from
>> the 12/18/98 low to the 1/18/98 high using the MetaStock Standard
Deviation
>> channel. The top with the deviation set at 2 is 57 1/8, the bottom with
the
>> deviation set at 1 is 48.92. GMH made an all time high of 57.88 on
5/13/88
>> and then went into an intermediate term down trend to a low of 30.38 on
>> 10/08/98. From there it recovered and pulled back again to the 12/18/98
low
>> then moved steadily up and broke out of the down trend channel on
12/31/98.
>> It then went on up to define the current STUTC. The Tema Binary wave and
>> Qstick are both positive and rising with the Binary Wave making an
>> especially strong showing. The fundamentals are OK with the price /sales
a
>> little high at 8.97, and debt/equity great at 0.09. It's sales and
earnings
>> have been negative as it shed its other businesses, but the recent strong
up
>> move suggests that most of that is behind it and the decks should be
cleared
>> for new growth. I'll open a position some time Monday. I'll set my
initial
>> target just under the top of the STUTC at 57 and my stop just under the
>> bottom of the STUTC at 48 3/4.
>> I'll send a GMH.GIF chart to everyone on my email chart list.
>>
>> JimG
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>
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