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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Thank you Mr. Greenspan
<G>. With a little help from the Fed we blasted through the mid
level resistance at the 8100-8200 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA) and aren't too far away from the top of the Horizontal Channel (HC) at
8750. AOL, DELL, and MSFT all broke out of their respective Short Term
Down Trend Channels (STDTC) at different times during the week so I went ahead
and opened the other half of my long positions on them. That leaves me
fully invested, sitting on some good profits, with long positions in AOL, CCI,
CY, DELL, EGGS, MSFT, NR, and SCH as well as some LEAP calls on
CCI.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> The question is where
do we go from here? The top of the DJIA HC is only a little over 300
points away and we should make it to there. However, it's not a confirmed
top in that its never been tested. It may hold and turn us back for one
final test of the bottom, or we may blast on through to test the Jul 98 high
just over 9400. To help with my thinking I looked at the S&P 500 and
100 indices. Both of them broke out of STDTCs during the week and are in
ill defined steep new Short Term Up Trend Channels (STUTC). That would
argue that we may break on through the top of the DJIA HC. Then I looked
at the NASDAQ OTC Composite Index and saw that it was rising, but still in a
STDTC about 70 points from the top of that channel. The Russell 2000
looked similar except that it's just under the top of its STDTC. That
would argue that we might be near a temporary top. With these mixed
signals, I finally decided that I didn't know the answer to the question, but
that wasn't the right question anyhow <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> The right question was,
what should I do with my portfolio. First all the indices are rising so
the real short term trend is strongly up and it is correct to be long, which I
am. Next, due to the uncertainty, this is not the time to enter new long
positions. I'll avoid any new long positions until we either break out of
the HC or pull back and bounce off the bottom once more. Also, I should be
taking measures to protect against a down turn. Since I'm fully invested
once again, I definitely won't be taking any new positions, and if I close a
position, I'll just sit on cash for now. I haven't really taken any steps
to protect myself against a down turn, but will as soon as I'm finished
here. I'm going to construct new STUTCs on all my stocks and set or
tighten all my targets and stops.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> That's it for this
week. Sorry, no new picks. That will have to wait until we break out
of the top of the DJIA HC or bounce off the bottom once more. At the rate
the market has been moving, that could well happen this week. I will send
a DJIA.GIF chart to everyone on my chart email list. If you aren't on the
list and want on, just yell.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>JimG
</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Oct 17 10:06:26 1998
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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:41:08 -0500
From: Craig DeHaan <cdehaan@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: LTD and Shark Pattern
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UG,
A limited centralized topical image library is a reasonable and generous
idea if you're not adverse to the editing task and couldn't possibly
threaten list traffic considering recent erratic majordomo filtrations.
That green dotted line -- an errant Tema(CMO(C,20),21) of dissimilar
scaling from the source template. For sample clarity I meant to
eliminate it, but forgot and assumed it would be ignored (twice).
Tres observant.
Craig
UG wrote:
> Again, since this is useful to me (and putting the gif on the web page
> is as easy for me as decoding it and viewing locally), I've put this
> image with its corresponding email on:
>
> http://www.unixgeek.com/images/invest/sharkspec.html
>
> I'll be doing this as I come across things that I want to see, and I'll
> post to the list when I do it in case others may want to see it also.
>
> If anyone would rather me not do this for the sake of list traffic, let
> me know.
>
> What is the dotted green line in that picture, BTW?
>
> ========================================================================
> SECOND LAW OF COMMUNICATION: The information conveyed is less important
> than the impression.
> http://www.unixgeek.com/cgi-bin/motd.pl - PGP email preferred
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