|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN"><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN"><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
<META content='"MSHTML 4.72.2106.11"' name=GENERATOR>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Steve, Guy, Jim e all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>>With regards to the
market, could it be that the DOW is currently <BR>>completing a head and
shoulder pattern with the current sideways<BR>>movement between 8200-7400
being the right shoulder? If so,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>>neckline is at 7400 and if we break that, target level
would be</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>>around 7400-(9400-7400) = 5400.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>>5500 is also where some kind of significant support is
located.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>See attached GIF(DJ981005.gif)</FONT> <BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Have you tried, now, after it has been well
downbroken, to recreate the former and<BR>the next, but lower placed
channel,i.e. Multiple Trend Channels ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>To create:</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Rising Trend Support line(s) can be drawn from
ruler-connecting the former major LOWs:<BR> 777 -1st RTSL acceleration
starting point in Aug82<BR>2350 -2nd RTSL acceleration starting point in
Oct90<BR>3600 -3td RTSL acceleration starting point in Nov94<BR>5200 -4th RTSL
acceleration starting point in Jul96() </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>By duplicating the last RTSL, using the
MS-"create paralel line" tool, and placing<BR>this line on the last
HIGHs, in this the 2x highs in Aug97(8300) and Jul98(9368),<BR>you have the in
time rising MAJOR support and resistance by trendchannel.<BR>Since the Price
down breach and clear fall out of the trend channel, a new and exact<BR>parallel
channel can be drawn and placed below the old channel, applying the
same<BR>width of the excisting OLD channel.<BR>In this, where I used to
calculate the width and then drawing/copying the line, have found</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>that it is very well to be created, and a lot
better and easier easier, by using the MS<BR>build-in Andrews' Pitchfork
tool.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Since I have done all this, found that the 3td
and 4th RTSL's are much alike and as such<BR>have used the 3td RTSL acc-point as
main MT-UTC starting point. This as Nov94(3600) is<BR>also the major LOW prior
to the outbreak of todays' currently valid InterMediateTerm-UpTrend</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Channel(IMT-UTC).<BR>The Andrews' Pitchfork
automatically draws the CORRECT 2nd, new and stapled parallel</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>rising channel now(most important, with exact
measurements in width).<BR>Much like as how I usualy draw a new support line by
recreating a new, parallel<BR>channels' ST-rising support line(from copying the
line placed on top of the current<BR>valid 2 MAJOR HIGHs and then parallel move
to previous MAJOR LOW).<BR>The above also valid method is used as you are
looking for the IMT and not the ST Trend<BR>and in that, at the most
right-hand-side in the chart, they only differ 100 points.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>So now we have the new future to be expected
MAJOR Rising Support by Trend Line.<BR>Currently 981005 this value is at 6520
and in time ofcourse, this will be rising to new higher levels.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>From TUBING the fromer horizontal TRADE ZONES,
wich are non-rising trend channels,<BR>also confirms that these Zones are 600 in
width. Stapled then gives the next down at<BR>6400-7000, with current 7600-8200
and former at 8800-9400.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>With this example being practice as well, hope
to have clearified that it is now, tho<BR>your assumingly H+Ss Reversal Pattern
looks like it is being formed, too premature to<BR>consider it to be a valid
pattern. It is not certain yet that 7400 would be the neckline<BR>as Oct97(6975)
or even Apr97(6357) LOWs are to be considered for future patterns low.<BR>Also
it has taken 6 months for the asumed Left S to be developed(Jul97-Feb98),
and<BR>transfering this period to this late Aug98(=first attemp), leaves
Feb99-next year, to<BR>eventualy clearify on the matter(s).<BR><BR>Now I will
start assuming by having the new Bullish Reversal H+Ss currently
under<BR>construction with S at 7400, H at 6800, S at etc. etc. if my previous
mails targets are being<BR>met(from the above: 6400 could be the H as well
then). From "old resistance becomes<BR>support" 7000(give or take 200)
is next support, thus a valid H+Ss in creation.<BR>Currently and then confirmed,
an Irregular Bearish H+Ss Pattern is also developing<BR>with, when valid, an
estimated Target 4033 ((6700-2667), as the Hight=2667<BR>(9367-6700 neckline
fallout, on the Dutch AEX-index we currently have fully finished
off</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>such a pattern). <BR>Tho, considering the above
are yet to be developed, this too would be at the present,<BR>all in all be too
many premature assumptions.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Current Valid "Statistics":<BR>7532 =
Bearish Reversal H+Ss Target</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>7298 = Diamond fallout Target</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>7121 = IMT Rising Wedge fallout
Target</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>6837 = Current Rising Flag-2 in Downtrend
fallout Target</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>6520 = Rising Double Channel Support Line(in
time, does not neccesaraly have to be hit rightaway)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Note that the above mentioned patterns currently do apply on
lots of other Indexes as well, also</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>elsewhere on this globe.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Thanks for the Candlesticks-info and cannot agree more on the
fundamental alinea contents.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Reg. Ton</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----</B><BR><B>Van:
</B>Steve Gochuico <<A
href="mailto:stevego@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>stevego@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Aan:
</B>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Datum:
</B>zondag 4 oktober 1998 3:38<BR><B>Onderwerp: </B>Re: Interesting
Charts<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>Ton,<BR><BR>Based
on the H and S pattern, I calculated that LU has a target<BR>price of $36.00
also but I am a bit skeptical, that's why I was<BR>hesitant to put a price
target. <BR><BR>>Do candlesticks have a way to measure/set
targets?<BR><BR>Candlesticks don't seem to have a way to set targets. It's
strength<BR>lies in pattern recognition or pattern warnings such as
morning<BR>star reversals, evening star reversals, hammer, spinning tops,
etc.<BR>The beauty of candlesticks comes out when it is used in
conjunction<BR>with western charting analysis techniques. A hammer forming
on a <BR>support line or on a 50 day EMA has more significance than one
forming<BR>somewhere else.<BR><BR>With regards to the market, could it be
that the DOW is currently <BR>completing a head and shoulder pattern with
the current sideways<BR>movement between 8200-7400 being the right shoulder?
Chart attached<BR>below. If so, neckline is at 7400 and if we break that,
target level<BR>would be around 7400-(9400-7400) = 5400. Interestingly, an
article<BR>from Fortune Magazine dated Sept. 28, '98 said that if the
market<BR>would return to it's historical median P/E, it would have to fall
to<BR>around 5500. 5500 is also where some kind of significant support
is<BR>located. Anyway, just some food for thought, this analysis could
<BR>be wrong. <BR><BR>Fundamentally, this market needs a correction, it is
just way too<BR>overvalued. The first two quarters has seen companies'
average<BR>earnings growth around 4% annualized with stocks P/E in the
<BR>stratosphere area, example would be Coke(40 P/E) and Gillette(30
P/E).<BR>There's just no compelling reason for the market to go up some
more.<BR>Read that from Fortune. They could be wrong also.<BR><BR>Anyway,
happy weekend to all.<BR><BR>Regards,<BR><BR>Steve
Gochuico<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\DJ981005.gif"
|