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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy and Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Take a deep breath. </FONT><FONT size=2>Hope you are both
right, o</FONT><FONT size=2>therwise, if 7400 holds, you can breath out,
and</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>see a test of how strong the </FONT><FONT size=2>other
</FONT><FONT size=2>(in Flag) oposite </FONT><FONT size=2>rising resistance
trendline is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT size=2>We'll see the results soon.</FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Last weeks "Up-Flag in the Downtrend(=bearish)"
small rising Flags trendline support was</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>around 7800 and HAS been <FONT
size=2>down-broken(=bearish)</FONT>. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>7400 downbroken too would mean a retest of 6975(n<FONT
size=2>ot that that type of support means a lot)</FONT>,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>and that level </FONT><FONT size=2>has historicaly only been
hit once! </FONT><FONT size=2>but gives you a slight idea that
IF.......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Target from last fall out : Flag Low(7400) - Flag
Hight(7963-7400) = 6837(7400-563).</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Daily BBands are strongly widening(=for the VST
more volatility ahead)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Weekly BBands are narrowing(=for the ST lesser volatility
ahead) </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Heavy positive divergences
in daily Osc,RSI,MACD,CMO(all new, or about to, second higher
bottoms).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>For the moment all of this implying, that the strongest part
of the downfall, in this tech.corection, has</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>occured </FONT><FONT size=2>a few weeks ago.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Reg. Ton </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Oorspronkelijk
bericht-----</B><BR><B>Van: </B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Aan:
</B>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Datum:
</B>vrijdag 2 oktober 1998 21:28<BR><B>Onderwerp: </B>Re: Buy
Signal<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>
Sure looks like it turned and the DJI 7500 level held once
more.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Friday, October 02, 1998 9:45 AM<BR><B>Subject: </B>Buy
Signal<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>Jim<BR><BR>Well, here we go again. Got
a Buy signal for this AM,
FWIW.<BR><BR>Regards<BR><BR>Guy<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Oct 03 18:35:06 1998
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From: "Lionel Issen" <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: RWI - Random Walk Index system
Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 08:21:02 -0500
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Ton:
Thanks for your reply.
It was my error that you got 2 copies of my meesage.
I think I have the original articles by Poulos, I think that there were 2.
If you want a copy, let me know and I'll look thru the back issues of TASC.
Regards
Lionel
-----Original Message-----
From: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, October 03, 1998 7:57 AM
Subject: Re: RWI - Random Walk Index system
Lionel,
Besides that I'm receiving your replies in duplo(do you have the choice in
"reply to sender"
or "reply to all", then prefer to only use "reply to sender" as that will
send to a single address)
here some "facts" on the RWI system and the original Equis/Poulus RWI
formula/MS help info.
-The Equis web-site formula contains a few errors as in formulating and
typing the formula.
-As to futher formulating, any "better-ing" solutions/suggestions are always
wellcomed.
-The Maximum function Max(Data Array, Data Array) returns the largest of two
values(p.234).
By using several other Max's within a Max results in the Maximum
comparisson by the
program of, and as, to wich value of each Max is the largest. In this:
Max(funct1,Max(funct2,Max(funct3,Max(funct4,0))))
always returns the highest value of one of the Max functions(terms) used
for that day(period)
and wich Max, that is being returned, too, is always greater then 0;
otherwise the 0 used to differ to, is being returned.
The seperate ranges(conditions with one or more functions within a part of
the total formula) you
mention are multi-folded on, and per, each line set out(The terms or
conditions of a function).
The LT 50 you refer to, was indeed not the LT with say 50 odd Max's. That's
what got stuck
in my mind too last night, and as such, today have send on the revised
version of the original
RWI-sytem mail. Delete the old one, as there were more, minor errors fixed
and other type of
addition(al)s made to it.
I have not read Mr. Poulos article, as I do not have it, but sort of used
all that is available to me.
One of that was ofcourse Equis original, others where either mailings, small
articles, explanations
etc. Since I was writing this for my private use, got to stick it down to
using the Equis original and
went on from there.
In the MS-build-in Help and MS manuals more references where to be found and
also the fact
that I had used the v65 standard RWI- build-in -Indicator before.
Along with some of the other of the "Trend" indicating masters, like
MESA-Sine, fiddled around
a bit to get to know more and see the results.
Since these were very promissing, went on to add the RWI Highs + Lows v6.5
(p.242), the custom
versions, and went on futher and futher resulting in another set of custom
indicators for the collection.
The fact as to if the indicators are 100% TRUE Mr. Poulos indicators did not
came into it anymore,
with all of the either adjustments made or the additionals I added and
writing a proper "manual" for
them all. Besides that, my main aim was to have good resulting giving
indicators, and as
such I succeeded very well.
Didn't bother much about writing the SystemTest/ExpertAdv for now, as it,
all in all, takes up to much
of 'valuable' time to get there where I wanted it to go to(eg forecast the
markets Mode).
But now there is a very solid base to even futher develop it, maybe even
into even more better
signaling indicators.
All in all was quite pleased with results, enough to pass it along to the
List and our MS club.
If you or others would like to add to this, by all means, do so. Help is
always appreciated and
lets hope that from all of that has or is or is going to be written, was and
is for the better
(for Listers too).
Thanks also to the List, Equis/Ms and several other sources and ofcourse our
Dutch MS Users
group, I have gotten as far as I have now in doing all of this.
Best Regards,
Ton Maas.
-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: Lionel Issen <lissen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Aan: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
CC: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
Datum: vrijdag 2 oktober 1998 19:39
Onderwerp: Re: RWI - Random Walk Index system
Maas:
While my manual for V6.5 page 242 shows "random walk index of highs" and
"random walk index of lows" the only random walk index in my indicator
library is the one I downloaded from the Equis web site. The web site
version does not do justice to the random walk index at all.
I thought that Poulos had separated the ranges of from 1 to 9 days (short
term), and from 10 to 60 days (long term).
There are several formulations for the random walk index. Some time ago, I
found several on the internet formulated for Supercharts; including one from
a consultant who pointed out the errors in at least one other formulation of
this index.
There appears to be an error in your formulation. You are misusing the
"max" function. You can only have a max of 2 or more values. Your set up
shows a max of several individual functions. You need a formulation
something like
MAX ( funct1, funct2, funct3, etc) instead of
MAX(funct1),MAX(funct2),MAX(funct3) etc
Your long term LT 50 day formulation is a repetition of the short term ST 8
day. For the long term formulation you need a MAX of 51 terms (10 to 60).
You have shown that using V6.5 it may be possible to formulate the random
walk index with this software. Some time ago Equis support said that this
could not be done, and that it was difficult to include it as a built in
indicator.
Regards
Lionel
-----Original Message-----
From: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
To: Metastock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: rijt, wil v.d. <wil.rijt@xxxxxx>; Rene Dennesen
<dennesen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Onno Goedknegt <goedkneg@xxxxxx>;
m.jonker@xxxxxxxxxx <m.jonker@xxxxxxxxxx>; LuudMaas2
<nlcou936@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; KLPD, Jan <klpdmozo@xxxxxx>; Jan Diederik Haas
de <jddehaas@xxxxxxx>; derksenf <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Jan van Diessen
<diessen@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, October 01, 1998 8:52 PM
Subject: RWI - Random Walk Index system
================================================================
RWI - Random Walk Index System - E.M. Poulos/T. Maas - for Metastock v6.x
================================================================
Re-written by Ton Maas - 981001 - Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx - Amsterdam - The
Netherlands.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
The original formula of the Random Walk Index, was created by Equis Intl.
using
information from the article "Are There Persistent Cycles", by E. Michael
Poulos,
in the September 1992 issue of TASC.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
------
This indicator is defined as the ratio of an acutal price move to the
expected
random walk. If the move is greater than a random walk, and thus a trend is
present,
its index will be larger than "1.0" .
Random Walk
An economic theory that price movements in the commodity futures markets and
in the
securities markets are completely random in character (i.e., past prices are
not a
reliable indicator of future prices).
Random Walk Index
Description
In an effort to find an indicator that overcomes the effects of a fixed
look-back
period and the drawbacks of traditional smoothing methods, Michael Poulos
developed
the Random Walk Index. The Random Walk Index is based on the basic geometric
concept
that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. The
further prices
stray from a straight line during a move between two points in time, the
less
efficient the movement.
Interpretation
Mr. Poulos found significant evidence during his research that the "dividing
line"
between short- and long-term time frames for most futures and stocks is
right around
eight to 10 days. Therefore, he feels an effective trading system using the
RWI can
be devised using two different time frames:
1.a short-term RWI (two to seven periods) for the market's frantic, random
side and
2.a long-term RWI (eight to 64 periods) for the market's steady, trending
side.
-Peaks in the short-term RWI of highs tend to coincide with price peaks.
-Peaks in the short-term RWI of lows tend to coincide with price troughs.
-Readings of the long-term RWI of highs above 1.0 provides a good indication
of a
sustainable uptrend.
-Readings of the long-term RWI of lows below 1.0 provide a good indication
of a
sustainable downtrend.
Indicators
The Random Walk Index is standard build-in in Metastock v6.5. See below for
its
Parameters. However custom versions can be build by using the Indicator
Builder.
In Metastock v6.5:
NAME Random Walk Index [6.5] High
SYNTAX rwih( PERIODS )
FUNCTION Calculates the predefined Random Walk Index of the highs indicator.
EXAMPLE rwih( 21 )
NAME Random Walk Index [6.5] Low
SYNTAX rwil( PERIODS )
FUNCTION Calculates the predefined Random Walk Index of the lows indicator.
EXAMPLE rwil( 21 )
Parameters v6.5
Standard Time Periods ST = 9
Standard Time Periods LT = 70
Standard Indicator Color = High: Red,Solid and Low: Red,Dotted
Standard Horizontal Line = 1.0, Black/Blue
Note that by DEFAULT the v6.5 build-in is set to 9 for the periods used for
both
functions, and when 'dragged' from the Indicator Builder to the chart, both
will
be promptly plotted as the 1 indicator in their inner window.
In Metastock v6.x:
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] High"
Formula:
{This is the ST 9-day version of the RWI. Color High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
Standard Horizontal Line = 1.0, Black/Blue
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-1)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-2)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-3)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-4)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-5)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-6)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-7)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-8)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),0))))))))
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] Low"
Formula:
{This is the ST 9-day version of the RWI. For High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-1) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-2) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-3) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-4) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-5) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-6) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-7) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-8) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),0))))))))
Note that for both the High+Low as functions or as indicators "friendly
error
messages are returned regarding the division of "0". This is very common in
the program and in this they can be ignored. These "friendlies" will not
affect their functioning, values, output or readings.
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] LT High"
Formula:
{This is the LT 50-day version of the RWI. Color High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
SUM(
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-1)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-2)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-3)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-4)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-5)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-6)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-7)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (HIGH -Ref(LOW,-8)) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),
0)))))))),40)
NAME:
"Random Walk Index [6.0] LT Low"
Formula:
{This is the LT 50-day version of the RWI. For High: Red,Solid
and the Low: Red,Dotted. Horizontal line at 1.0(Black/Blue)}
SUM(
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-1) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),2),-1) / 2)*Sqrt(2) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-2) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),3),-1) / 3)*Sqrt(3) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-3) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),4),-1) / 4)*Sqrt(4) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-4) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),5),-1) / 5)*Sqrt(5) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-5) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),6),-1) / 6)*Sqrt(6) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-6) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),7),-1) / 7)*Sqrt(7) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-7) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),8),-1) / 8)*Sqrt(8) ),
Max( (Ref(HIGH,-8) -LOW) / ( (Ref(Sum(ATR(1),9),-1) / 9)*Sqrt(9)),
0)))))))),40)
System
Mr. Poulus feels that an effective trading system could be built that opens
trades (after short-term pull-backs against the direction of the long-term
trend)
using the following guidelines:
·Enter long (or close short) when the long-term RWI of the highs is greater
than 1.0, and the short-term RWI of lows peaks above 1.0.
·Enter short (or close long) when the long-term RWI of the lows is greater
than 1.0, and the short-term RWI of highs peaks above 1.0.
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