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Tokyo's further decline ahead(see att. Nik0927.gif) with 12500-12000 as PAUSE
between now and next years target 10500-10000.
However a strong advancing YEN esp. vs US$ (see below mail "Re: Exit Strategies")
can set any futher downsliding(eg targets as steep as 7500-7000) to a long
awaited (temp) stand still.
Also this weekends final arranged treaty pack(again?), on one of Japans most
urgently to be solved "banking creditability" problems between the government and
the opposition on the Long Term Credit Bank(LTCB), can stop Tokyo declining
much further than the at the top mentioned targets.
But many more die hard actions by the Jap. gov. on countries disrupted financial
creditabilaty matters is desperately required to restore any of the markets believes
and sentiment, and thus creating for Japan(+most of Asia) a turn-around.
Technical correction for the YEN returning to former support at 125-115 can be expected.
Regards,
Ton Maas
Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx
====================================================
-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: A.J. Maas <anthmaas@xxxxxx>
Aan: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Datum: maandag 14 september 1998 2:21
Onderwerp: Re: Exit strategies
>Steve,
>
>If you'ld ask me, my guess is best to short the US$, implementing
>-long DM(vs US$)
>-long Yen(vs US$), chart says there is potention(can their intrest-rate go any lower?)(<0.75%)
>-short UKPnd(vs ECU or DM)
>
>Charts unfortunatly are not fully trustworthy as to the long term as my data starts
>somewhere @ beginning of Jun98. But for the IMT, Short and very short term this does
>not affect their outlook, wich is not very promissing for the US$, actualy plain bearish.
>
>This can be due to the impeachment uncertainty, but this is basicaly a local US-afair,
>and my guess is that with the conversion date(990101) for the EURO comming up,
>not only China is converting part of 1/3tds of its assets-reserves into the EURO but other
>countries are also doing this semi-converting, as well as many major financial and
>other government institutions.
>As the EURO is currently "virtualy" available through giro and bank accounts, this
>converting can be done VERY "quitly" and also step by step, bit by bit(even on a daily basis).
>This "virtual" means that the present physical available local currencies still have to be used.
>Both DM and DGR(dutch guilder) are, but the UKPnd is NOT to go up in the EURO.
>For the UK this is not due untill the year 2002, and it will be referendum-polled first(in the UK).
>Also the UK will have to meet up with the very strict "former BundesBank" EMU-Maastricht
>treaty criterea, before final entry is possible.
>
>Futhermore, in the recent past, the US$(bonds) has been a save haven for money
>flowing from Emerging Marktes(incl. withdrawls), but by now this is fully reflected in the
>prices. Future settling of these markets will mean a 'creaping' withdrawl out of the US$.
>To start with the Russian Rubble, then the Latinos and then ASEAN.
>Thus this fleeing hype can be over somewhere this autum/winter98.
>
>This decline of the US$ tho, must be good news for the US exchanges and bad news for
>the rest of the world, as profits made in the US$ worlwide, will have to be report-converted
>into the companies local currencies.
>
>Chart of UKPnd/DGR(=for Guy, as I did not have UK/DM data) is loaded with proper history
>and for the prices actions and trends movements sake, the DGR is fully correlated with
>the DM(roughly 1.12).
>
>Think the EURO(read its current underlying valuta) is to be "this coming winters save haven"
>also for anyone having doubts about the excaturated non-political 'internet-report' and Russias
>impact on the world economy.
>
>Didn't have time to look at the US$/Can$ but from the above can understand why its is meeting
>up with heavy resistance.
>
>Regards,
>Ton Maas
>Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx
>
>===========================================================
>
>I haven't looked at the long DMark short Yen, but take a look at the
>DMark/Lbs spread. My dad had one of his famous dreams about that one a
>couple of weeks ago <ggg>.
>
>
>-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
>Van: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Aan: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Datum: vrijdag 11 september 1998 2:38
>Onderwerp: Re: Exit strategies
>
>
>>Ton,
>>Any opinions on long D-Mark short Yen spreads. Guy, would like
>>to hear your opinion also. I still riding the Can $ from the
>>low 63's. It has to get through some fib, Gann and trendline
>>resistance at 66.30...so, I playing pretty close to the vest.
>>The spread intrigues me and looks credible from a technical
>>angle.
>>Thanks,
>>Steve Karnish
>>CCT
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