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Re: LONG / SHORT ?


  • To: Ben John <bjohn@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • Subject: Re: LONG / SHORT ?
  • From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 16:21:45 -0400 (EDT)
  • In-reply-to: <360932E0.92EEE843@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

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Ben,

I have a minute so I will try to explain.
If you take the following stochastic

(Stoch(2,2) +  Stoch(3,3) +  Stoch(4,4) +  Stoch(5,5)
+ Stoch(6,6) +  Stoch(7,7) + Stoch(10,10))
/7

Then add your 20 80 lines.
If it is above 80 and crosses below plus if trajectory of the trend shows
that it must go higher then this is the ideal place to short. I measure the
trajectory of the trend with what I call the Jarvis Factor. If you have MS
6.5 I can send you the formula password protected.

Also when you construct your trend lines one method of doing so is the
Wychoff method. Take the most recent high then the failed rally to draw your
first line. Then construct a parallel line that is the low that occurs in
the sell off between the peak and the rally. Extend both to the right. This
will be the supply line.

If you do this with NWAC it will be it's 52 week high. When you suggested
NWAC was moving up it is only moving up toward the top of the supply line. A
new place to go short.

AMAT is headed up in a short trend I agree but with their fundamentals I
don't expect it to hold up.
Same thing with NWAC, they were bleeding money. Mu is also having financial
trouble.

Not that I am an expert by any means because I do get nervous shorting
stocks when my resources in my account are low. But I have been shorting
stocks now for over a year, yes even in our raging bull market.

I hope this helps answer some of your questions.

Harley

Ben John wrote:

> Harley,
>
>   Please explain to me what you are using to signal shorts.  This only
> stock I would considers shorting out of (AMAT, NWAC, MU) is MU.  This is
> only because the over bought condition and overhead resistance.  All of
> them look like they are heading up to me.     By me making the previous
> statement this should be a indication that YOU ARE RIGHT BECAUSE I HAVE
> BEEN GETTING KILLED!
>
> Good Luck,
>
> Ben