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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2> I
have Nison's book on "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" and
have tried to follow/use some of the formations with no success what so
ever. I even tried some systems with candlestick formations, but didn't
get good returns. I'm convinced that there may be something to it and even
use the Candlestick charts, but so far it just hasn't soaked in
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jim</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, September 13, 1998 12:57 PM<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Jim</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Took a look at my DJIA weekly charts with the corresponding BB (using
their defaults) and by BB range runs from 9350 and 6600 with the current
position being just below the mid point around 7900. I can be like the
NBC talking heads and say we have an equal chance of going up or going
down.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>FWIW, we finally got a Sell Signal.....</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Now our 'Contrary' was a 36 and our maximum is 35 (based upon
probabilities). Now comes the basic question and the second guessing
of our system, do we wait, and follow the trading rules, or do we say that's
close enough and short the market.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Hopefully our maturity will prevail and we will wait. We need
another up day, but not quite as strong. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Wish I knew more about Candlesticks, but when I switched over to that
format, the pattern looks interesting. If I only knew what it means
<G>. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=230521316-13091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Jim
Greening<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, September 12, 1998 10:54
AM<BR><B>To:</B> Metastock<BR><B>Subject:</B> Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> The market did
move up yesterday and I did open my DELL position at 56 3/8. So
far so good, now if it will just follow through <G>. I took
a long look at the indices last night and they are acting right for my
theory. To expand it a little, I believe the DJIA is trying to set
up a volatile sideways or horizontal channel trading range between 7500
and 8000. The DJIA is not near the bottom of any of my trend
channels but both the OEX and SPX are bouncing off the bottom of long
term channels. There is , however, some support for the DJIA near
7500 from the Jan lows and resistance above 8000 from last falls
highs. Looking at the daily action, the DJIA has tested the 7500
level three times in the last two weeks so it does look like a bottoming
action. With the volatility we have seen, I fully expect another
test of the 8000 level soon. However, this is still a somewhat
tenuous theory and a long way from reality. I will commit to
positions to play the theory, but want to do so more cautiously then
usual with very close stops. That means any stock I pick must be
close to the bottom of the channel since I set my stops under the
channel and preferable has just bounced up a little. Also I'm only
going to play the large market leaders in groups I'm interested
in. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Even with the
large DELL position and my normal size RDC position, I'm still over 50%
cash and want at least one more position to play the bounce I'm hoping
for. I think the brokers and financial service groups have been
over punished and over sold lately so that's the group for this weeks
pick. I narrowed my list to Schwab and Travelers Group (TRV) and
decided on TRV since it is so over sold and since Sandy Weill always
bounces back. I only wish I had ridden his coat tails more in the
past <G>. TRV is going to be the true financial services
giant when the merger with Citicorp is completed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> TRV at 40 7/8
broke out of a Short Term Down Trend Channel Friday on good
volume. It's also in a Long Term Up Trend Channel (LTUTC) with the
top at 80 3/8 and the bottom at 38. It peaked at 73 3/8 on 4/6/98
and then went into a four month CANSLIM cup type formation but failed to
breakout in Jul and then went into a tail spin to a low of 36.4375
Friday morning before the good up move. Looking at the chart, the
last week shows a typical Equivolume reversal pattern with TRV bouncing
off the bottom of the LTUTC twice on high volume. It closed at the
lows on the first bounce, but closed at the highs yesterday. The
Support/Resistance and CMO indicators look like the beginning of a
reversal pattern. The fundamentals are better than ever with the
PE at 12.1, price/sales at 1.1, return on equity at 17.5%, 5 yr. revenue
growth rate at 49% and 5 yr. earnings growth rate at 19%. TRV just
kept growing while the stock price dropped. That's why I think
it's so over sold and such a bargain right here. I'll take a long
position at Monday's open, set my target just under the top of the LTUTC
at 80 and my mental stop just under it at 37 3/4. I'd like to hang
on to this one as a long term core position if it will let me so I'll
wait until a good short term up trend channel forms before moving my
stop up to it. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> I'm sending a
TRV.GIF chart to everyone on my email chart list. If you're not on
the list, and want on, just yell.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>Jim </FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Sep 13 13:35:17 1998
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Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 14:28:34 -0500
From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Week in Review - shorts on AMAT & NWAC
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Last weeks trading in terms of bottom line was
good. But in terms of decision making I am not
very pleased with last week.
NWAC - I had a little over $400 on the table. My
mistake was not to realize that the stock wasn't
really going lower in the short run as determined
over the previous two days prior to the
announcement of the strike ending. Then the strike
ended and the $400 is now about $100 on my first
100 shares and -$100 on my second 100 shares. All
the bad news is out with respect to their earnings
for the next 3 qtrs. So I do expect it to trade
lower but when is the question.
What will I do? Don't know. I am not going to take
a short term loss I'll tell you that much.
Here is my dilemma. If the futures is way up on
Monday morning NWAC may gap up. If so I hold and
may have to wait a few days. If it doesn't gap up
I can sell 100 shares to take my $100 gain. This
will raise cash plus a profit for another trade.
AMAT - This is the one I am most upset at myself
with. For several reasons:
1 - I entered two short positions too close to
each other, 100 @ 24 and 100 @ 23 7/8.
2 - On Thursday I knew exactly what was going to
happen on Friday in terms of the market - DJIA -
retesting the lows and AMAT also moving lower. And
I wanted to cover my position. I could of at 23
13/16. But did not.
3 - Several days ago AMAT bounced off of long term
support. 3 weeks ago I was looking for it but I
forgot about it when it happened.
4 - Because of the draw down on my account I was
not willing to enter into the market to take
advantage of another day trading opportunity.
5 - And all of this adds up to - I hate to lose a
trade, i.e., money. (Which I am starting to see
differently. But that is another story.)
What will I do. I still believe AMAT will trade
below 24 again. But if I sit on this I could have
draw down for a few days and will be missing
trading opportunities. My basic strategy is to
cover at least 100 shares around 25, if possible.
So I can have plenty of cash on hand when it does
start to come back down. But if it gaps up in the
morning then I may have to wait. Why because it
isn't going that high.
Harley
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