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Steve,
Thanks for the warnings and the analysis. Don't worry, you
didn't scare me off. I look at candlesticks and all the other
indicators too, but when push comes to shove I trust the trend
channels much more. I may be wrong, but if I am I'll be out for a
small loss as soon as the stock closes below the trend channel.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, September 11, 1998 1:36 AM
Subject: Re: DELL
>Jim,
>
>I respect you posts and your willingness to let it all hang out
>in public. I would like to caution you on your Dell trade. I'm
>just a dumb ex stock jockey who chooses to play in another arena
>(futures)...but TA is TA is TA and I think there is some
>compelling reasons why Dell is dead in the water. I don't know
>where to start, but how about some Japanese candles?
>
>DELL posted a Bearish Engulfing pattern on Wednesday (very
>bearish), followed by a Doji (indecision) that gapped down.
>Worse yet, in "candlestick land", is the weekly pattern: Dell
>created a Evening Star pattern over the last three weeks, with a
>nice looking Hanging Man at the end of the three candle
>formation (nothing but bad news in that formation). If that
>isn't evidence enough, candlestickwise, (a new word here), the
>monthly chart is posting a big fat Shooting Star (another
>bearish brick in the candlestick wall). So, what do the
>Japanese know about the markets anyway? Let's move on to some
>good old amerikan technical indicators.
>
>I studied with Welles Wilder for a week back in '81. I think
>the RSI can be helpful as tool (in conjunction with other
>indicators). Looking at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts
>(applying the RSI), I can only repeat the same word that
>describes the three charts: divergence, divergence, divergence.
>This is the classic formation that all futures and equities get
>"crushed" from. Higher market, lower RSI ... eventually, the
>market follows the indicator.
>
>George Lane taught some classes at University of Chicago and
>University of Michigan (Guy's dorky school) and along the way he
>came up with the stochastic indicator. I'm well aware that it
>moves to the same drummer as the RSI...but, I think it's a
>useful tool and I look at it daily, while applying it to
>indices, equities, and futures' charts. Daily, monthly, weekly
>(for DELL) ... all the same story ... turning over and turning
>down. Not many issues can fight this indicator once it starts
>slipping away. Also, it's rare to find agreement in all three
>time categories.
>
>Finally, I'd like to share with you the Gann numbers that were
>developed off the move from the high on 8/27 of 64.88 and the
>low of 9/1 of 46.87. The retracement levels are as follows:
>51.32
>53.55
>55.78 9/3 high=55.56; 9/4 high=55.62; 9/10 high=55.75
>58.00 9/2 high=57.75
>60.23 9/8 high=60.25, 9/9 high=60.75
>
>Got love "dem" retracements when the issue keep slamming up
>against them
>
>Jim, I not trying to talk you off the trade. You are an astute
>trader that's willing to share your ideas with the group. We
>all appreciate the effort you make. The above Dell comment made
>me want to see what you were doing. Everyday, I do the above
>exercise and use an additional 7 or 8 indicators to supplement
>RSI, Sto's, Gann and Fib, andthe the candles. I work these
>indicators on about thirty commodities and look for solid
>opportunities. I hope you don't mind me sharing my thoughts on
>your play tomorrow. As a wise investor, you have already
>determined your objective and risk. Your sell stop should
>protect you and this should be a lesson to all equity players.
>As you are so acutely aware of: you don't put on a trade and
>then when it doesn't work out ... you "position trade it".
>That's totally wrong and incredibly bad advice. So Harley, if
>you're reading this, knock off the monotonous dribble about your
>trading style and take a hint from Jim. Real traders always have
>a plan. Jim states his reasons, identifies his objective,
>assigns risk, and puts the plan to work. Good luck Jim, I hope
>the market goes up to exactly 1067 and Dell touches 71 1/4.
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>
>----------
>From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: DELL
>Date: Thursday, September 10, 1998 4:01 PM
>
>ALL,
> Tomorrow could be a very interesting market. I see
>potential for a big move either way, but think the DJIA 7500
>level will hold. If we look like we are getting an up move, I'm
>going to open a fairly large (for me) long trading position in
>DELL. DELL bounced off the bottom of its Intermediate Term Up
>Trend Channel late this afternoon and could get a trading move
>to the top which is at 71. I'll set the stop at 53 3/4.
>
>Jim
>
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