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<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Dick</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>On
almost every option trade I made, I lost money on.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=300280722-09091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On
Behalf Of</B> Dick Simmons<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 08, 1998 7:53
PM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B>
Methodologies<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I see where you are coming from. Sorry I
made an incorrect assumption.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I am opposite to you, I try for the long
term trade and only in options so that I can withstand the whipsaws ( the
ones you make money out of). I tried short term trading at the beginning and
lost a bundle on pure futures - not my style of trading.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Wednesday, 9 September 1998 8:38<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Dick</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>On the contrary, our system is definitely not a trend type
system. Our worst years in the last 16 years was 1995, I think
(would have to look it up), where it was up 100%. We are
contrarian traders. Strictly short term. This is the first
time we've been out of a market this long in 16 years. If a move
goes against us, we get stopped out and never trade in that same
direction again. We wait for the opposite signal. The reason
is that we play probabilities. We know that we're going to be
right 75% of the time (at least over the last 16
years).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>If we get stopped out because the market has gone x points
against us, we know that the odds are that we will lose money on that
trade and not to chase it. Since we were wrong on the direction of
that trade, we assume that all following signals in that same direction
will be wrong. We were stopped out of a long position in one of
the giant market swings on 7/23. We did have a sell signal,
however our system requires something we call a contrary. That's a
measure of the strength of the price move that day. So for us to
go short (remember we're contrarians), we need an up day, either the day
of the signal or the previous day. The contrary we got was too
high and therefore we couldn't go short and needed to wait. We're
still waiting <G>.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Arial size=2>Just didn't want to leave the impression that we have
a bull or trend following system. Our system is based upon daily
price movement.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Emotionally, I am probably more comfortable as a bear. But
that's my personality. Regardless, we just trade our signals and
don't really care about the direction, just that we get a certain amount
of activity. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2> </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Dick
Simmons<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 08, 1998 1:09
AM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:
Weekly Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi John,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The only indicator that will work in
bull trends, bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look
at poor old Guy, has a great system for bull markets but it is not
working at present.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Cycles go on and on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>John Hunter <<A
href="mailto:jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx";>jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your
confusion is shared by many I believe, certainly by
myself. I have tried to address it in the past on
this forum with no positive outcome and you have prompted me to
try once again. To me the answer to this question is the most
important reason why anyone would use Metastock. Take your own
system, as I have come to understand it from your many very
informative postings. When you see a breakout from a tend
occurring what indicator or combination of indicators could be
used to reliably predictive that the trend has ended and the
stock/commodity price will move in a new direction. I have noted
you say in a number of postings that you are forced to wait for
sufficient information (ie days of trading) to come in before
you can redraw the new price direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of
indicators, and different combinations of indicators, with the
object of finding a system that will reliably signal that and
end to the current trend is about to come to an end. For example
the daily DOW chart had a stochastic crossover, indicating a
sell, in late July and this was confirmed by a moving average
crossover shortly after this. (These can be viewed from the
<BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A>
page.) Now I know it is not going to be that easy and so your
confusion and my question to the group. What indicators are
useful in predicting the end of a trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We
got the drop that I was expecting this week, but now I'm
confused. Are we in the process of completing a
typical four month bull market 20% correction or is this the
start of a bear market? I was definitely bearish last
week as all the indices were breaking intermediate and long
term up trends which confirmed a down trend was in
process. That's still the same this week, but I'm
getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns
would support the bear market theory. Since I'm
uncertain, my options at this point are to either do nothing
or since I'm all cash except for my WCOM put options, I
could nibble in both directions. Nibbling is more fun
and I have the large cash position for a cushion, so that's
what I'm going to do <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT
size=2></FONT><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term
trend reversal pattern. I constructed a standard
deviation Short Term Down Trend Channel (STDTC) with the
deviation set at 2 from the 8/19/98 high to the 9/1/98 low
and extended it to the right. The top of the STDTC is
at 30 1/2 and the bottom of the channel can't be reached
since it is below zero. The fundamentals are what you
would expect of an internet stock, 229% sales growth, but
negative earnings. It could do great in a bull market,
but should get killed in a bear market.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Sep 09 21:09:09 1998
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From: "Guy Tann" <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: Murray Math Trading System
Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 15:32:04 -0700
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Culver City! That's around the corner from me. Just a few miles away.
Maybe I need to run over and wait in line. Do you want me to snag a couple
of tickets for you as well <G>?
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Christian Baude
> Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 1998 7:41 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Murray Math Trading System
>
>
> On Tue, 8 Sep 1998 18:31:50 -0700, you wrote:
>
> <snip>
> Some of you may remember a previous e-mail correspondent in our group.
> I find it amusing that a T. Henning Murray is scheduled to give a talk
> about his product Wednesday, September 9, 1998 at Ramada Plaza Hotel
> in Culver City CA. It sounds as if this may the same person that used
> to correspond with this group.
> <snip>
>
> >From the long thread by Murray, I think he must be a person with a
> fantastic sense of humor.
>
> His theories, probably fit in with that of the "mad potter of Biloxi".
> It will take another 100 years for someone to appreciate him. That is
> always a problem with avant-guarde or backward people. I just don't
> know where he fit in. <vbg>
>
> -= Chris ß =-
>
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