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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi Guy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I see where you are coming from. Sorry I made an
incorrect assumption.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I am opposite to you, I try for the long term
trade and only in options so that I can withstand the whipsaws ( the ones you
make money out of). I tried short term trading at the beginning and lost a
bundle on pure futures - not my style of trading.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original Message-----</B><BR><B>From:
</B>Guy Tann <<A
href="mailto:grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx";>grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To: </B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Wednesday, 9 September 1998 8:38<BR><B>Subject: </B>RE: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Dick</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>On
the contrary, our system is definitely not a trend type system. Our
worst years in the last 16 years was 1995, I think (would have to look it
up), where it was up 100%. We are contrarian traders. Strictly
short term. This is the first time we've been out of a market this
long in 16 years. If a move goes against us, we get stopped out and
never trade in that same direction again. We wait for the opposite
signal. The reason is that we play probabilities. We know that
we're going to be right 75% of the time (at least over the last 16
years).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2>If
we get stopped out because the market has gone x points against us, we know
that the odds are that we will lose money on that trade and not to chase
it. Since we were wrong on the direction of that trade, we assume that
all following signals in that same direction will be wrong. We were
stopped out of a long position in one of the giant market swings on
7/23. We did have a sell signal, however our system requires something
we call a contrary. That's a measure of the strength of the price move
that day. So for us to go short (remember we're contrarians), we need
an up day, either the day of the signal or the previous day. The
contrary we got was too high and therefore we couldn't go short and needed
to wait. We're still waiting <G>.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff
face=Arial size=2>Just didn't want to leave the impression that we have a
bull or trend following system. Our system is based upon daily price
movement.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Emotionally, I am probably more comfortable as a bear. But
that's my personality. Regardless, we just trade our signals and don't
really care about the direction, just that we get a certain amount of
activity. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Regards</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>Guy</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=80544620-08091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2> </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]<B>On Behalf Of</B> Dick
Simmons<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, September 08, 1998 1:09
AM<BR><B>To:</B> metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Hi John,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The only indicator that will work in
bull trends, bear trends and consolidations is that of cycles. Look at
poor old Guy, has a great system for bull markets but it is not working
at present.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Cycles go on and on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Dick.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>John Hunter <<A
href="mailto:jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx";>jhunter@xxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B><A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>
<<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Tuesday, 8 September 1998 1:31<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2>Your confusion
is shared by many I believe, certainly by myself. I have tried
to address it in the past on this forum with no positive
outcome and you have prompted me to try once again. To me the answer
to this question is the most important reason why anyone would use
Metastock. Take your own system, as I have come to understand it
from your many very informative postings. When you see a breakout
from a tend occurring what indicator or combination of indicators
could be used to reliably predictive that the trend has ended and
the stock/commodity price will move in a new direction. I have noted
you say in a number of postings that you are forced to wait for
sufficient information (ie days of trading) to come in before you
can redraw the new price direction.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have played around with a number of indicators,
and different combinations of indicators, with the object of finding
a system that will reliably signal that and end to the current trend
is about to come to an end. For example the daily DOW chart had a
stochastic crossover, indicating a sell, in late July and this was
confirmed by a moving average crossover shortly after this. (These
can be viewed from the <BR><A
href="http://www.barchart.com";>http://www.barchart.com</A>
page.) Now I know it is not going to be that easy and so your
confusion and my question to the group. What indicators are useful
in predicting the end of a trend?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>JH<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial
size=2><B></B></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><B>-----Original
Message-----</B><BR><B>From: </B>Jim Greening <<A
href="mailto:JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>To:
</B>Metastock <<A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR><B>Date:
</B>Sunday, 6 September 1998 4:42<BR><B>Subject: </B>Weekly
Pick<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 solid 2px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px"></FONT>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> We got
the drop that I was expecting this week, but now I'm
confused. Are we in the process of completing a typical
four month bull market 20% correction or is this the start of a
bear market? I was definitely bearish last week as all the
indices were breaking intermediate and long term up trends which
confirmed a down trend was in process. That's still the
same this week, but I'm getting mixed signals.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip..........snip............snip....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>The internet stocks patterns
would support the bear market theory. Since I'm uncertain,
my options at this point are to either do nothing or since I'm
all cash except for my WCOM put options, I could nibble in both
directions. Nibbling is more fun and I have the large cash
position for a cushion, so that's what I'm going to do
<G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT><FONT size=2></FONT><FONT
color=#000000
size=2>......snip..........snip...........snip..........snip......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>To me this looks like a typical long term
trend reversal pattern. I constructed a standard deviation
Short Term Down Trend Channel (STDTC) with the deviation set at
2 from the 8/19/98 high to the 9/1/98 low and extended it to the
right. The top of the STDTC is at 30 1/2 and the bottom of
the channel can't be reached since it is below zero. The
fundamentals are what you would expect of an internet stock,
229% sales growth, but negative earnings. It could do
great in a bull market, but should get killed in a bear
market. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Harley
Hmmm I'm not familiar with the term sort interest. Perhaps it's a stock term.
I am more familiar with futures. OI refers to Open Interest for a market.
Perhaps they are the same term used in different markets.
Chris
In a message dated 9/8/98 1:00:21 PM Eastern Daylight Time, meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx
writes:
> Chris,
>
> I believe you mean short interest not OI. If short interest was available
> for that
> short period of time then what you are suggesting would give a person
> information
> about how much short covering took place.
>
> Harley
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