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Steve
Was out all day running errands, etc. so didn't get much done. Looking at
my chart for SPU, I look for an upside resistance of 1090 for this week.
I'm thinking that I might put on some out of the money puts if we get in
that area, as I feel we have more to go on the downside.
Will look at some of our numbers to see if I can now come up with some
forecasts. We use some numbers, ratios, as follows:
First we find (identify) the first leg down (in this case). Let's say that
the market drops 150 points. We then calculate or forecast the move as
follows (I think as I'm going from memory and didn't really look it up).
First leg is 7/5 or 1.40 x 150 = 210.00 points. So if we started at 9000,
for example, we would target our first downward objective as 9000 - 210.00 =
8790.00.
Next leg would be 7/4 or 1.75 x 150 = 262.50 points. That would give us a
target of 8737.50. Next leg is 7/3 or 2.33 or 350 points down (8650). The
'final' leg would be 7/2 or 3.50 x 150 = 525 for a target of 8475.
Someone once told me these numbers are sort of Elliot Wave numbers, but they
are ratios we developed and used for the last 40 to 50 years and since we
never really looked at Elliot Waves, I can't have no idea anyway.
Now I have to look at the current S&P chart and try to come up with some
numbers. When done, and after reviewing them with the old man, I'll let you
know what we come up with. You might want to try it on your own. Picking
your starting point and first leg can be an art. Sometimes it takes several
tries <G>.
Regards
Guy
The next leg, we would use 7/3
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Tuesday, September 01, 1998 7:16 AM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Globex S&P
>
>
> Guy,
>
> I would like to be the "fly on the wall" when you conference
> your dad and brother. You guys sure have it wired in (it must
> be that early diet of Hungarian blood sausage...it nourishes the
> brain). Not necessarily from this list, but I'm hearing from a
> lot of people who insisted that we would "bounce" last
> week...that we will now bounce off this little free fall
> (nothing like being emotionally attached to a position). I
> think you're right on with the next stop at around 7200 - 7400
> (my work produces 7320 and then a trip to 6970). Remember,
> we're just warming up for the big one. Most major implosions
> happen 55 days (fib #) after the first snap. If that's the
> case, two weeks from now we'll all be complaining about not
> selling this current level. Look for resistance in the DJU at
> around 76.80 - 77.00.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Globex S&P
> > Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 9:04 PM
> >
> > Al
> >
> > Last I looked, it was up 17.50 at around 8PM PST (or whatever
> time we're on
> > here in LaLa land <G>.
> >
> > We might get a dead analyst bounce here. Went back and looked
> at the RSI
> > for 1987. Went down to 9! We're currently at 21. Still have
> to hit 17 and
> > then 9 to match what happened in 1987. Our first target is
> still 7200-7400
> > range. Will work on and post our calcs in terms of where this
> might go.
> > There could be a retracement of up to 60%, but I think the
> direction is
> > still down, at least for now.
> >
> > Like that other post here, that if we assume this bull move
> started in 1982
> > (makes sense to me), we can drop to 5500 (40% retracement) and
> still be in a
> > long term bull move up.
> >
> > I'm not looking for a housing collapse until next year. Look
> back... 1979 -
> > 1989 - 1999???
> >
> > As a good friend says, the real estate market is crazy here in
> So. Cal.
> > They are currently building 5 $3MM spec houses in our little
> town. My
> > realtor buddy just sold a home in East Manhattan for
> $1,020,000. A regular
> > home on a regular lot. Nothing special. It might have had
> 4,000 sq. feet.
> > A home on the strand just sold for $5.2mm. Hardly hit the
> market. Sign
> > went up and it was sold in 5 days.
> >
> > Is this what we have to look forward to?
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> >
> > Guy
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Al
> Taglavore
> > > Sent: Monday, August 31, 1998 9:32 PM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Globex S&P
> > >
> > >
> > > Are we aware that the S&P is trading up 1240 on Globex at
> 9:25? This is
> > > a strong move after the pasting it took today. "V" bottom
> ala '87?
> > > Comments?
> > >
> > > Al Taglavore
> > >
>
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