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Steve,
Thanks for your very helpful posts to the list, esp the disclosure of your
trading system for lumber.
What printed from your lumber chart on my two fingered laser, did not seem
to add up; There was a buy arrow on about 16th July, but no sell arrow as
there should have been a couple of days later when your forecast oscillator
crossed the 1.1 line. Perhaps I am reading it wrong. The next sell arrow
did not show until end of July.
The system was short, the price rose, yet your equity line headed north!
It was short until the end of the month according to the oscillator. I am
certainly scratching my thick head!
Also, could you tell us what typical parameters you might use to start with
on this oscillator when used with shares, (stocks to you).
Kind regards,
Simon Roberts England (Europe)
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> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
> Date: 21 August 1998 21:10
>
> John,
>
> Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
> contribute and have always been forthright with their
> approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of an
> amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio in
> these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
> approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather subjective).
> Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus remains
> the futures market.
>
> I agree 100% that:
>
> a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
> that have contacted me directly have found that I hold nothing
> as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
> few would use it as intended)
> b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
> recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public" with
> his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15 equity
> positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
> these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some kind
> of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
>
> Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
> with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
> recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
> each others positions; then in a short period of time we can all
> see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
> participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
> about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
> month remark).
>
> Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
> technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
> becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the hard
> part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
> have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy. It's
> too discretionary."
>
> I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is totally
> objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
> that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
> interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
> best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
> "this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative comments
> until you "bare your own souls" or can find something inherently
> wrong with this mechanical approach.
>
> The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and sells
> when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
> Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the linear
> regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
> "zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs is
> the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
> different commodities, but with different variables for the
> length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger" points
> (I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
> Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
> commission to allow for slippage).
>
> So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me! I'm
> willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
>
> Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
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