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FWIW
Thanks Brat, for your trading experiences explained in one of your previous
emails to the MetstockList(from that, knowing too that you are a List-member,
you can skip the rest of this very informative message wich I receive regularly).
By the way, last hammer in the Dow, I'm told that it wasn't a true TRUE hammer,
knowing you to be the candlestick expert, can you occaisionally give the List
an explanation on these Candlestick-patterns & usage.
Your programs, being candlestick based, are a valid adittion to MS.
Also good candlestick reference: Steve Nieson's book on Candlesticks.
Regards,
Ton Maas
Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx
-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: Brad Matheny <Bmatheny@xxxxxxxx>
Aan: Recipient list suppressed <Recipient list suppressed>
Datum: zondag 23 augustus 1998 23:16
Onderwerp: ME E-Zine #13, August 23, 1998
>Disclaimer
>This document is provided to you ONLY as a means to support and promote the
>community of individuals using products offered by Matheny Enterprises.
>Matheny Enterprises makes no claims or guarantees that the information
>herein is accurate or can be used by any recipient for the purposes of
>investing in any of the worlds financial instruments. The reader, and any
>subsequent recipient, hereby agrees to hold Matheny Enterprises, it’s
>agents, employees, owners and associates, harmless from any claims or
>comments made herein. This document is provided to you as a source of
>information and a means of technical support and services offered by
>Matheny Enterprises. Any information contained here in is reported to the
>best of our abilities and factual based on information we obtain from
>reliable sources or from our own research. Matheny Enterprises, in no way,
>promotes or suggests that individuals should trade futures, commodities,
>mutual funds, bonds or any of the world’s financial instruments without a
>proper knowledge of the risk involved in such trades or proper individual
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>and conditions stated above and therefore agree to forever hold Matheny
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>any claims or comments made herein.
>
>If you consider this message “SPAM”, sorry. I’m trying to keep up with my
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>
>Matheny Enterprises (ME) Investor E-zine
>Issue 01 - Volume 13
>August 23, 1998
>Questions or Comments : <Bmatheny@xxxxxxxx>
>All Rights Reserved
>Mastheny Enterprises Web Site : <http://www.ment.com>
>----[ Matheny Enterprises News & Comments ]---------------------------
>Special 15% Discount if you subscribe before August 31, 1998!
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>31, 1998.
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>
>----[ The Markets ]----------------------------------------------
>The DOW, the S&P 500 and others
>
>This “Weekly” E-zine has become a bi-Monthly E-zine (or whenever I decide
>to write about the markets). The interesting thing about the markets
>lately is that my comments seem to hold true for more than 1 week.
>Therefore, I don’t need to continue stating that the market is *this* or
>*that*. I know that all of you will understand when I tell you that the
>type of analysis I provide within this E-zine is not investment advice.
>I’m soliciting a response from the readers about the PFP software
>applications and the comments that I’m making herein. Please try to send
>me your comments and use the resources below to communicate between one
>another.
>
>** Chat Room & Message Board - http://www.ment.com/frames/sw1.html
>
>Yesterday, I received a call from one of my newest clients where he began
>asking questions about the markets and the PFP software applications. We
>discussed many hypothetical trading scenarios. The most interesting part
>of our discussion was my favorite “Trees & Forests” theory. I have been
>following the markets for over 9 years now and have discussed trading with
>many different people. It seems that most people know what they want to
>accomplish, yet really don’t know how to do it. They know what their
>risk/reward parameters are and how they would like to trade, but most of
>the time these investors need to adjust their *optimum* style to the
>markets activity.
>
>The markets don’t react exactly like most investors want, otherwise we
>would all be rich and investing would be easy. My “Trees & Forests” theory
>tries to put this problem into perspective for all investors. Once the
>investors have a solid understanding of this theory, they can apply it to
>their trading and (hopefully) increase their bottom line results.
>
>Theory #1 (The Trees) - “Can’t see the forest through the trees”
>Assume you are standing in the middle of a forest of thick trees. You
>don’t know where you are going because you can’t even see the sun or the
>moon. Thus you are wandering about the trees trying to find your way out.
>
>This is the theory of the “Trees”. If you concentrate your analysis
>efforts on the extreme short term trend, you will continually find yourself
>in the middle of the “Trees”. You will be able to see only a short
>distance in front of you and will likely stay *lost* for a long time.
>
>Theory #2 (The Forest) - “Can’t see the trees through the forest”
>Now assume you are standing on a hill overlooking the forest. You can see
>the perimeters of the forest, the clearings, the roads leading in and out
>of the forest very clearly. You can clearly find a path through the trees
>by identifying “landmarks” and plan your adventure through the trees.
>
>This is the theory of the “Forest”. If you concentrate some of your
>analysis efforts on the longer term charts, you will likely be able to see
>more of the markets “overall” direction and trend, plan your trading attack
>on the market and then dive into the “trees” knowing what to expect
>throughout your adventure.
>
>Not all traders need to learn these techniques, just the ones who intend to
>continually profit from trading. I can’t stress enough how important these
>techniques are. I continually try to show my users why this is one of the
>most important techniques in investing. Let me give you a few examples...
>
>In April of this year, my ME-Ezine announced that I expected the DOW to
>trade within a specific range and stay below 9200. The DOW did pretty much
>exactly what I expected. How and where did I get this information?? By
>combining some different investment techniques with a solid understanding
>of the markets.
>
>On July 10th I mentioned that I believed the DOW was attempting another
>potential rally above the 9200 level. I also mentioned that I expected
>this rally to fail and investors should be very cautions. The DOW
>attempted a move above the 9300 level, then failed and continues to
>sell-off to today’s levels. What did I know that other investors did not
>know - nothing. I read the newspapers (on paper and on the net). I
>believe my success in the DOW can be attributed to the fact that I keep
>looking at different perspectives of the markets.
>
>I few issues ago in this E-zine we discussed Support and Resistance. These
>are very important aspects of chart analysis. Today I would like to
>discuss trend - another important aspect of chart analysis...
>
>Lets assume we are looking at a daily chart of any market and are having
>difficulty identifying a profitable trading solution. Lets also assume
>that this chart is forming a congestion bottom after a down trend. What
>should we do now???
>
>LOOK AT A WEEKLY CHART. The weekly chart will likely show you when and
>where the market will attempt to rally or continue its sell-off. Entering
>a position simply because the chart is forming a congestion bottom is
>rather foolish. Some investors may choose to do this and wait for a rally.
> It makes more sense to wait for the rally to begin to form, confirm the
>rally with the weekly chart and a breakout of resistance, then time your
>entry to maximize your profit potential. Here is an example of how to do
>this....
>
>Most of the time when a market begins a new trend, it will start the trend
>with what I call an “impulse wave”. The impulse wave is a sharp climb or
>sell-off that lasts only a short period of time. The impulse wave will
>also *typically* generate a buy signal on the daily chart and the weekly
>chart. After the impulse wave, some of the short term investors will pull
>profits and cause the market to correct a bit (sometimes 20% to 50%). This
>is natural.
>
>Now is when the strategic investor will look to enter the market. We’ve
>seen a new bullish trend form. We’ve seen a buy signal on the daily chart
>and the weekly chart. We can safely assume that market will continue
>higher and can identify potential resistance levels where the market may
>fail to continue to rally in the future. Do we want to try to sell a
>bullish trending market?? - NO. Do we want to buy a bullish trending
>market?? - YES!! When does a strategic investor enter a long position in
>this market??
>
>I’ve found the best solution to this question is...
>1. Use the candlesticks on a daily candlestick chart to help to identify
>the end of the correction after the “impulse wave”.
>2. Use the TC/BR and ASL breakout systems to identify when the market
>begins to rally again.
>3. Buy at the first sign of a confirmed rally beginning again. Who cares
>if you give up a little bit at the beginning. By selecting your entry
>point carefully, investors can attempt to gain immediate profits from the
>trade. Buying too soon may cause investors to get stopped out with losses.
> Buying too late may cause investors to loose money through a correction.
>Timed buying will likely result in immediate profits because the market is
>likely to rally for a few days after we enter our position.
>
>This is not “Rocket Science” stuff. I know that nearly everyone reading
>this can understand what I’m trying to say.
>
>OK. Now we are in a long position in the market and what do we do? It is
>real simple - follow the weekly chart for signs of weakness in the market.
>Also the weekly chart provides such a clear picture of the markets MAJOR
>support and resistance that most investors can just find tops and bottoms
>and identify these points as support and resistance. Follow the weekly
>chart and until the weekly chart shows investors that the trend may
>reverse, assume that the trend is bullish and the market will continue to
>go up.
>
>On the daily chart, continue to assume that the market will go up and time
>your entry and exit points. If you know the market is in a bullish trend,
>why try to sell the market??? There is no reason to sell a bullish
>trending market. If your trading style is more short term, enter positions
>when the market begins another rally and sell as soon as the market shows
>that it may correct. Use a trailing stop level to protect your investment
>and continue to follow the weekly chart so that you don’t loose perspective
>of the market’s overall trend.
>
>What I’m trying to show my readers in this issues of the ME E-zine is that
>there is no *magical* technique in investing properly - just a bunch of
>“common sense”. Sometimes I see people pushing some techniques that are so
>far fetched and “out there” that I don’t know what they are doing. Think
>about how simple most things are. Your computer is nothing but a bunch of
>ON/OFF switches, your car is nothing but a combustion engine and alot of
>gears, your phone is nothing but a speaker, microphone and some buttons
>connected to a copper wire. Don’t try to make investing harder than it
>really is.
>
>The more aggressive you attempt to trade, the greater your chance of loss
>becomes. Do you want to increase your chance of loss or reduce your chance
>of loss??
>
>The DOW... What can I say but “Bearish”. I said it two weeks ago and I’ll
>say it again.
>
>Yes, there will be a point where the Dow finds a bottom and attempts
>another rally. The test below 9400 on Friday shows me that the DOW is not
>finished yet. Most of you know I can’t issue direct trading signals in
>this E-zine so look at a weekly chart of the DOW and tell me where you
>think it is going?? Then look at a weekly chart of your favorite equity or
>futures contract and do the same analysis. If you are using a charting
>tool (like my PFP software applications) try to apply the theories I
>discussed herein and see how well they would have worked for you. If you
>find validity in my comments, tell me what you think. If not, the next
>issue of the ME E-zine will discuss other techniques.
>
>Good Trading.
>
>
>
>-----------[ Last Issues Comments
>]------------------------------------------------------
>Well well, what do I say after today’s DOW close. Bearish???
>
>The pressures are being felt from all sides at this point I think. The US
>is still a very strong player in the worlds markets, yet we are
>experiencing a solid “sell off” from that last attempt above 9200. Many of
>the leading market technicians are turning “Bearish” and causing some
>interesting debates. The news from Asia is also not helping things, but I
>would think it is not the physical cause of things here. Yea... the
>pressure is being felt over here, but I believe we are just experiencing
>the normal reactionary tactic of the markets.
>
>The whole perspective of the “worlds markets” and how they affect each
>other is becoming much more interesting. It is looking like a technicians
>game. We can’t expect the markets to *just* continue going up.. Let’s
>continue with some relevant PFP teaching.
>
>Support and Resistance - most people know what they are, but can they use it??
>
>Look at a current Dow Jones candlestick chart then continue (please).
>
>The most simple example is to think of floors and ceilings within a chart.
>Start by looking for major peeks and valleys in the chart. The high or low
>at those levels can be defined as support and resistance. Now look a
>little further and find the most recent download & upward sloping support
>and resistance levels are. Look for a series of higher or lower peeks and
>valleys within the chart.
>
>If you can imagine these types of lines on a chart, you’re ready to take it
>to the next level...
>
>These are my “best guesses” as to the current support and resistance lines
>are for the DOW. If anyone would like to suggest additional levels or
>thinks differently, then just continue at your own risk.
>
>Support
>8623. on 6/15/98 (broken)
>8684. on 6/19/98 (broken)
>8165. on 2/4/98
>8000. (Downward S)
>7875. (Upward S)
>
>Resistance
>8880. (Downward R)
>
>There are some minor support levels from fractal bottom formations at
>8495 on 3/4/98
>8318 on 2/20/98
>
>I think you can see how support and resistance can play a vital role in
>understanding just one portion of the chart. What would you expect the
>market to do tomorrow?
>
>The pressure is on. Investors and members, read the charts. By now, if
>you have been using the PFP software, you’ve experienced almost all of it’s
>features. This tool you have been using is designed to take *some* of the
>guess work out of it by showing you how candlesticks, technical theory and
>training, as well as hundreds of price patterns fill the gap.
>
>I can’t come out and actually tell you what I think the market is going to
>do. I might get sued. I intend to help teach you to learn as I have.
>
>Where will it go from here. It’s in a bearish trend. It just broke recent
>support. The candlesticks mentioned something about a sell potential on
>the 9/20 and 8/3. The biggest question now is where will it stop??
>Anywhere it wants.
>
>After looking at some recent charts and certain sectors what strikes me is
>that there still is a lot of downside play that could eventually befall
>some of the recent *favorite* issues (stocks). It really is a “technicians
>game”. The price moves have been coming fast & furious, so play it safe
>with a stop or mental exit level. Try not to open yourself up to too much
>risk when you can get out and look for a better trade.
>
>As I stated earlier in this message, the pressures are coming from all
>sides and the US market is going to adjust with the rest of them. Where
>and when everything falls back into sync is anyone’s guess. All traders
>look for that *Perfect Chart* where one can trade to heaven. For some, its
>just a bullish trend, for others a bearish one. Still others look for
>defined medium term trending charts. Ones that move up and down
>consistently with sizeable moves made over time.
>
>Tune your skills and PLEASE send me some feedback. I feel sometimes like
>I’m talking to a wall. Any comments or suggestions are appreciated.
>---------------------------[ End of Last Issues Comments
>]--------------------------------
>
>-----------------[ It’s Your Money
>]-------------------------------------------------
>Use your best judgement and research your investments. Visit the web site
>of the exchanges before you invest directly within another country and
>understand the laws. Remember, it’s your money.
>
>For more information about the Asian markets and the resources available to
>you, visit our RESOURCES page and visit “The STAR” newspaper on-line. They
>include daily closing prices for most of the Asian markets and other
>informative resources.
>CLICK HERE TO VISIT : http://www.ment.com/frames/rsc.html
>
>--------------[ Links and other FREE things
>]------------------------------------------
>
>Magazines and Publications
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>Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine : http://www.traders.com
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>Traders Catalog & Resource Guide : http://www.moneymentor.com
>
>Historical Data Providers
>Prophet Data Services : http://www.prophetdata.com
>Primate Data Services : http://www.primate.com
>Worden Brothers (TC2000) : http://www.TC2000.com
>Alpha Microsystems : http://www.Stockvue.com
>QUOTE.COM : http://www.quote.com
>FutureLink : http://www.FutureLink.com
>
>ON-Line Futures Trading
>First American Discount Corp : http://www.fadc.com
>Vantage Commodity Corp : http://www.vantagecorp.com
>
>Trading Theory & Educational Sites
>Traders Talk : http://www.tradertalk.com
>
>FREE Things
>Alpha Microsystems STOCKVUE software : http://www.Stockvue.com
>Dr. Websters Amazing Free Stuff : http://www.thefreesite.com
>
>Pattern Forecaster Plus V1.0 <http://www.ment.com/frames/meform.html>
>Just type in your name and e-mail address, then go get it.
>FREE for 45 days.
>
>
>Brad Matheny
>Matheny Enterprises - Dana Point, Ca 92629 USA
>(949) 240-6977 Phone - (949) 248-8747 Fax
><http://www.ment.com>
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