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Fw: ME E-Zine #13, August 23, 1998



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

FWIW

Thanks Brat, for your trading experiences explained in one of your previous
emails to the MetstockList(from that, knowing too that you are a List-member,
you can skip the rest of this very informative message wich I receive regularly).

By the way, last hammer in the Dow, I'm told that it wasn't a true TRUE hammer,
knowing you to be the candlestick expert, can you occaisionally give the List
an explanation on these Candlestick-patterns & usage.
Your programs, being candlestick based, are a valid adittion to MS.

Also good candlestick reference: Steve Nieson's book on Candlesticks.

Regards,
Ton Maas
Ms-IRB@xxxxxxxxx


-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
Van: Brad Matheny <Bmatheny@xxxxxxxx>
Aan: Recipient list suppressed <Recipient list suppressed>
Datum: zondag 23 augustus 1998 23:16
Onderwerp: ME E-Zine #13, August 23, 1998


>Disclaimer
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>Matheny Enterprises makes no claims or guarantees that the information
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>Matheny Enterprises (ME) Investor E-zine
>Issue 01 - Volume 13
>August 23, 1998
>Questions or Comments : <Bmatheny@xxxxxxxx>
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>----[ Matheny Enterprises News & Comments ]---------------------------
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>----[ The Markets ]----------------------------------------------
>The DOW, the S&P 500 and others
>
>This “Weekly” E-zine has become a bi-Monthly E-zine (or whenever I decide
>to write about the markets).  The interesting thing about the markets
>lately is that my comments seem to hold true for more than 1 week.
>Therefore, I don’t need to continue stating that the market is *this* or
>*that*.  I know that all of you will understand when I tell you that the
>type of analysis I provide within this E-zine is not investment advice.
>I’m soliciting a response from the readers about the PFP software
>applications and the comments that I’m making herein.  Please try to send
>me your comments and use the resources below to communicate between one
>another.
>
>** Chat Room & Message Board  -  http://www.ment.com/frames/sw1.html
>
>Yesterday, I received a call from one of my newest clients where he began
>asking questions about the markets and the PFP software applications.  We
>discussed many hypothetical trading scenarios.  The most interesting part
>of our discussion was my favorite “Trees & Forests” theory.  I have been
>following the markets for over 9 years now and have discussed trading with
>many different people.  It seems that most people know what they want to
>accomplish, yet really don’t know how to do it.  They know what their
>risk/reward parameters are and how they would like to trade, but most of
>the time these investors need to adjust their *optimum* style to the
>markets activity.
>
>The markets don’t react exactly like most investors want, otherwise we
>would all be rich and investing would be easy.  My “Trees & Forests” theory
>tries to put this problem into perspective for all investors.  Once the
>investors have a solid understanding of this theory, they can apply it to
>their trading and (hopefully) increase their bottom line results.
>
>Theory #1 (The Trees) - “Can’t see the forest through the trees”
>Assume you are standing in the middle of a forest of thick trees.  You
>don’t know where you are going because you can’t even see the sun or the
>moon.  Thus you are wandering about the trees trying to find your way out.
>
>This is the theory of the “Trees”.  If you concentrate your analysis
>efforts on the extreme short term trend, you will continually find yourself
>in the middle of the “Trees”.  You will be able to see only a short
>distance in front of you and will likely stay *lost* for a long time.
>
>Theory #2 (The Forest) - “Can’t see the trees through the forest”
>Now assume you are standing on a hill overlooking the forest.  You can see
>the perimeters of the forest, the clearings, the roads leading in and out
>of the forest very clearly.  You can clearly find a path through the trees
>by identifying “landmarks” and plan your adventure through the trees.
>
>This is the theory of the “Forest”.  If you concentrate some of your
>analysis efforts on the longer term charts, you will likely be able to see
>more of the markets “overall” direction and trend, plan your trading attack
>on the market and then dive into the “trees” knowing what to expect
>throughout your adventure.
>
>Not all traders need to learn these techniques, just the ones who intend to
>continually profit from trading.  I can’t stress enough how important these
>techniques are.  I continually try to show my users why this is one of the
>most important techniques in investing.  Let me give you a few examples...
>
>In April of this year, my ME-Ezine announced that I expected the DOW to
>trade within a specific range and stay below 9200.  The DOW did pretty much
>exactly what I expected. How and where did I get this information??  By
>combining some different investment techniques with a solid understanding
>of the markets.
>
>On July 10th I mentioned that I believed the DOW was attempting another
>potential rally above the 9200 level.  I also mentioned that I expected
>this rally to fail and investors should be very cautions.  The DOW
>attempted a move above the 9300 level, then failed and continues to
>sell-off to today’s levels.  What did I know that other investors did not
>know - nothing.  I read the newspapers (on paper and on the net).  I
>believe my success in the DOW can be attributed to the fact that I keep
>looking at different perspectives of the markets.
>
>I few issues ago in this E-zine we discussed Support and Resistance.  These
>are very important aspects of chart analysis.  Today I would like to
>discuss trend - another important aspect of chart analysis...
>
>Lets assume we are looking at a daily chart of any market and are having
>difficulty identifying a profitable trading solution.  Lets also assume
>that this chart is forming a congestion bottom after a down trend.  What
>should we do now???
>
>LOOK AT A WEEKLY CHART.  The weekly chart will likely show you when and
>where the market will attempt to rally or continue its sell-off.  Entering
>a position simply because the chart is forming a congestion bottom is
>rather foolish.  Some investors may choose to do this and wait for a rally.
> It makes more sense to wait for the rally to begin to form, confirm the
>rally with the weekly chart and a breakout of resistance, then time your
>entry to maximize your profit potential.  Here is an example of how to do
>this....
>
>Most of the time when a market begins a new trend, it will start the trend
>with what I call an “impulse wave”.  The impulse wave is a sharp climb or
>sell-off that lasts only a short period of time.  The impulse wave will
>also *typically* generate a buy signal on the daily chart and the weekly
>chart.  After the impulse wave, some of the short term investors will pull
>profits and cause the market to correct a bit (sometimes 20% to 50%).  This
>is natural.
>
>Now is when the strategic investor will look to enter the market.  We’ve
>seen a new bullish trend form.  We’ve seen a buy signal on the daily chart
>and the weekly chart.  We can safely assume that market will continue
>higher and can identify potential resistance levels where the market may
>fail to continue to rally in the future.  Do we want to try to sell a
>bullish trending market?? - NO.  Do we want to buy a bullish trending
>market?? - YES!! When does a strategic investor enter a long position in
>this market??
>
>I’ve found the best solution to this question is...
>1. Use the candlesticks on a daily candlestick chart to help to identify
>the end of the correction after the “impulse wave”.
>2. Use the TC/BR and ASL breakout systems to identify when the market
>begins to rally again.
>3. Buy at the first sign of a confirmed rally beginning again.  Who cares
>if you give up a little bit at the beginning.  By selecting your entry
>point carefully, investors can attempt to gain immediate profits from the
>trade.  Buying too soon may cause investors to get stopped out with losses.
> Buying too late may cause investors to loose money through a correction.
>Timed buying will likely result in immediate profits because the market is
>likely to rally for a few days after we enter our position.
>
>This is not “Rocket Science” stuff.  I know that nearly everyone reading
>this can understand what I’m trying to say.
>
>OK.  Now we are in a long position in the market and what do we do?  It is
>real simple - follow the weekly chart for signs of weakness in the market.
>Also the weekly chart provides such a clear picture of the markets MAJOR
>support and resistance that most investors can just find tops and bottoms
>and identify these points as support and resistance.  Follow the weekly
>chart and until the weekly chart shows investors that the trend may
>reverse, assume that the trend is bullish and the market will continue to
>go up.
>
>On the daily chart, continue to assume that the market will go up and time
>your entry and exit points.  If you know the market is in a bullish trend,
>why try to sell the market???  There is no reason to sell a bullish
>trending market.  If your trading style is more short term, enter positions
>when the market begins another rally and sell as soon as the market shows
>that it may correct.  Use a trailing stop level to protect your investment
>and continue to follow the weekly chart so that you don’t loose perspective
>of the market’s overall trend.
>
>What I’m trying to show my readers in this issues of the ME E-zine is that
>there is no *magical* technique in investing properly - just a bunch of
>“common sense”.  Sometimes I see people pushing some techniques that are so
>far fetched and “out there” that I don’t know what they are doing.  Think
>about how simple most things are.  Your computer is nothing but a bunch of
>ON/OFF switches, your car is nothing but a combustion engine and alot of
>gears, your phone is nothing but a speaker, microphone and some buttons
>connected to a copper wire.  Don’t try to make investing harder than it
>really is.
>
>The more aggressive you attempt to trade, the greater your chance of loss
>becomes.  Do you want to increase your chance of loss or reduce your chance
>of loss??
>
>The DOW...  What can I say but “Bearish”.  I said it two weeks ago and I’ll
>say it again.
>
>Yes, there will be a point where the Dow finds a bottom and attempts
>another rally.  The test below 9400 on Friday shows me that the DOW is not
>finished yet.  Most of you know I can’t issue direct trading signals in
>this E-zine so look at a weekly chart of the DOW and tell me where you
>think it is going??  Then look at a weekly chart of your favorite equity or
>futures contract and do the same analysis.  If you are using a charting
>tool (like my PFP software applications) try to apply the theories I
>discussed herein and see how well they would have worked for you.  If you
>find validity in my comments, tell me what you think.  If not, the next
>issue of the ME E-zine will discuss other techniques.
>
>Good Trading.
>
>
>
>-----------[ Last Issues Comments
>]------------------------------------------------------
>Well well, what do I say after today’s DOW close.  Bearish???
>
>The pressures are being felt from all sides at this point I think.  The US
>is still a very strong player in the worlds markets, yet we are
>experiencing a solid “sell off” from that last attempt above 9200.  Many of
>the leading market technicians are turning “Bearish” and causing some
>interesting debates.  The news from Asia is also not helping things, but I
>would think it is not the physical cause of things here.  Yea... the
>pressure is being felt over here, but I believe we are just experiencing
>the normal reactionary tactic of the markets.
>
>The whole perspective of the “worlds markets” and how they affect each
>other is becoming much more interesting.  It is looking like a technicians
>game.  We can’t expect the markets to *just* continue going up..  Let’s
>continue with some relevant PFP teaching.
>
>Support and Resistance - most people know what they are, but can they use it??
>
>Look at a current Dow Jones candlestick chart then continue (please).
>
>The most simple example is to think of floors and ceilings within a chart.
>Start by looking for major peeks and valleys in the chart.  The high or low
>at those levels can be defined as support and resistance.  Now look a
>little further and find the most recent download & upward sloping support
>and resistance levels are.  Look for a series of higher or lower peeks and
>valleys within the chart.
>
>If you can imagine these types of lines on a chart, you’re ready to take it
>to the next level...
>
>These are my “best guesses” as to the current support and resistance lines
>are for the DOW.  If anyone would like to suggest additional levels or
>thinks differently, then just continue at your own risk.
>
>Support
>8623. on 6/15/98 (broken)
>8684. on 6/19/98 (broken)
>8165. on 2/4/98
>8000. (Downward S)
>7875. (Upward S)
>
>Resistance
>8880. (Downward R)
>
>There are some minor support levels from fractal bottom formations at
>8495 on 3/4/98
>8318 on 2/20/98
>
>I think you can see how support and resistance can play a vital role in
>understanding just one portion of the chart.  What would you expect the
>market to do tomorrow?
>
>The pressure is on.  Investors and members, read the charts.  By now, if
>you have been using the PFP software, you’ve experienced almost all of it’s
>features.  This tool you have been using is designed to take *some* of the
>guess work out of it by showing you how candlesticks, technical theory and
>training, as well as hundreds of price patterns fill the gap.
>
>I can’t come out and actually tell you what I think the market is going to
>do.  I might get sued.  I intend to help teach you to learn as I have.
>
>Where will it go from here.  It’s in a bearish trend.  It just broke recent
>support.  The candlesticks mentioned something about a sell potential on
>the 9/20 and 8/3.  The biggest question now is where will it stop??
>Anywhere it wants.
>
>After looking at some recent charts and certain sectors what strikes me is
>that there still is a lot of downside play that could eventually befall
>some of the recent *favorite* issues (stocks).  It really is a “technicians
>game”.  The price moves have been coming fast & furious, so play it safe
>with a stop or mental exit level.  Try not to open yourself up to too much
>risk when you can get out and look for a better trade.
>
>As I stated earlier in this message, the pressures are coming from all
>sides and the US market is going to adjust with the rest of them.  Where
>and when everything falls back into sync is anyone’s guess.  All traders
>look for that *Perfect Chart* where one can trade to heaven.  For some, its
>just a bullish trend, for others a bearish one.  Still others look for
>defined medium term trending charts.  Ones that move up and down
>consistently with sizeable moves made over time.
>
>Tune your skills and PLEASE send me some feedback.  I feel sometimes like
>I’m talking to a wall.  Any comments or suggestions are appreciated.
>---------------------------[ End of Last Issues Comments
>]--------------------------------
>
>-----------------[ It’s Your Money
>]-------------------------------------------------
>Use your best judgement and research your investments.  Visit the web site
>of the exchanges before you invest directly within another country and
>understand the laws.  Remember, it’s your money.
>
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>CLICK HERE TO VISIT :  http://www.ment.com/frames/rsc.html
>
>--------------[ Links and other FREE things
>]------------------------------------------
>
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>
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>
>ON-Line Futures Trading
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>
>Trading Theory & Educational Sites
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>
>FREE Things
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>
>Brad Matheny
>Matheny Enterprises   -   Dana Point, Ca  92629 USA
>(949) 240-6977 Phone  -   (949) 248-8747 Fax
><http://www.ment.com>