|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Adam,
Now we're cooking! The next thing you know we'll have 5 lumber
systems to compare. That annoying little HyperSnap disclaimer
has blocked out a portion of the first line of your
formula...would you mind supplying that line again? I hate to
assume anything when it comes to trading. You can eliminate that
box by signing up for the free trial. I like the shareware so
much I actually think I might buy it. John makes a very good
point: did you try optimizing the formula variables or the
actual trigger points. There is a tendency to over "tweak"
these things, but given the choice of tweaking or not tweaking,
I definitely a tweaker.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Von Hef <VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
> Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 11:20 AM
>
> Thanks John and Steve for your valuable insight!
> My system is also mechanical and I mostly deal in the Futures
market,
> so I will post my system test using Lumber also. First I
decided
> to use a mechanical system to help remove the "emotions" from
> my trade decisions. Also this system is new (I am also a
little green.....to
> trading) so I am still testing this on different markets.
> This system simply uses a crossing oscillator of PEAK and
TROUGH to
> trigger buy and sell signals, so far there seem to be little
fitting needed
> to
> apply to other markets, but my testing is not yet exhaustive.
It could
> easily be
> modified for different trading styles such as "The Trend Is
Your Friend"
> and other rules.
> PLEASE feel free to critique, suggest, comment or "warn of
impending
> danger".
> I value the experience thats in this group!
> Adam Hefner
> VonHef@xxxxxxxxxx
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 4:49 PM
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long), ...picking weakly
>
>
> >John,
> >
> >Thanks for "laying it out" for us. Jim and Al continually
> >contribute and have always been forthright with their
> >approaches. The "equity selections", (for me), are more of
an
> >amusing hobby (I invest a small % of my speculative portfolio
in
> >these traditionally slow moving markets). I've explained my
> >approach for stock selection (and yes, it's rather
subjective).
> >Although I was a stockbroker for over 15 years, my focus
remains
> >the futures market.
> >
> >I agree 100% that:
> >
> >a.) There should be more systems posted in this forum (people
> >that have contacted me directly have found that I hold
nothing
> >as "proprietary"; I can have give people the "holy grail" and
> >few would use it as intended)
> >b.) Somehow there should be a way to "track" daily and weekly
> >recommendations (Jim is especially good at "going public"
with
> >his weekly picks). Is this forum interested in the 5 -15
equity
> >positions that I hold and the fact that I might "flip" half
> >these positions tomorrow? If so, it would seem that some
kind
> >of subdivision of postings would be appropriate.
> >
> >Maybe the solution would be for interested parties to sign up
> >with marketplayer.com and "go public" with their
> >recommendations. The sign up is free and we can all monitor
> >each others positions; then in a short period of time we can
all
> >see who's entitled to "bragging rights". Personally, I
> >participate with the list to get and give help, not to "brag"
> >about returns (please, disregard my crass, braggadocios 10% a
> >month remark).
> >
> >Your approach to trading is a nice combination of sound
> >technical "puzzle pieces". I did detect that your '"system"
> >becomes somewhat subjective when you say: "Selling is the
hard
> >part. I tend to stick with some stocks long after they should
> >have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my exit strategy.
It's
> >too discretionary."
> >
> >I've attached an approach to the lumber market that is
totally
> >objective. I trade it daily. I've also included the system
> >that everyone can program in their own computer. I not
> >interested and reading future posts that say: "he posted his
> >best market"; or "that's for commodities, not securities"; or
> >"this is a best fit situation"; etc. Save the negative
comments
> >until you "bare your own souls" or can find something
inherently
> >wrong with this mechanical approach.
> >
> >The "system" is a linear regression approach that buys and
sells
> >when the price strays from the 4 day linear regression. Yes,
> >Virginia, it does use an opening price to calculate the
linear
> >regression (it's really not unAmerikan to do that). There is
> >"zero" subjectivity involved in the mechanics...all one needs
is
> >the guts to put the trades on. This approach works with many
> >different commodities, but with different variables for the
> >length of linear regressions and entry and exit "trigger"
points
> >(I'm offering up one of the middle of the road performers).
> >Remember: 1 point in lumber = $80 and I programmed in an $80
> >commission to allow for slippage).
> >
> >So, I challenge the list (as John did to me): lay it on me!
I'm
> >willing to exchange (profitable) formulas ....are you?
> >
> >Specifically yours, but still generally commenting,
> >
> >Steve Karnish
> >CCT
> >
> >
> >----------
> >> From: John Manasco <manasco@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
> >> Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 8:34 AM
> >>
> >> Steve Karnish
> >>
> >> Thanks for your post on how to gain 10%/month. Now I'm
going
> >to pick on
> >> you. I see many posts like this and read many articles in a
> >similar
> >> vein. Your general comments are very good but most people
on
> >this list
> >> are looking for specifics. I think most people are in a
> >constant
> >> learning mode and benefit from seeing what systems and
> >indicators work
> >> for other people. Jim Greening lays his system out for
> >everybody to
> >> learn from and criticize. Al Taglavore put out a recent
system
> >for all
> >> to see.
> >>
> >> O.K. I'll quit picking on you. You have had many good
posts.
> >I'd like to
> >> see a thread started where people lay out their systems and
> >indicators.
> >> Lets discuss the merits of each in a positive way so that
> >others and
> >> ourselves may learn from them. Maybe we'll all end up
trading
> >more
> >> profitably.
> >>
> >> So here's my system. I screen every day for stocks making
new
> >250 day
> >> highs using the hhv function, C>hhv(C,250). I look for
stocks
> >whose
> >> closing price is greater than 5 and less than 100. I screen
> >for stocks
> >> whose 50 day moving average of volume is greater than 50000
> >shares.
> >> Mov(V,50,S)>500. I look for stocks whose ADXR is greater
than
> >30,
> >> ADXR(14)>30 and whose ADXR is rising, ADXR(14) >
> >Ref(ADXR(14),-5). I
> >> also screen for stocks being accumulated using the Chaikin
A/D
> >> Oscillator, CO() > 0 and CO()>Ref(CO(),-3). This give me a
> >rising
> >> accumulation line.
> >>
> >> I also look at the daily advance/decline line, the
McClellan
> >oscillator
> >> and the summation index, the daily new highs/new lows, and
the
> >VIX. I
> >> pay attention to the S&P500 index as well as the NYSE and
NASD
> >and the
> >> T-Bond. When the A/D line and the McClellan oscillator and
> >summation
> >> index are all pointing down as well as the trend of the S&P
> >and NYSE I
> >> stand aside, even if my screens give me buy signals. I go
with
> >the
> >> trend.
> >>
> >> Selling is the hard part. I tend to stick with some stocks
> >long after
> >> they should have been sold. I'm not comfortable with my
exit
> >strategy.
> >> It's too discretionary. I take profits when I have a 10%
> >retracement or
> >> when a stock closes 8% below my purchase price. I don't
always
> >follow my
> >> rules.
> >>
> >> I'm in the process of creating and testing channel breakout
> >systems and
> >> will switch if they prove themselves.
> >>
> >> So bring on the flames folks, what's your system like?
> >>
> >> John Manasco
>
|