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Guy,
The market indices look to me like they successfully tested the
August bottom and are now setting up for a run at the July highs. Of
course that could happen in a few weeks and October is always a scary
month <G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, August 22, 1998 2:05 AM
Subject: RE: Weekly Pick (long)
>Also, thanks for the chart and the report. Based on that report, we
have up
>to 3 weeks to get settled in and prepare for the drop. Sort of fits
in with
>our scenerio, that we'll get another opportunity or so to get short.
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>> Sent: Friday, August 21, 1998 9:36 PM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>>
>>
>> Guy,
>> Very cute candlestick "hammer" today and you gotta love those
>> fibonacci arcs and retracements. Was he really an 11th century
>> Italian mathematician? I know Dino Fibonacci, from Dearborn,
>> he's the guy who dated Madonna before Dennis Rodman. Also, did
>> the "Motor City five finger discount" and swiped some stuff off
>> an internet site (see attachment: MARKET CRASHES). My lawyer,
>> Geoffrey Fieger, says: "If it's on the internet....it's public
>> domain". Glad your're back up.
>>
>> Steve Karnish
>> CCT
>>
>> ----------
>> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Subject: RE: Weekly Pick (long)
>> > Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 5:44 PM
>> >
>> > Steve
>> >
>> > Been off line for about 4 days with a down computer, but
>> here's a note from
>> > my dad from 8/18:
>> >
>> >
>> > <<Checking my figures the dow recoverd 39% and the SPI 32%
>> which is normal
>> > could even recover some more.>>
>> >
>> > Like you thoughts about the market genius and their 'buy and
>> hold' and 'buy
>> > on pull backs' scenerios. Our thoughts are that the NASDAQ
>> will drop 50%
>> > BEFORE they realize they're in a bear market.
>> >
>> > We had a sell signal for Wednesday at the close, but our
>> contrary indicator
>> > was too high to execute (said the market action was a little
>> too strong that
>> > day to short at the close). Leads me to believe that we're
>> still going to
>> > see some choppiness in the market, before it really drops.
>> >
>> > Regards
>> >
>> > Guy
>> >
>> > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
>> Karnish
>> > > Sent: Friday, August 21, 1998 6:48 AM
>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Dan,
>> > > I know we have discussed this on the phone, but I thought I
>> > > might share this with the group. The following approach has
>> > > returned steady profits (10%+/month) during the last 18
>> months.
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > A. Analyze the indices and discern market direction by
>> applying
>> > > the tools that you are most comfortable with and have been
>> the
>> > > most reliable.
>> > > B. Screen for: "most volatile" issues.
>> > > C. Initiate positions in issues that have topping or
>> bottoming
>> > > patterns that imitate the indices.
>> > >
>> > > The degree of success will be predicated on one's ability to
>> > > apply the proper tools to the indices and issues. Sound
>> simple?
>> > > Yes. Will people take issue with this approach? Probably.
>> > >
>> > > I attended a dinner party last night at, Washington State
>> > > University, and a professor argued with me about how
>> "yuppie"
>> > > 401k money would fuel the market to "infinity". This same
>> > > individual received the following email from me on 7/21
>> > > (reprinted in part):
>> > >
>> > > "We've finally approached an area that has me concerned in
>> the
>> > > Dow. All my technical work is pointing to the downside
>> since
>> > > Friday and I knew it would take a few days to set up. That
>> > > brings us to yesterday, today, tomorrow...or very, very
>> soon.
>> > > Look out below. A correction would do this market good."
>> > >
>> > > This prof would rather argue and defend his positions, than
>> > > analyze and be flexible (he's one of these recent "market
>> > > geniuses", created in the last 8 years, with the buy and
>> hold
>> > > strategy). It's tough to argue with someone who's used to
>> > > making 30% for the last couple years. My, how quickly the
>> > > market regurgitates 10% "chunks". We're going down hard in
>> > > September. After this "consolidation", which started on 8/5,
>> is
>> > > completed, look for topping action in the indices and
>> > > immediately start screen for securities with the largest
>> > > volatility. If they also have technical topping
>> patterns...sell
>> > > short. You ain't seen nothing yet.
>> > >
>> > > Steve Karnish
>> > > CCT
>> > >
>> > > ----------
>> > > > From: HARELSDB@xxxxxxx
>> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>> > > > Date: Thursday, August 20, 1998 11:47 PM
>> > > >
>> > > > In a message dated 98-08-20 03:44:11 EDT, you write:
>> > > >
>> > > > << Pretty hard to support your contention, Dan -- most
>> hedge
>> > > funds recognize
>> > > > and capitalize on some stocks going up while others go
>> > > down to achieve
>> > > > their superior performance.
>> > > > Livermore (Lefever) and crew faced simpler opponents in
>> > > simpler times.
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > JMHO Bob >>
>> > > >
>> > > > I have given this a little more thought and I believe I
>> have
>> > > come up with a
>> > > > probablistic argument that I think is difficult to refute.
>> > > >
>> > > > 1. A positive beta means that a stock moves in the same
>> > > direction as the
>> > > > market.
>> > > > 2. Most stocks have positive betas. (I found 588 stocks
>> in a
>> > > database of
>> > > > 11,000 that have betas less than or equal to zero.)
>> > > >
>> > > > Conclusion: A trader that takes a position in a stock in
>> the
>> > > same direction
>> > > > as the market is moving has a higher probability of
>> success
>> > > because most
>> > > > stocks move in the same direction as the market.
>> > > >
>> > > > Please post if you see a flaw in my thinking.
>> > > >
>> > > > Dan
>> > > > Pocatello, ID, USA
>> > >
>
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