|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Also, thanks for the chart and the report. Based on that report, we have up
to 3 weeks to get settled in and prepare for the drop. Sort of fits in with
our scenerio, that we'll get another opportunity or so to get short.
Regards
Guy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
> Sent: Friday, August 21, 1998 9:36 PM
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
>
>
> Guy,
> Very cute candlestick "hammer" today and you gotta love those
> fibonacci arcs and retracements. Was he really an 11th century
> Italian mathematician? I know Dino Fibonacci, from Dearborn,
> he's the guy who dated Madonna before Dennis Rodman. Also, did
> the "Motor City five finger discount" and swiped some stuff off
> an internet site (see attachment: MARKET CRASHES). My lawyer,
> Geoffrey Fieger, says: "If it's on the internet....it's public
> domain". Glad your're back up.
>
> Steve Karnish
> CCT
>
> ----------
> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: RE: Weekly Pick (long)
> > Date: Friday, August 21, 1998 5:44 PM
> >
> > Steve
> >
> > Been off line for about 4 days with a down computer, but
> here's a note from
> > my dad from 8/18:
> >
> >
> > <<Checking my figures the dow recoverd 39% and the SPI 32%
> which is normal
> > could even recover some more.>>
> >
> > Like you thoughts about the market genius and their 'buy and
> hold' and 'buy
> > on pull backs' scenerios. Our thoughts are that the NASDAQ
> will drop 50%
> > BEFORE they realize they're in a bear market.
> >
> > We had a sell signal for Wednesday at the close, but our
> contrary indicator
> > was too high to execute (said the market action was a little
> too strong that
> > day to short at the close). Leads me to believe that we're
> still going to
> > see some choppiness in the market, before it really drops.
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Guy
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Steve
> Karnish
> > > Sent: Friday, August 21, 1998 6:48 AM
> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
> > >
> > >
> > > Dan,
> > > I know we have discussed this on the phone, but I thought I
> > > might share this with the group. The following approach has
> > > returned steady profits (10%+/month) during the last 18
> months.
> > >
> > >
> > > A. Analyze the indices and discern market direction by
> applying
> > > the tools that you are most comfortable with and have been
> the
> > > most reliable.
> > > B. Screen for: "most volatile" issues.
> > > C. Initiate positions in issues that have topping or
> bottoming
> > > patterns that imitate the indices.
> > >
> > > The degree of success will be predicated on one's ability to
> > > apply the proper tools to the indices and issues. Sound
> simple?
> > > Yes. Will people take issue with this approach? Probably.
> > >
> > > I attended a dinner party last night at, Washington State
> > > University, and a professor argued with me about how
> "yuppie"
> > > 401k money would fuel the market to "infinity". This same
> > > individual received the following email from me on 7/21
> > > (reprinted in part):
> > >
> > > "We've finally approached an area that has me concerned in
> the
> > > Dow. All my technical work is pointing to the downside
> since
> > > Friday and I knew it would take a few days to set up. That
> > > brings us to yesterday, today, tomorrow...or very, very
> soon.
> > > Look out below. A correction would do this market good."
> > >
> > > This prof would rather argue and defend his positions, than
> > > analyze and be flexible (he's one of these recent "market
> > > geniuses", created in the last 8 years, with the buy and
> hold
> > > strategy). It's tough to argue with someone who's used to
> > > making 30% for the last couple years. My, how quickly the
> > > market regurgitates 10% "chunks". We're going down hard in
> > > September. After this "consolidation", which started on 8/5,
> is
> > > completed, look for topping action in the indices and
> > > immediately start screen for securities with the largest
> > > volatility. If they also have technical topping
> patterns...sell
> > > short. You ain't seen nothing yet.
> > >
> > > Steve Karnish
> > > CCT
> > >
> > > ----------
> > > > From: HARELSDB@xxxxxxx
> > > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: Weekly Pick (long)
> > > > Date: Thursday, August 20, 1998 11:47 PM
> > > >
> > > > In a message dated 98-08-20 03:44:11 EDT, you write:
> > > >
> > > > << Pretty hard to support your contention, Dan -- most
> hedge
> > > funds recognize
> > > > and capitalize on some stocks going up while others go
> > > down to achieve
> > > > their superior performance.
> > > > Livermore (Lefever) and crew faced simpler opponents in
> > > simpler times.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > JMHO Bob >>
> > > >
> > > > I have given this a little more thought and I believe I
> have
> > > come up with a
> > > > probablistic argument that I think is difficult to refute.
> > > >
> > > > 1. A positive beta means that a stock moves in the same
> > > direction as the
> > > > market.
> > > > 2. Most stocks have positive betas. (I found 588 stocks
> in a
> > > database of
> > > > 11,000 that have betas less than or equal to zero.)
> > > >
> > > > Conclusion: A trader that takes a position in a stock in
> the
> > > same direction
> > > > as the market is moving has a higher probability of
> success
> > > because most
> > > > stocks move in the same direction as the market.
> > > >
> > > > Please post if you see a flaw in my thinking.
> > > >
> > > > Dan
> > > > Pocatello, ID, USA
> > >
|