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Hi Guy,
You might have an entry point for your shorts here.
S&P back to almost 90 points from the top, 3 waves up, maybe a lower double
top and there is a strong cycle coming in tomorrow which could turn it down.
Regards,
Dick.
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, 17 August 1998 6:35
Subject: RE: Death of the Bull?
>Al
>
>In looking at your post, and starting my trendline from 10-31-97,
connecting
>it to the bottom of 1-30-98, then we have broken through the trendline this
>month. Actually, with a chart with an increasing slope, we have had
several
>short term trendlines, IMHO.
>
>Look at the first one beginning at 12-30-94 and extending to 7-31-96. A
>second one beginning at 7-31-96 and continuing to 10-31-97. Finally, a
>third one beginning 10-31-97 and connecting through 1-30-98. It appears
>that we have significantly broken through this last trendline, if we extend
>it to the right. By my chart, the next resistance and the next support is
>around 1000, or another 60 points down.
>
>My dad's preliminary estimate for this drop, and these are just rough
>guesstimates, was 21-22% which would take us back to the top of the
parallel
>channel for trendline #1 above.
>
>I guess, we feel there is the possibility that we could continue for
another
>60 point drop and if that doesn't hold, then a further decline to the
>930-940 level. Now, chart wise, this doesn't make a lot of sense, but
these
>would be the calculations based upon another methodology we use. Actually,
>I was hoping for a run up of from 50 to maybe 100 points before we dropped
>to our 1000 support level, giving me an opportunity to get some better
>positions to play with. I would feel better if we had a 50 point run up
>before we dropped further, otherwise we run the potential of a major spike
>down like 1987 and going through the bear market in about a week's time.
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>On Behalf Of Al Taglavore
>Sent: Saturday, August 15, 1998 1:24 PM
>To: MetaStock List Group
>Subject: Death of the Bull?
>
>In my attempts to develop a methodology for trading the S&P and as a result
>of looking at different time frames, I offer these observations:
>
>If anyone will look at the S&P on a monthly MS chart from Jan of 1994, one
>will see a fabulous chart that almost looks like a stairstep.
>
>Since the end of Jan 98 to July 98 there has only been one month that the
>S&P traded below the previous months low, and that was only by 2.31 points
>
>This is the first month that we have traded significantly below the
>previous month.
>
>If a trendline is drawn from the Oct 97 low, we have YET to touch that
>line. It is a sign of strength for a trendline to be touched and therefore
>tested, and we have yet to touch the line.
>
>To all that study channels, I ask, are we not now approaching the bottom of
>a short term {based on monthly data} channel?
>
>Unless 896.75 on a closing basis is violated, are we not in a bull market
>still?
>
>If we do not listen to T V and read newspapers, but trade off of charts,
>could we find a more profitable chart pattern?
>
>To all chartist, please give an evaluation.
>
>Al Taglavore
>
>
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