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Adam
Steve's reply basically handled it, but here's a brief example. Look at the
Wall Street Journal Futures page and look up Pork Bellies. I think the next
'big' month is Feb 99 with open interest of 2,500 contracts. Then take a
look at the current, active month for Treasury Bonds or S&P futures, both
for September. Look at the open interest there as well as the number of
contracts being traded.
For 'safety' in trading futures, you need a 'liquid' market to insure ease
of entry and exit.
Regards
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Von Hef
Sent: Sunday, August 16, 1998 6:18 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Market discussion
I appreciate everyone's stories, could you explain what you and Guy
mean with the term "Thin Market" and how you technically determine
if a market is "thin"?
Thanks,
Adam Hefner
-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 10:21 PM
Subject: Re: Market discussion
>Guy,
>
>
>When I first started trading, I developed a little moving
>average oscillator and applied it to the cocoa market. I
>watched as it posted 10 or 11 profitable trades in a row and
>jumped in thinking I'd soon make "a pile" and retire. It
>chugged along for about a week or so executing it's stop and
>reverse signals. About two weeks had passed and my $3,000
>investment had grown to over $18,000. I thought I was God's
>gift to technical analysis. I was in a long position when the
>market went limit against me and continued posting limit moves
>for days afterwards. I escaped with a small loss and a big
>lesson on "thin markets" and "large egos".
>
> As Al alluded to in an earlier post: "we need to learn that we
>will never know" (I think that's what he said). When I stopped
>thinking I had all the answers (during young and dumb "daze")
>and realized I hardly knew anything (and still don't), things
>got a lot easier. I'm still trying to figure out how the grains
>are going to go up with world currencies going in the toilet.
>Being an ex Motor City boy, I hope you noticed that giant move
>off the bottom that the Canadian dollar posted last week. I
>hear that Windsor casinos have been giving $150 Canadian in
>exchange to $100 US for months. Looks like the market caught up
>with their promotional idea since last April.
>
>Steve Karnish
>CCT
>----------
>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: RE: Market discussion
>> Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 5:00 PM
>>
>> Steve
>>
>> You're right about that long term definition. Short term is
>when we get out
>> on the close, medium term is when we exit the next morning and
>long term is
>> EOD the next day, or maybe later :).
>>
>> I once took an unbelievable bath in Wheat in the 1950s, I
>think. Maybe the
>> early 60s. Wheat was right at its support level (government
>support price),
>> so I rationalized that here was a price the government would
>pay for the
>> stuff, why would it drop below that number. Looked like
>limited risk to me
>> :) . Bought 50,000 bushels and watched it drop like a stone
>right through
>> the support price. Costly lesson for either a teenager or
>someone in his
>> early 20s.
>>
>> That reminds me of the 8 limit days down against me in
>Bellies. That one
>> taught me never to trade thin markets :) .
>>
>> Why do these lessons have to be so expensive???
>>
>> Regards
>>
>> Guy
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>> On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>> Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 6:07 PM
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Subject: Re: Market discussion
>>
>> Guy,
>>
>> I agree with your European negative fundamentals. Every day
>we
>> gather more evidence. Today, the markets seemed to be
>> anticipating some very negative news over the weekend. Buy
>the
>> rumor (bonds and dollars) and sell the rumor (currencies and
>> equities). Those individuals holding short positions in the
>> D-Mark and DJU/SPU could benefit during the next 48 hours.
>> International Monetary Socialism is failing.
>>
>> I still like corn and wheat for the long term (although my
>> technical approach alternates from long to short and back
>> again...I've traded wheat 45 times this year). I usually get
>in
>> trouble when I analyze things long term. As a commodity
>trader,
>> I've always told people that long term is overnight.
>>
>> Steve Karnish
>> CCT
>>
>> ----------
>> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Subject: RE: Market discussion
>> > Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 3:21 PM
>> >
>> > Steve
>> >
>> > I guess I'm not the only one who remembers 1955 in Michigan.
>> The year I
>> > graduated High School and started at the Univ. of Michigan.
>> >
>> > And while I agree with a lot of your comments, there are a
>> couple of
>> > negative fundamentals that might enter the equation. With
>the
>> Asian flu,
>> > Russia taking a dump, the potential for this to push Europe
>> into a
>> > recession, your one missing element is demand. Granted
>people
>> have to eat,
>> > but do they have the money to buy corn to feed to animals
>and
>> then eat meat
>> > or do they stay with basic food stuffs in bad times?
>> >
>> > Guy
>> >
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>> > On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>> > Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 9:29 AM
>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > Subject: Re: Market discussion
>> >
>> > Dick,
>> >
>> > Since I started something and you offered an opinion on
>> > grains...I'd like to make a case for a bottom in corn:
>> >
>> > 1. "Funky-mentals": big crop, crummy exports, limited
>> storage,
>> > large carry over, and my mother-in-law saying it's going to
>> > $1.65.
>> > Analysis: When your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.
>> >
>> > 2. "Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum.
>> (If
>> > people want some interesting reading they can contact the
>> > Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn
>has
>> a
>> > dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle. The
>> > last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out
>> the
>> > charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together
>after
>> > the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come
>together"
>> > is September 1998.
>> > Analysis: Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when
>> the
>> > planets line up in conjunction (just a bunch of big old
>> cycles).
>> > Always be aware of cycles and take notice when amplitudes
>> pile
>> > up on one another.
>> >
>> > 2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to catch some flack for
>> > bringing in the weather into this discussion. But.......,
>In
>> > 1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan State
>> > University and one of the professors (Black) had just
>> completed
>> > a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production report.
>> The
>> > given is that every 22 years there is a peak in sunspot
>> > activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and
>1955.
>> > I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both
>> summers.
>> > 1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years
>> in
>> > Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had
>over
>> > 50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999 is
>> > another peak year.
>> > Analysis: Mama told me not to look into the sun, but I
>said:
>> > Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes grain, drought
>> makes
>> > money (if you're long).
>> >
>> > 3. "The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and seeking
>> > another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional
>> divergence;
>> > RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another
>bottom;
>> %
>> > of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty"
>down
>> > hook Long term: When the "near term" indicators turn on
>> > support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those "buys
>> of
>> > the millenium".
>> > Analysis: When different indicators, (founded in different
>> > math), make a coincidental bottoms ...you have a powerful
>buy
>> > signal.
>> >
>> > Opportunities to participate in absolute tops and absolute
>> > bottoms only roll in every couple of years. This just
>happens
>> > to be a time in history when there are multiple choices
>among
>> > basic raw materials that are making 'bargain basement" lows.
>> > Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains, and the metals
>will
>> > all be higher when inflation visits us again (remember
>> > inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position
>long
>> > positions.
>> >
>> > Steve Karnish
>> > CCT
>> >
>> > ----------
>> > > From: Dick Simmons <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > Subject: Re: Market discussion
>> > > Date: Sunday, August 09, 1998 6:39 PM
>> > >
>> > > Hi all,
>> > > There should be more posts like this. I am sure that we
>> would
>> > get more out
>> > > of this subject than some of the other discussions - lets
>> keep
>> > this one
>> > > going.
>> > > Grains I feel have some way to go both in price and time
>> > before bottoming
>> > > out.
>> > > The Indexes are doing a counter trend move at the moment
>> > before falling a
>> > > lot further - you can only be short in this market.
>> > > Regards,
>> > > Dick.
>> > > -----Original Message-----
>> > > From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > Date: Saturday, 8 August 1998 3:48
>> > > Subject: Re: WAG THE DOG
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >----------
>> > > >> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > >> To: MetaStock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > >> Subject: WAG THE DOG
>> > > >> Date: Friday, August 07, 1998 10:23 AM
>> > > >>
>> > > >> Steve wrote ".......snip-snip
>> > > >
>> > > >> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in
>> > grains, a
>> > > >> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in
>> cotton
>> > and
>> > > >> cocoa??
>> > > >>
>> > > >> Steve Karnish
>> > > >> CCT
>> > > >No, I do not have any comments as to the bottom in
>grains,
>> > but I would sure
>> > > >like to read some comments about the DMark and upcoming
>> Euro
>> > and the 30Y
>> > > >TBond. Like, if the market is coming down as it has,
>where
>> > is the money
>> > > >going? Bonds are not rising, gold is stagnant, the CRB
>is
>> > falling, so
>> > > >where, in anyone's opinion is the money going? Sure
>would
>> be
>> > great to see
>> > > >some posts concerning markets, trading, and making money.
>> > > >
>> > > >Al Taglavore
>> > > >
>
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