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Back to reality.
>
> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in grains, a
> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in cotton and
> cocoa??
>
> Steve Karnish
Bruce Gould is the best advisor/trader in grains (and several other
commodities) that I have run across. Used to take his newsletter, and have
some of his books. (He was chief grain trader for General Mills at age 23, he
also had a successful daily hotline that was highly rated while it existed.)
His favorite bottom pattern was what he called a "1 2 3" pattern. It is a
double bottom pattern, life of contract low, followed by a reversal (generally
breaks the down trend line), followed by a retracement that doesn't make it
down to a LOC low. (Will look like a lopsided "W".) Then you pick the bounce
from there. I think that others have picked up on this pattern, but he
originated it. He also used this same pattern for tops. The low from the
retracement doesn't always hold (in fact will often get blasted), and if it
doesn't, he had a stop just under the prior LOC low. But its amazing at how
often that low does hold.
He has also said that he has never found a mechanical system that works, or at
least doesn't work as well as the other chart patterns he uses. He has said
that the most consistent winners are from break outs of support and
resistance, and the crossing of trend lines.
Grains look real interesting, but could go sideways/choppy for quite a while.
Jim
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