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Hi everyone,
A few days ago I received Fishback's ODDS book and video.
ODDS principle:
1. calculate historical volatility using a spreadsheet
2. by using statistical analysis (normal distribution: Bell curve)
calculate the probable price range in the coming period
3. sell a stangle with stikes at the extremes of the price range
4. protect this short position by buying a higher call and a lower put
My questions are:
1. can normal distribution be used to predict prices in the financial
markets?
2. which period is the best to use for calculating historical volatility?
3. can historical volatility tell you something about the future prices?
4. can you earn money using this ODDS method in practice
(remember bid/ask, commissions, slippage etc.)?
5. I don't understand the similarities between the ODDS system explained
in the video/book and the ODDS system in Metastock 6.5 ? The only
similarity I can see is: use volatility in option trading.
6. ODDS was published in 1994. In those years OEX volatility was much lower
than today. Maybe ODDS doesn't work that well anymore in 1998 and maybe
that's the reason it's now published...?
I found it interesting to read ODDS. I have the impression ODDS can make a
profit in the long run, because it is a "continuous strategy". You don't
have to wait for a buy or sell signal.
But I do think a lot of experiments have to be made before using this
strategy, for example: what volatility period is best? Sell short period
options and buy longer periods (theta factor!)?
Is there someone out there who can tell me more about ODDS?
Or is able to share hers/his experience with this system?
Thanks!
Regards,
Onno
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