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You can start a Fibonacci and Lucas series at any pair of numbers, and the
ratios of the results will rapidly converge to the ratios that we associate
with Fibonacci numbers.
I agree with the comments about the usefulness of Fib #s, but I also use
other indicators.
As in engineering, we may know that certain methods work, but not why they
work.
Lionel
-----Original Message-----
From: Rick Mortellra <rmjapan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, July 18, 1998 11:26 AM
Subject: Re: Fibs
>I don't think anyone has made a fundamentally sound arguement for why using
>Fib parameters works. But I agree, they are uncanny. There's also another
>set called Lucas numbers that possesses the same "golden ratio"
>characteristic. I think series begins with 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47,
>76, 123, 199, etc.
>
>cheers,
>Rick
>
>PS. Congrats on the EGGS call Jim!
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Saturday, July 18, 1998 12:28 PM
>Subject: Re: Tema
>
>
>>Steve,
>> I use Fibonacci numbers in a lot of my system tests. I don't
>>know why, but they seem to work better.
>>
>>Jim
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Date: Friday, July 17, 1998 8:20 PM
>>Subject: Re: Tema
>>
>>
>>>Jim,
>>>I noticed in your advice to Bill that you used the numbers: 21,
>>>34, 55. What part does Fibonacci numbers play in your overall
>>>anlaysis? Is anyone out there going beyond the arcs,
>>>retracements, and period tools that MS provides?
>>>Steve Karnish
>>>CCT
>>>
>>>----------
>>>> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> Subject: Re: Tema
>>>> Date: Friday, July 17, 1998 1:04 PM
>>>>
>>>> Bill,
>>>> That's right, what you have is a system test formula.
>>>The
>>>> explorer can't optimize, where the system tester can. To use
>>>the
>>>> formula in the Explorer, you have to replace opt2. Start out
>>>using
>>>> 21, then you can try the other values of 34 or 55 to see which
>>>you
>>>> like best. In fact you can experiment with any number you
>>>want.
>>>>
>>>> Jim
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Bill G Bolumen <BOLUMENB@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> Date: Thursday, July 16, 1998 6:24 PM
>>>> Subject: Re: Tema
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> >Jim,
>>>> >I am not good at all with formulas and I was trying to copy
>>>your
>>>> Short
>>>> >Formula into explorer and it says that "optimization
>>>variables are
>>>> not
>>>> >allowed in this type of formula"
>>>> >What else do I need to other than just inputting the short
>>>formula
>>>> into the
>>>> >explorer?
>>>> >Thanks,
>>>> >Bill
>>>> >
>>>> >----------
>>>> >> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>>> >> Subject: Re: Tema
>>>> >> Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 6:54 PM
>>>> >>
>>>> >> CMA,
>>>> >> I'll copy an old post below.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Jim
>>>> >> --------------------------------------
>>>> >> The Rsquared, S/C,MFI test is based on linear
>>>regression.
>>>> >> RSquared is a function that measures how strong a data
>>>array of
>>>> given
>>>> >> length is trending. A return of one correlates to a very
>>>strong
>>>> trend
>>>> >> in either direction. A return of zero correlates to no
>>>trend. I'm
>>>> >> using it to tell me when there is no trend over the last 21
>>>days,
>>>> or
>>>> >> that rsquared(C,21) is less than 0.15. Now that we have no
>>>trend,
>>>> we
>>>> >> would expect one to start in the next 5 to 13 days. If one
>>>does
>>>> start
>>>> >> we want to determine the direction and get in early.
>>>Therefore
>>>> >> Rsquared is used as a trigger, using it as an ALERT
>>>function. With
>>>> >> the ALERT given, if all the rest of the conditions are met
>>>any time
>>>> >> within a 13 day period, the buy signal will be generated.
>>>I'm then
>>>> >> using S/C and MFI to determine trend start and direction.
>>>> >> S/C is nothing more than the normalized 34 day
>>>LinRegSlope of
>>>> the
>>>> >> close. I normalize it by dividing it by the close so
>>>charts are
>>>> more
>>>> >> directly comparable. I also multiply by 10000 just to get
>>>numbers
>>>> >> between 0 and a few hundred. Finally I apply Tema
>>>smoothing to get
>>>> a
>>>> >> smoother plot. The theory is that if S/C is rising then a
>>>uptrend
>>>> is
>>>> >> in progress. If S/C is falling a down trend is in
>>>progress. I
>>>> check
>>>> >> this by making sure that tema(S/C) is larger than an
>>>optimized
>>>> value
>>>> >> (opt1) and is rising. I use the function HHV(X,5) =
>>>HHV(X,13) to
>>>> >> check. This is just a quick way to determine if the most
>>>reason
>>>> >> values of X have been rising. If the condition is met,
>>>then S/C is
>>>> >> rising. Similarly if it met the condition LLV(X,5) =
>>>LLV(C,13) it
>>>> >> would be falling.
>>>> >> I double check the result by also making sure that MFI
>>>is also
>>>> >> rising. When all conditions are met within 13 days of the
>>>alert,
>>>> we
>>>> >> get a buy signal. The converse is true for a sell signal.
>>>Since
>>>> the
>>>> >> market is biased upwards, I add two additional checks for
>>>the
>>>> short -
>>>> >> MFI less then 0 and the 55 day variable moving average
>>>falling. I
>>>> >> close the positions when the trend has stopped. For the
>>>long
>>>> position
>>>> >> I check that the Tema(MFI) is below 0, the Tema(S/C) is
>>>below opt 1
>>>> >> and a 55 day exp moving average is falling. Short
>>>positions tend
>>>> to
>>>> >> move faster, so I only look the 144 day moving aver to
>>>begin rising
>>>> to
>>>> >> close that position. The complete test follows:
>>>> >>
>>>> >> ENTER LONG:
>>>> >> Alert(RSquared(C,21) < 0.15,13) AND
>>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) > opt1 AND
>>>> >> HHV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>>> >> HHV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>>> >> HHV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = HHV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13)
>>>> >>
>>>> >> CLOSE LONG:
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 < 0 AND
>>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) < opt1 AND
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13)
>>>> >>
>>>> >> ENTER SHORT
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Alert(RSquared(C,21) < 0.15,13) AND
>>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) < opt2 AND
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>>> >> LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13) AND
>>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 < 0 AND
>>>> >> LLV(Mov(C,55,VAR),5) = LLV(Mov(C,55,VAR),13)
>>>> >>
>>>> >> CLOSE SHORT
>>>> >>
>>>> >> HHV(Mov(C,55,VAR),5) = HHV(Mov(C,55,VAR),13) AND
>>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 > 0
>>>> >>
>>>> >> OPTIMIZATION:
>>>> >>
>>>> >> OPT1: Min=-34 Max=-8 Step=13
>>>> >> OPT2: Min=-55 Max=-21 Step=34
>>>> >>
>>>> >> -----Original Message-----
>>>> >> From: amc amc <cma6@xxxxxxxxx>
>>>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>>> >> Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 11:09 AM
>>>> >> Subject: Tema
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>>>> >> >
>>>> >> >To Jim Greening:Don't know if you have covered this, but
>>>can you
>>>> >> >describe Tema S/C and Tema MFI (money flow index?),
>>>howconstructed
>>>> >> >and how interpreted. Thanks, CMA
>>>> >> >
>>>> >> >
>>>> >> >
>>>> >> >_________________________________________________________
>>>> >> >DO YOU YAHOO!?
>>>> >> >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>>>> >> >
>>>> >>
>>>> >>
>>>>
>>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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