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Hi Guy,
I've been reading your comments with great interest, and I
haven't seen you describe your S&P futures trading system...
What's interesting to me is that after all these years, you've
managed to not only survive, but prosper using it. (Most I
know haven't accomplished either of these seemingly elusive
trading goals in futures trading)
Could you describe your system ? (I hope I'm not being
nosey, but I'm curious about the nature of a mechanical
system robust enough to survive all these years of use.)
Thanks,
Dick
Dick@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
P.S. I lived in So. Cal. for about 25 years, and right now, hawaiian
property is cheaper than many parts of California (because of the
Japanese credit collapse, and the subsequent sale of assetts to the
tune of ~.25 on the dollar) Go figure, eh ?
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, June 20, 1998 11:55 PM
Subject: RE: Times are a changing? Bonds & Equities
>Otto
>
>I agree with your comments, however right now, it appears that we have
>decoupled without the recession indicators flying, at least here in the US.
>With regards to Asia, I see a flight to US Bonds to increase the meager
>interest earnings available to the Asian saver and as protection from the
>collapsing markets over there. For it to happen now, after the market
>collapse in Japan, the problems in Korea, Hong Kong reunification, etc.
Why
>now? Why not earlier, while the Japanese market was beginning its way
down?
>
>Commodity prices have been on a downward slide for some time now as well.
>Through all this, Bonds remained coupled to equities here (at least in our
>system). I guess what I was posing was has anyone else seen this or was I
>imagining it and did anyone have thoughts to share whether concerning the
>fundamentals or what they noticed through their Technical Analysis.
>
>BTW, other areas to consider in addition to utilities are food vendors like
>the big grocery chains. People still have to eat, as the story goes.
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>On Behalf Of Otto
>Sent: Friday, June 19, 1998 7:00 PM
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: RE: Times are a changing? Bonds & Equities
>
>I apologize if I am stating the obvious or something totally out of whack.
>But it has been my understanding that equities and bonds decouple every
>once in a while whenever investors are beginning to focus on a possible
>recession ahead. With a possible recession ahead, the utilities rise
>markedly and the bonds follow, because investors are anticipating an
>economic slow-down which will reduce money demand, reduce interest rates,
>and thus increase bond prices.
>
>If investors go back to focusing on economic overheating (and fear of the
>fed), then the bonds and equities will re-couple, as investors see any
>evidence of overheating of the economy as bearish for both equities and
>bonds, and they will see any evidence of moderate cooling of the economy as
>relief from their fear of the fed, and thus bullish for equities as well as
>bonds.
>
>If the bonds make an extreme move (currently perhaps yields increasing
>beyond 6.2%) then the bonds might re-couple because this would strangle
>profits enough to be bearish for equities who would then join the bonds on
>the way down. If the bonds make an extreme move up, pulling the yield down
>to 5.4% and lower, this does not necessarily mean that equities will rejoin
>the bonds and rise, because the drastic drop in bond yields can happen in
>times of deflation (recession, depression, disaster, catastrophy, end of
>the world, etc.) and this is not good for corporate earnings, therefore
>remains bearish for equities.
>
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