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When I got the book years ago, I attempted many ways to display and test his
"system". After giving it a look-see based on my mindset, I left it alone.
I don't even look at his indicators. The different parts, MACD, Force index,
2 day ema of elder-ray, how do they test?
I don't trade futures since loosing some money in 1971 in them. I am sure a
successful futures trader might jump in and comment on Elder that would be
more informative. The few good ones, I have met, prefer 60 or 5 minute
charts.
People laughed at Murray on this list because of his presentation but his
ideas aren't too bad. Worth a look for the futures types. If I was trading
futures,I would use Advanced GET RT. There you can work the waves and
ripples.
Richard Estes
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Richard Estes <restes@xxxxxxxxx>; metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; John E Bush <jb90036@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, January 19, 1998 2:38 PM
Subject: Re: A Difference with Elder...
>Richard,
>
>Sorry for my previous hasty response to your note. I didn't read it
>carefully enough. You're asking really good questions. Actually, I don't
>have complete answers to all of them yet.
>
>When you say that you have not seen outstanding results is this because
>you've never heard of someone testing Elder's specific description of his
>concept or because you know of someone who did and the results were not
>outstanding?
>
>I don't doubt that if one tested Elder's specific description of Triple
>Screen it may not produce "outstanding results". I certainly would not
>trade Elder's specific description of Triple Screen.
>
>Elder says that "trades that pass the Triple Screen test have a higher
>degree of profitability." I think this isn't very well stated. The way
>that I would put it is this: "trades that pass some well-thought-through
>instantiation of Elder's multi-period concept have a higher probability of
>success."
>
>The graphic I provided earlier today with a description of indicator parms
>is an analog of what I'm doing intra-day that reflects my best effort so
far
>to develop the indicators for a concrete instantiation of Elder's concept.
>
>I've been spending alot of time pouring over historical data visually to
>ensure that I understand how a system based on this concept would work.
>I've reviewed thousands and thousands of ripple bars with associated wave
>and tide bars and indicators (my ripple bar is one minute). My visual
>analysis continually reinforces my belief in the value of the core Elder
>conceptual framework for making profitable trades and for avoiding bad or
>difficult trades. I'm just about to the place where I can express the
rules
>in structured english. But, of course, this is still not the same as a
real
>system test. The confidence I have in its value is not diminished by the
>fact that I've been trading my instantiation of Elder's concept with some
>not insignificant results.
>
>But it would be very useful to me to have others look at it for different
>periods (my focus is the 1 minute ripple bar, I don't have time to focus on
>a daily ripple bar also), years, indices, and specific stock issues.
>
>Are there flaws in the essential concept? Can one derive higher period
>indicator values from lower period data merely by changing parm values? (I
>take it that Paul Chivers work on this question led him to say NO to this
>question.) Are there better indicators than Stoch, MACD, and ROC that I
>should be using? Does my instantiation work well with specific issues
>(MSFT, IBM, INTC, etc., etc., etc.)? Etc.? Etc.? Etc.?
>
>If I already had real system test results or didn't think it valuable to
get
>feedback on these feeble initial thoughts why would I make these posts? <G>
>
>Steven Buss
>Walnut Creek, CA
>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Richard Estes <restes@xxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; John E
Bush
><jb90036@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Monday, January 19, 1998 7:13 PM
>Subject: Re: A Difference with Elder...
>
>
>>I have heard real doubts that he trades at all. This doesn't stop him from
>>making valid observations. But how does his systems test? I have never
seen
>>outstanding results.
>>Richard Estes
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: John E Bush <jb90036@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Date: Monday, January 19, 1998 12:52 PM
>>Subject: Re: A Difference with Elder...
>>
>>
>>>At 10:40 AM 01/19/98 +0000, you wrote:
>>>>I've been talking up Elder so much here that I thought I should make it
>>>>clear that I don't really like one part of his "Triple Screen Trading
>>>>System" described in "Trading for a Living".
>>>>
>>>>
>>>This book is about 5 years old now; I wonder if Elder has updated,
refined
>>>or maybe even abandoned this system.
>>>
>>> john ( MS 5.11 & DOS, TechniFilter Plus 7.1.5 )
>>>
>>
>
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