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Thomas,
I am not foolish. Maybe bitting at the bit. Today was a good day because
it is the beginning of the fiscal year for some funds. But if we do
continue to see good up/down volume on the NYSE over the next week plus
the rest of this week. It should be enough to propel the market forward.
>From a technical point of view we bolted (at the open) away from the 200
day MA. Which is a big deal to some TAnalysts. If you look at where the
DJIA closed, it closed slightly above a major level of resistence. SO
from a technical point of view this is a good position. This way the
market can move up gradually with out the fear of facing resistence for
a while.
I hope we don't have big days like this too often because folks want
their profits too soon.
I also think that since we had increasing volume as prices declined a
week ago, that this eliminated a great deal of sellers from the market.
If we follow a reasonable trend toward the end of the year we might 8750
in the DJIA. Of course I am assuming that the 4-5 things I am looking
for become present in the exchanges.
I am still being careful though.
Harley
Simianer wrote:
> Harley,
>
> be careful! I donīt believe in already *healthy* market. Look at ROCs
> of different time
> interval. 5-day-ROC is at a very overbought level. Last occurence:
> 1991. During the last
> 10 years it hit only once higher values: 1987.
> But the longer term ROCs even havenīt left their oversold areas. For
> me thatīs a typical
> *panic buyout* (Donīt let the market go up again without me!).
> Same indication I get from my Stochastic system.
>
> My opinion: Maybe one or two days up (but slower than today), then the
> market should start
> to reverse course and really build a bottom around the latest lows.
>
> We will see!
>
> Best wishes
>
> Thomas
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