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<H3>
Yes. I downloaded it and windows said that it was not a valid win32 application
so I was not able to try it out. I am curious so if anyone does get
it to work please let me know what you think.</H3>
<H3>
Thanks, Ramon</H3>
<P>michael.arnoldi@xxxxxxxx wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>a new "market forcast" trial version is now available
on the internet.
<BR>from "delphi-software"
<BR>has anyone tried it yet ?
<P>mike</BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Oct 12 17:00:36 1997
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Resent-Date: Sun, 12 Oct 1997 17:42:59 -0600
To: Greatelto@xxxxxxx
From: "Harley Meyer" <Harley.D.Meyer-2@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: DJI Update
Reply-To: Harley D Meyer <Harley.D.Meyer-2@xxxxxxxxxx>
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Date: Sun, 12 Oct 1997 17:57:44
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Status:
Jerry,
You are correct that I am missing something.
But first let me clarify a few things.
This is actually an analysis of the NYSE (with emphasice on 'exchange'):
1) New highs - new lows
2) Up/down vol ratio
3) Total volume.
(Neither of these are specific to the DJI, S&P500,etc.)
2 & 3 are the fuel that drive the exchange.
(Note: I said exchange & not market.)
Although the index that shows up on the .gif is the DJIA you could replace the
S&P 500 or NYSE composite and get just about the same results as far as seeing
corresponding time periods when the 3 indexes correct. In other words they all
correct at about the same time, but correct by different amounts. So the 3
points above are very broad based.
The patterns (1, 2 & 3) that I am presenting are actually patterns for the
Exchange. When we get into the Index(s) and drawing a channel to determine the
trend. This is the only analysis that becomes specific to the index.
Now lets take, (pause) ooooooh, let's say a half a step back to the beginning.
I have been doing TA for less than a year(a novice). As you know it all comes
in small bits. Learning comes from individuals like yourself & others who are
willing to share, books & experience. So as I grasp & understand one area or
indicator with comfort, I move to a new area to learn. But as time goes by, I
realize that what I have grasped. Was only part of the picture and that a
greater refinement needs to be made on what I have learned.
Now taking 1/4 step forward. To repeat that you are correct.
So where do I go from here? Taking your suggestions I have no certainty that
the Russell has any correlation with the AIM funds. Unless it is a small cap
fund. Now the fund type helps me to identify an area of the market, but doesn't
help completely. My current analysis (as it relates to mutual funds) tells me
the condition of the field(s) (NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ), but tells me nothing about
the teams( mutual funds, [securities]) that play on the field(s). Unless one of
the funds is based upon a major index that also has data available.
So where does this leave me. One thing is to go back to technical analysis on
the funds themselves. (Which I had not liked since I had not found anything I
liked or felt comfortable with). I also have to say it isn't on a high
priority list either. There are quite a few guys in our local MS group who are
into mutual funds who can give me some help.
I may find another method as well. Who knows.
Thanks for forcing me to think about this a bit sooner than what I would have
done on my own.
Harley Meyer
On Sun, 12 Oct 1997 01:45:30 -0400 (EDT),
Greatelto@xxxxxxx wrote...
>Harley....
>
>I notice in your post you are basing investment strategy on the DJIA, which
>is a measure of only 30 stocks, and the AIM Funds group, which basically
>follows an "earnings surprise and momentum" model.
>
>Now there is nothing wrong with this, except for the fact that it might not
>be broad enough. Have you considered using the S&P 500 and maybe the Russell
>2000 which would incorporate large and small cap stocks? As far as the AIM
>Funds group goes, they are an excellent manager but their philosophy is
>certainly not all encompassing. Maybe you are leaving something uncovered
>using such a narrow base to study.
>
>Just a thought....
>
>Jerry
>
>
Harley Meyer
meyer093@xxxxxxxxxx
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