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<x-html><html><head></head><BODY bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><p><font size=3 color="#000080" face="Book Antiqua"><i>Hi MS'ers,<br>After several months working with Windows NT 4, today I got<br>my first application error.<br>I converted 2 MS ( I'm running MS 6 ) files to Excel 7. Opened <br>Excel, tried to copy one file into the other, Dr Watson reports <br>an application error.<br>The system doesn't crash, but Excel is closed at once.<br>One thing I noticed: Apparently for the MS to Excel conversion,<br>the Downloader converts the files in a previous format version of <br>Excel. <br>Anyone with a clue of what's going on?, is it you Neal?, Jim?, Lionel?<br>Frank?, Carey?, Harley?, EQUIS??.<br>Thanks for any input.<br>Regards.<br><br>Efrain<br><font color="#0000FF"><u>efrain12@xxxxxxxxxxxx</u><font color="#000080"></p>
</font></font></font></body></html></x-html>From ???@??? Wed Sep 10 10:28:38 1997
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Date: Wed, 10 Sep 1997 11:59:05 -0500
From: Robert Doeden <bdoeden@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Date: Wed, 10 Sep 1997 11:55:01 -0500
From: Robert Doeden <bdoeden@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Re: Commodities, SE Asia
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Followup remarks on previous post:
DOLLAR: The $ has been trading well above its 50 day ave. Corrected back to this ave on 8/29.
Retraced about 50% of the decline on 9/2. Has now fallen back and today has penetrated below
the 50 day ave. STOCHASTICS, MACD & OBTR are all negative.
DMARK: MACD's buy signal on 8/8 was confirmed by OBTR on 8/25. While STOCHASTICS, MACD & OBTR
all remain positive and the mark has moved up from 9/4 I'm not overly comfortable with a
position here because of potential news on the Euro. I have personally taken a position in the
Swiss rather than the Mark because it is outside the Euro.
SWISS FRANK: STOCHASTICS, MACD & OBTR all remain positive. Stronger than mark. Watching to
see if Dec contract will penetrate above 68.85 level. I have a Sept position that I have to
close out this week. Will probably not roll into Dec.
YEN: Has been weaker than the Swiss or Mark until yesterday. STOCHASTICS & MACD have both
given Buy signals (MACD today). Not yet confirmed by OBTR. Have small position in Sept that
I'll roll into Dec this week. Will add to my position on any weakness.
COPPER: Has moved down slightly from 9/4. Almost every news item on copper is bearish. Funds
are short. They keep trying to break it down to hit the stops under 96 re:Dec. Unsuccessful so
far. I have only a couple of Dec contracts I bot at 99. I was early but am comfortable.
STOCHASTICS & MACD have issued weak buy signals. Not confirmed by OBTR yet. Will probably add
to my position if the OBTR confirms.
STOCKS: OBTR continues with sell signals on the large caps. Has not given sell signal on NASD
or midcaps which have remained strong. OBTR gave a sell signal on the Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index on 8/29 and this index has been weaker than the NASD this month. Also a
Computer Index I follow (Fidelity Select Computer Fund) is one of the weakest of all the
Fidelity Select Funds. Would be very cautious on the computer & semiconductor stocks. I still
think the computer stocks are the color tv stocks of many years age. Probably most of you
don't remember when these stocks were hot. Half of the hot color tv stocks of that period are
out of business and stiff competition has killed the rest witness Zenith. Stocks like Gateway,
Compaq et al are going to get squeezed. You can buy a good computer today for about $1,500. A
short time back that computer would have cost $2,500. If their margins remain the same there
is a lot less profit on a $1,500 computer than a $2,500 one. The currency shakeup in SE Asia
will have an effect in that hard disks will get cheaper so temporarily profits may get better
until competition reduces prices further. In my view semiconductors are a different
situation. I certainly wouldn't want to be long Gateway, Dell or Compaq.
The SE Asia country funds have rallied from their lows on 8/29. Am looking for a retest of the
lows before I look seriously. I think they are well worth watching. I'm particularly watching
the Singapore Fund (SGF) and the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ) which holds the Japanese blue chips
which will benefit from the surge in exports. OBTR on any of these funds is negative and will
remain negative for awhile.
Bob Doeden
Chicago
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Robert Doeden wrote on Thursday 9/4:
> Some comments about markets I'm watching:
>
> DOLLAR: Dollar index peaked on 8/6. Corrected to 50 day
> average and ralleyed back about 50% of the drop. MACD &
> OBTR are both indicating that the rally will fail. Look for
> purchasing opportunities in the Swiss ,Mark & Yen.
>
> DMARK: MACD gave buy signal on 8/8 and OBTR confirmed on
> 8/25.
>
> SWISS: MACD gave buy signal on 8/8 also and OBTR confirmed
> on 8/15.
>
> YEN: STOCHASTICS gave a Buy signal on 9/3. Not confirmed
> yet by MACD and OBTR. Behind the Swiss & Mark. Southeast
> Asia turmoil has contributed to this.
>
> COPPER: In downtrend since mid June. In spite of much
> negative press has held above 96.00. MACD & OBTR are close
> to giving a Buy buy signal. This contract bears close
> watching.
>
> My comments are based on the following indicators and their
> periods:
>
> Stochastics - %d=5 mov ave=3 %d mov ave=3
> Macd - 12-26-9
> Obtr - 10-10-10
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