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Some comments about markets I'm watching:
DOLLAR: Dollar index peaked on 8/6. Corrected to 50 day
average and ralleyed back about 50% of the drop. MACD &
OBTR are both indicating that the rally will fail. Look for
purchasing opportunities in the Swiss ,Mark & Yen.
DMARK: MACD gave buy signal on 8/8 and OBTR confirmed on
8/25.
SWISS: MACD gave buy signal on 8/8 also and OBTR confirmed
on 8/15.
YEN: STOCHASTICS gave a Buy signal on 9/3. Not confirmed
yet by MACD and OBTR. Behind the Swiss & Mark. Southeast
Asia turmoil has contributed to this.
COPPER: In downtrend since mid June. In spite of much
negative press has held above 96.00. MACD & OBTR are close
to giving a Buy buy signal. This contract bears close
watching.
My comments are based on the following indicators and their
periods:
Stochastics - %d=5 mov ave=3 %d mov ave=3
Macd - 12-26-9
Obtr - 10-10-10
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John Bollinger (Bollinger bands) appeared on CNBC on Tuesday
commenting on the problems in SE Asia saying that this is a
Buying opportunity. Said he has started to buy. There has
been some bounce back in the country funds from this area
that trade on the NYSE. I haven't started buying yet myself
but am watching the situation closely. From past experience
(painfully learned) I find that patience is rewarded. I
usually look for a rally and then a retest of the low before
taking positions. I also watch the MACD & OBTR closely.
Both are a long way from giving a buy signal. Some of the
funds I'm watching are:
MF Malaysia Fund
JEQ Japan Equity Fund (Japan large caps. Now about 16%
over NAV)
SAF Scudder New Asia Fund
SGF Singapore Fund
TTF Thai Fund
Check the Monday issue of the WSJ for the NAV on these
Funds.
There are also WEBS on these countries. I haven't traded
any of the WEBS so I'll have to brush up on them myself.
Regarding the overall market - we've had a bounce back to
where I would expect if the downtrend is going to resume.
The market is going to have to prove itself to me by
advancing convincingly above 8022. Until then I remain
cautious. If the $ does weaken, which my charts indicate, I
would expect weakness in the market and bonds. I remain
primarily invested in natural gas stocks which continue to
show strength. Will review closely my positions in these
stocks in October when colder weather hits.
Comments by others on these remarks are welcome.
Bob Doeden
Chicago
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