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I had commented before about the trend. When will it change.
This past weekend I emailed about JF & pre-JF.
The weekly JF produced last Friday for this up coming Friday Aug 29 was
7569.08.
So if the DJI stays above (JF =) 7569.08 by Friday we know that the downward
trend could be weakening.
However, last Fridays close on the DJI was 7887.91. We closed at 7787.33 today.
So is the glass half empty or half full?
Looking at JF we could say that we could have aproximately a 200 pt drop by
Friday Aug 29. Or it could move up about 100 points to keep us on an uptrend.
Who knows?
Now on a daily basis. The down trend is the current trend.
The daily JF for tomorrow is 7690.24.
Oooooh. Is the cup half empty or half full.
Will we drop below JF= 7690.24 ?
It is always an interesting question on the downside.
Why?
Take MU a few weeks ago when it ran up to 61 intraday. It had 7 up days in a
row. One of those days had a gain of about 4.5 pts.
What follows is a table of JF & the close of MU.
Day date close JF
1 8/7/97 58.375 61
2 8/8/97 56.75 61.0417
3 8/11/97 55.125 58.2083
4 8/12/97 50.125 52.7917
Day 1 was easy. It wasn't going to 61 based on Stochastics.
Day 2 was really easy. yep it's still headed down.
Day 3 was not as easy since it could go from 56 3/4 to 58. It still went down.
At the end of Day 3 I get JF 52.7917 and think that this will be the last down
day. Possible an up day.
Day 4-Wouldn't you know it dropped below 52.7917.
Day 5-The next day it gapped down.
The point is you don't really know. But by taking simple formulas and solving
for the close & shifting the all the variables forward 1 time period. You get
some numbers that you can watch for during the day. It adds to the investing
experience. It makes it fun.
Harley Meyer
meyer093@xxxxxxxxxx
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