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On a daily basis, one thing I am watching closely is the UP/Down Vol ratio on
the NYSE. Looking at the daily charts I watch how the 10 day MA of Up/down vol
relates to the 50 day MA of Up/down vol.
Since during a market decline the 10 day MA < 50 day MA. The question then
becomes. What up/down vol will make then equal.
well if I set them equal to each other. THEN DO SOME ALGEBRA. Next shift all
time periods forward 1 time period. Since I want a number that I can watch for
the next day. I end up with this MS formula:
(25/2)*(sum(Indicator,48)/50-sum(Indicator,8)/10)
So the number that this formula produce is the value that is need for the next
day to make the 50 day MA = 10 day MA.
SO for tomorrow we need an up/down vol ratio of 11.0037 to make them equal.
I dought that that will happen.
Hence the trend will more than likely continue downward.
Harley Meyer
meyer093@xxxxxxxxxx
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