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For those of you who remember or keep records, on Feb 19,1997, I posted the
following message to this group:
"Yesterday's close (2/18/97) on the SPX at 816.49 completed a thirteen count
on the DeMark sequen.... after a valid SELL Setup 9 count. Repeat SELL. These
counts reflect a valid pre-setup condition and intersection. These........"
The SPX then began its 9.6% correction to close at 737.65 on 4/11/97. I take
no particular pride in that call. It happened and I posted the above as a
warning.
Well, de ja vu all over again. Maybe!!! DeMark Sequent.... SELL signals
came up as follows (Some followed by "Recycle" signals which supposedly
negate the SELL signal):
Thirteen Count Recycle
2-Day Flip
SPX 500 7/24/97 8/4/97
8/8/97
SPX 100 7/30/97 8/1/97
8/8/97
NYSE Composite 7/24/97 8/4/97
8/4/97
DOW Composite 7/30/97 8/1/97
8/4/97
DOW Industrials 7/29/97 8/1/97
8/4/97
Bank Index 7/23/97 None
8/4/97
Small Cap Index 8/4/97 None
8/8/97
NBX-Nasdaq Index 7/31/97 None
8/8/97
XBD-Brokerage Index 7/28/97 None
8/7/97
TRX-Transportation Index 7/31/97 8/4/97
8/8/97
Russell 3000 7/24/97 8/4/97
8/8/97
Russell 1000 7/24/97 8/4/97
8/8/97
When a Recyle signal occurs, the count to thirteen begins all over again. As
such the Recycle signal, while recognizing that there may still be more
buyers out there, may be a prelude that the last buyer to buy may be just
around the corner and its time to sell.
For what it's worth, I sold over 65% of my holdings Friday AM at the open.
For those who are not familiar with DeMark or the above references to
"Thirteen Count, Recycle and Flip" read the book: The New Science of
Technical Anaysis" by Tom DeMark, available from Traders Press or any good
book store.
Jim Barone
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