Ed,
The fact that certain sectors and individual issues
outperform the broad averages during various periods is a given. As a
result, irrespective of specific trading time frames (e.g., day/minute to buy
and hold) everybody is a market timer in the sense that buying is based on
the belief that within the individual's time frame a sale can be made for a
profit. Use of an appropriate "system(s)" whether mechanical,
discretionary, or a mixture is essential to trading/investing success (i.e.,
arguably beats having a "dream"). Whether systems must fail at some
point, as Howard claims, is certainly questionable and at best, imo,
applies for the most part to strictly mechanical
methods.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
Sent: June 02, 2009 2:43 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Do all trading
systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's book
Wave,
I should have included the time frame I was
ranking over. My ranking is EOD, for trades lasting from a few weeks to
a few months - basically swing trading.
The point I was trying to make
was that Howard Bandy may be right, but there are still sectors of the market
that outperform the broad averages like the S&P - at least
over the short term.
Another point that Bandy makes is that very short
term trading systems (day trading) seem more resistant to breaking - so all
may not be lost. Finally, another curious feature is that an end of the
month trade covered in his book is well known but continues to work - witness
the last few days of trading ! !
ReefBreak
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"wavemechanic" <fimdot@xxx> wrote:
>
> Happen to be doing
well now. How about KOL in 11/08?
> ----- Original
Message -----
> From: Ed Hoopes
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: June 02, 2009 12:58 PM
> Subject:
[amibroker] Re: Do all trading systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's
book
>
>
> I guess that we all need to get
better at market timing if we're going to trade SPY.
>
> Out of the 1600 or so ETF-CEF funds there are a few that
stand out - all are sector funds that happen to be doing well.
>
> Check out:
> KOL -
Coal
> PWND - Wind Energy
> IDX
- Indonesia
> PSTL - Steel
>
> ReefBreak
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
>
>
> > Yes, last year was the real benchmark for
managers/investors/traders ... I hope I learned my lessons ready for the next
one. High volatility and correlated screaming bear years are here to stay....
they are the inevitable consequence of momentum trading, which is a self
perpetuating system until the music stops and someone is left holding the
parcel.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"wavemechanic" <fimdot@> wrote:
> >
>
> > > I suspect that these funds are not run by
black boxes although the managers are working within a defined
methodology. In any case, over the last couple of years the picture is a
little different relative to the S&P500. In that case, all are in
the same ballpark (a little higher/lower over time) except for two
underperformers - PSP and STH. So, relative to these funds make life
simple buy SPY and close your eyes.
> > >
> > > Bill
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
----- Original Message -----
> > > From:
Ed Hoopes
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: June 02, 2009 11:02
AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Do all
trading systems stop working? - Howard Bandy's book
> >
>
> > >
> > >
There are publicly traded funds organized around various trading
systems. Below are a few for comparison:
> > >
> > > NFO - Insider
Info
> > > STH -
Stealth
> > > XRO - Sector
Rotation
> > > PIQ - Magni
Quant
> > > PSP - Private
Equity
> > > FVI - ValueLine 100
Stocks
> > > BWV - Covered
Calls
> > > CSD - Spin Off
Companies
> > > DEF - Defensive
Stocks
> > > EZY - Low PE Ratio
Stocks
> > >
> >
> Now take each one of the above and do a relative performance
to the overall market - like VTI Vanguards Total Market ETF - and you can see
how well they work.
> > >
> >
> NFO, PSP, EZY top the list with a modest out performance
using my ranking algorithm. The majority equal the market or
underperform.
> > >
> >
> For me the most disappointing is FVI only as good as the
broad market - so much for $650.00/yr fundamental/technical analysis
newsletter. XRO - is the worst.
> > >
> > > ReefBreak
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
>
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