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I concur 100% on finding an "optimal" solution and agree there are solid mathematical models in place which serve as an excellent point of departure. I for one am not interested in re-inventing the wheel, just looking for the best way to test and implement them with the limited time and programming ability I have at my disposal.
The whole idea of optimum is a tricky concept though. As I'm sure you are aware, the optimum solution is always changing and evolving and thus, also highly susceptible to curve-fitting. While I consider myself a quantitative trader, I tend to approach things with "fuzzy-logic" and try and conceptualize of solutions as bad, better, good but never "best". I know that is a somewhat unsophisticated approach but I know this is an area if my trading that can be made much "better", as defined by more money in my account with less risk. A little better is good but a lot better is even better ;)
I really appreciate your participation (and other's) in this dialog and am excited about watching it evolve over time. I also have a lot of new reading to do!
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> <snip>the goal of this thread was to find a way to exploit my real-time
> observations regarding lower account drawdowns when trading multiple strategies
> than what I would have experienced if traded them independently. Most of my
> opinions on this are admittedly 100% anecdotal but they are at least based on my
> real-time observations with capital at-risk.
>
> I am sure there are probably better or more academically sound ways of doing
> this but my own personal preference is to develop the systems independently
> using whatever criteria I deem important and the only optimizations done at the
> multi-system level would be the tweaking of position size to allow me to trade
> each a bit more aggressively while staying below my pain threshold.<snip>
>
> I am working on improving my knowledge of 'portfolio efficiency' so I appreciate the feedback provided by people like Angelo and yourself who have 'real life' experience of trading multiple systems.
>
> Based on my theoretical considerations and 'bench testing, I think it is unlikely that we will find the optimum solution (whatever our objectives are) by:
>
> - relying on observation and experimentation in real life trading
> - blindly optimizing our way to it
> - hitting on some lucky allocations
>
> IMO portfolio efficiency is an excercise in maths and the math models already exist.
>
> There is no need to mimic Vince, or anyone else, but I believe that a consideration of the math models will quickly move us closer towards our personal goals.
>
>
> So far no one has suggested any portfolio model other than Vince's and the reference by Angelo.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bh.hicks" <bh.hicks@> wrote:
> >
> > Howard,
> > I saw your post and thank you for participating in this discussion. I am eagerly awaiting your new book. Please let me know when it is available for pre-sale!
> >
> > All three of the systems I currently trade were developed as stand-alone systems (on a different platform) and I have been trading all three for a couple of years now (with constant tinkering). 2 of the 3 were profitable in '08 and the 3rd was down only about 6%. The long/short index system had a record year last year at 77% although it is under-performing thus far this year.
> >
> > This approach has given me an average CAGR of slightly over 30% for the past 3 years since I gave up discretionary trading. I am sure most people here pull down numbers way better than that but my only point is that this passed the point of being an academic exercise for me a couple of years ago.
> >
> > I am however an extremely conservative trader with very specific rules for how I position size. I went into it a little bit here...
> >
> > http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/138123
> >
> > but the goal of this thread was to find a way to exploit my real-time observations regarding lower account drawdowns when trading multiple strategies than what I would have experienced if traded them independently. Most of my opinions on this are admittedly 100% anecdotal but they are at least based on my real-time observations with capital at-risk.
> >
> > I am sure there are probably better or more academically sound ways of doing this but my own personal preference is to develop the systems independently using whatever criteria I deem important and the only optimizations done at the multi-system level would be the tweaking of position size to allow me to trade each a bit more aggressively while staying below my pain threshold.
> >
> > Thanks again for your participation and I am eager to follow the development of this topic and your new book.
> >
> > regards.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Howard B <howardbandy@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi bh --
> > >
> > > It was suggestions such as the one you made earlier in this thread that
> > > prompted me to write the posting on portfolio construction.
> > >
> > > You wrote:
> > > "---------------------------
> > > Out of curiosity ... are you finding it easy to come up with noncorrelated
> > > systems?
> > >
> > > Perhaps not "easy" but possible. Without going into too many details, the 3
> > > systems I currently trade do the following.
> > >
> > > System A - a long/short mean-reversion system that trades the S&P (ES or
> > > SPY) using short-term overbought/oversold levels. Average hold time is 3-5
> > > days, buys and sells the close.
> > >
> > > System B - a long only mean-reversion system that trades the entire stock
> > > market universe with a minimum price and liquidity requirements. It
> > > essentially buys short-term weakness on longer-term high relative strength
> > > stocks. Average hold time is 3-5 days, buys and sells the open.
> > >
> > > System C - a short only system that trades the entire stock market universe
> > > with a minimum price and liquidity requirements. I am very protective of
> > > this one because a short-only system that has an edge over the past 20 years
> > > through any market climate is rare but this system buys the open and sells
> > > the close of the same day.
> > >
> > > I need a longer-term system (2-3 week hold times) that buys strength rather
> > > than weakness to try and fill in the under-performance gaps during
> > > significant market rallies like what we are having now. I have found this
> > > extremely challenging to do quantitatively.
> > > ----------------------"
> > >
> > > The intent of my posting was to point out that there are several complex
> > > issues that should be considered when creating a portfolio of trading
> > > systems.
> > >
> > > They begin with analysis of the individual systems, asking questions such
> > > as:
> > >
> > > What are the optimum lengths of the in-sample periods for the three systems
> > > you are describing?
> > > Will the portfolio be created (the portfolio weights determined, and so
> > > forth) by re-selecting the parameter values for those systems as part of a
> > > portfolio?
> > > Or, by using the trade results that were obtained by running each
> > > separately?
> > > Are the results that were obtained by running each separately in-sample or
> > > out-of-sample?
> > > And so forth.
> > >
> > > Best wishes on the project (no sarcasm intended) -- let us all know how it
> > > turns out.
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > > Howard
> > >
> > >
> > > On Sat, May 9, 2009 at 12:53 PM, bh.hicks <bh.hicks@> wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Graham,
> > > > Let me think about specifically what my needs are regarding this over the
> > > > next few weeks and I may contact you. I am a little reluctant to pursue a
> > > > "custom" solution as I think there are others on this board way more capable
> > > > of designing a better and more robust solution than I but it may make sense.
> > > > Thank you.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, Graham
> > > > <kavemanperth@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > It is possible to do, you just need to write this into the advanced
> > > > > backtest coding, low level coding is advisable. Takes a bit of work
> > > > > and ability to balance balls like a juggler.
> > > > >
> > > > > --
> > > > > Cheers
> > > > > Graham Kav
> > > > > AFL Writing Service
> > > > > http://www.aflwriting.com
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > 2009/5/6 bh.hicks <bh.hicks@>:
> > > > > > Ang,
> > > > > > Ah yes, I had gathered as much but thank you for your candor. I have
> > > > owned AB for over a year now but have just recently began using it for more
> > > > than a general market scanner due to some limitations I ran into with
> > > > Traders Studio and a general frustration with the development cycle on that
> > > > platform. Other than a few issues I have run into (like this one), I have
> > > > been very pleased with AB and also see myself moving away from Traders
> > > > Studio for 'most' things.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > This would certainly be an amazing addition to AB. Of course, the
> > > > feature would probably be lost on 90% of users so I understand the
> > > > reluctance to go down that path but I would certainly be willing to pay as
> > > > much if not more than I paid for AB itself for a robust plugin that was able
> > > > to do this well. I suspect many others would as well.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "ang_60" <ima_cons@> wrote:
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "bh.hicks" <bh.hicks@> wrote:
> > > > > >> >
> > > > > >> > I am basically looking for a way to have AmiBroker run multiple
> > > > systems concurrently in order to examine how trading multiple non-correlated
> > > > strategies affect drawdowns.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> As you are migrating from another software I happen to know a bit, the
> > > > short answer: as of today, Amibroker is not capable of "built in multiple
> > > > systems testing" as TraderStudio's trading plan approach.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> This matter was raised long ago by myself and others: if you are a
> > > > registered user, you can check suggestion #406 in the feedback center, dated
> > > > 16 August 2006.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> In this list you can find very good programmers, claiming they are
> > > > able to get the multisystem/multimarket approach to work programming it by
> > > > scratch, but - to my knowledge - I've never seen a public (that is.... free)
> > > > code able to do what I think is needed (and that's includes the two links
> > > > provided in this discussion).
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Just for clarity, this doesn't want to sound as a critic: I own
> > > > TraderStudio too, but by now the software I most use for testing is - by far
> > > > - Amibroker.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ------------------------------------
> > > > > >
> > > > > > **** IMPORTANT PLEASE READ ****
> > > > > > This group is for the discussion between users only.
> > > > > > This is *NOT* technical support channel.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT send an e-mail directly to
> > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > > > >
> > > > > > TO SUBMIT SUGGESTIONS please use FEEDBACK CENTER at
> > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/feedback/
> > > > > > (submissions sent via other channels won't be considered)
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
------------------------------------
**** IMPORTANT PLEASE READ ****
This group is for the discussion between users only.
This is *NOT* technical support channel.
TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
TO SUBMIT SUGGESTIONS please use FEEDBACK CENTER at
http://www.amibroker.com/feedback/
(submissions sent via other channels won't be considered)
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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