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Re: [amibroker] SPSO vs Trib vs CMAE, was: random optimization?



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Steve,

that's an interesting observation. So far I had exclusively used CMAE, 
but now I've applied SPSO to some of my trading systems by performing an 
extensive walk-forward optimization.

My (surely not representative) observations are that the IS results are 
rather similar regardless if I use CMAE and SPSO. However, I found that 
the OOS results with SPSO were always worse than with CMAE. This seems 
to support your findings that CMAE tends to find the broad plateaus - and 
this leads eventually to better OOS performance (through better 
generalization). Since I never trade a system without thorough WF 
testing, that's the crucial aspect for me as IS results alone are more 
or less worthless.

I should add that I used OptimizerSetOption("Runs", 1 ) and   
OptimizerSetOption("MaxEval", 1000 ).  Different parameters might lead to 
different conclusions. 

Greetings,

Thomas


Steve Dugas wrote:
> To test the built-in IO engines, I ran a few exhausive opts and saved
> the results, then ran lots of IO tests and compared them to the
> exhaustive results to see what the IO's found and also what they
> missed. You could say that CMAE seems to take the "safe" approach,
> IMHO it finds the broad plateaus pretty well but as you might guess
> they are usually far from the most profitable. In my experience, the
> other two IO engines will generally find those too but they also find
> a lot of the smaller and more profitable ones, which you can then run
> a mini exhaustive opt on to get a more complete picture.


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