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Difficult to know,at first glance, if the div yields reflect future
earnings/divs i.e. movements, based on analyst estimates, have
already been priced in.
examples:
Alumina div yield 20%, div estimates fwd 2yrs minus 11%
Woolworths div yield 4%, div estimates fwd 2 years plus 11%
Since the fund managers/analysts control the market they are never
wrong (nomianlly) until new info proves otherwise.
BTW
Someone was asking about methods to measure relative (under/over)
performance of individual stocks .... from that discussion it is
obvious that accurately nominating the start date of a trend is the
difficult part of the equation (personally I thing
MajorPeaks/MajorTroughs is as good as anything if we must make an
arbitrary judgement).
Just wondering if the yields might indicate overbought/oversold
stocks independently of time i.e. it doesn't matter when they started
to trend up or down but only what their relative yield is now.
If that theory were to be proven correct then stocks like WOW don't
have as much potential growth in them as stocks with high yields that
will hold their divs better than analysts estimates.
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/aks?s=WOW.AX
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/aks?s=AWC.AX
http://www.afr.com/home/tables.aspx
Whatever happens it is definitely not wise to pre-empt the charts.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> Interesting situation in the Aus markets at the moment.
>
> Today the official cash rate was slashed by another 100 BP to 4.25%
>
> http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/home-loans/features/feature-interest-
> rate-dec-2/index.html
>
> (as an aside, the majority of housing loans mortgages in Aus have
> variable interest rates so rate cuts flow straight into the
mortgage
> belt pockets ... c.f. to other countries where fixed rates are the
> norm for housing mortgages).
>
> At the same time "falling share prices have pushed up the div
yields
> on some stocks to to levels not seen for decades" e.g.
>
> Telecom NZ 16.5
> National Australia Bank 14%
> Transurban 12%
> Telstra 9.8*
>
> Note: examples and not recommendations.... forward yield, grossed
up
> for franking (Aus tax break for high income earners).
>
> (quote and yields from the Australian Financial Review Dec 2,2008).
>
>
> There are three possible scenarios, based on this:
>
> - companies that are in trouble will cut dividends
> - companies that might be heading for trouble, or who want to take
> the opportunity to beef up the books, will cut dividends
> - some companies will, at the least, maintain divs at previous
levels
> (those with little debt and/or unaffected cash flows?)
>
> All this at a time when margin loans are cheaper than div yields!
>
> Who said there was no such thing as a free lunch in the markets?
>
> Anything like it in other international markets?
>
> brian_z
>
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